Weekend Preview: February 10-12

Weekend Preview #1

Kenyon's Jasper Tennis Center is the place to be for D3 tennis fans this weekend

Now that I've reached the #20 mark for the season previews, I thought it might be nice to take a little break and talk about matches that are actually happening. Before I get into it though, I'd like to spare a few words for the first "match between ranked teams" that took place last weekend. Kenyon crushed Kalamazoo 8-1, but the match was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Three singles matches went to three sets, and the Hornets were close to taking 2 out of 3 doubles. Kalamazoo might have a chance to get themselves back in the top 30 this year, but unfortunately for them, they will most likely fall out of the national scene after this season, as their top 3 are all seniors, and they've had three incredibly mediocre recruiting classes

Friday


#19 Case Western @ #7 Kenyon


I just did the Case preview, so anyone who read that knows that I really like them, but there's really no reason for me to think that they would beat Kenyon, especially on Kenyon's courts. Kenyon only lost one player, and brought in a much stronger recruiting class than Case. Still, I think this match could be closer than a lot of people might expect, and I'm going to predict a 6-3 Kenyon victory.

Saturday


#12 NC Wesleyan vs. #19 Case Western


I'm assuming this match is going to be played on Kenyon's courts, since NCW is playing Kenyon on Sunday. This match actually has some upset potential. Case plays strong doubles, NWC plays weak doubles, and NWC struggle at Indoors to start the season last year. I expect Case to take #2 doubles, and you would have to pick NWC at #1 doubles, but if Case can take either 1 or 3 doubles, the Battling Bishops could be in for a tough loss. We obviously don't know where the strengths in these teams' singles lineups are this year, but if Case can find two wins in the 1-5 range, I think they are probably stronger at #6 indoors. I might look stupid for this in a couple days, but I'm actually going to take Case in a 5-4 upset over NC Wesleyan. You gotta pick some upsets sometimes, right?

Washington and Lee @ #7 Kenyon


There isn't much reason to think this will be a close match, but we will get a look at whether Washington and Lee's freshmen are ready to propel them back into the top 30. Kenyon 8-1.

#6 Santa Cruz @ #29 Whitman


Cruz returns to Whitman for its semi-annual pre-Indoors trip, and I would expect this match to go a lot like the last two. Whitman will probably ride a wave of emotion to a doubles victory, but Cruz will end up winning 8-1. I will be looking at the box score, however, to see if Cruz is ready to rebound from their tough Fall season and perform well at nationals. Whitman, on the other hand, is a program on the decline, and just can't seem to get the kind of recruits other schools are getting.

Sunday


#12 NC Wesleyan @ #7 Kenyon


This match should be the first real test for the Lords, and, more excitingly, it's the first match between top 15 teams this season. If NC Wesleyan is for real this year, they will have beaten Case and will get loud in Jasper Tennis Center. Kenyon, on the other hand, will be well-prepared after matches with Case, W&L, and Kalamazoo, and I doubt they will give up a match on their home courts. NCW hasn't played strong doubles for the past two years, but if they can win one, it will be #1 doubles. One doubles win would be enough to keep the Bishops in it because their singles are traditionally strong, but I think Kenyon is just too deep. I think they will win 2 and 3 doubles, as well as 3 out of the 3-6 singles positions, plus one of the remaining three positions (1 dubs, 1 and 2 singles) for a 6-3 victory.

#11 Chicago @ Kalamazoo


We saw that Kalamazoo is probably stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates, but that doesn't mean they're strong enough to beat the Maroons. Their home courts probably give them one victory, and a flaky performance from one of the Chicago singles players might give them another, but I'm predicting Chicago 8-1 or 7-2.

Season Preview #20: Cal Lutheran

#20 Cal Lu

Nick Ballou (So.??)

General Discussion


Two years ago, Cal Lu jumped into the top five sweeping the doubles and winning 1 and 2 singles with one of the best 1-2 punches in the country. After an amazing month, the rest of the country caught on, and their doubles cooled off. Still, they managed to jump from 30 to 12 in one year, which is pretty impressive. Last year, they gave a lot of that back when started off their season with a horrible tournament at Indoors, which not only saw them lose all three matches (two of them in heartbreaking fashion) but also ended Nick Ballou's season. The rest of the year, they played a lot of 6-3 matches. They had one of the best #1's in the country in Giuffrida, a great #1 doubles team, and got an amazing season from Justin Wilson, but they just couldn't win without Ballou. This year, they essentially trade Giuffrida for Ballou, which means they are capable of winning three matches against basically any team. The problem for them was that they couldn't buy a win at 5 or 6 singles last year, and if they want to improve their ranking this year, some of their new players will have to step in and win in those positions.

Where They'll Win


This is no mystery at all. They won 1, 2, and 3 singles against Middlebury, P-P, Redlands (sort of), and Claremont. They also got some good victories out of their #1 doubles team last year. They return their 2 and 3 singles players, Wilson and Worley, and they can essentially slot Ballou in for Giuffrida. I'm just going to cut this section a little short because I'm not telling anyone anything new by saying Cal Lu is strong at 1, 2, 3 singles and 1 doubles. Yeah...

Where They'll Lose


Well, they lost 4, 5, and 6 singles against all those teams I just mentioned. Sousa was actually a capable #4 singles player, and Kowalczyk made up half of a decent #2 doubles team with Wilson, but their 5 and 6 singles players were horrible. I'm not trying to be mean; they were just awful. It must have been weird for the team going into big matches basically knowing that they were going to lose 5 and 6 every time. Fortunately for the Kingsmen, they got two freshman this year, both of whom should be definitively better. I expect the bottom of Cal Lu's singles lineup to be weaker than the top of their lineup this year, but they will be much improved. If they can find some wins at 4, 5, and 6, they will start beating some top 15 teams.

Schedule Analysis


Cal Lu will run the gauntlet again this year, with 15 matches against ranked teams (that's not a misprint). It could be even more if Whittier can get themselves in the rankings. I'm not even going to try to go at it on a match-by-match basis, but I will say that, with so many opportunities, the Kingsmen will definitely capitalize. Of the teams that they play who are ranked above them, I would say Pomona, Kenyon, both Trinity's, Redlands, Bowdoin, Cruz, and maybe Williams are within striking distance. If they can win three of those matches, they will be in prime position for a Pool C bid. I think there's only room for one SCIAC team in Pool C, however, so will it be P-P, Redlands, and Cal Lu

Prediction


The only area that I think Cal Lu really needs to work on to be successful this year is the area between their ears. They can't afford any Ballou blowups, and they need Worley to be solid (and not third sets with the team score tied 4-4). Having more depth should take the pressure off Worley, and I think the Kingsmen will beat Redlands and move back into the 13-17 range, but I don't think their season will be as good as Pomona's (even though they could beat the Sagehens head-to-head). Accordingly, I see them just missing out on Pool C.

Season Preview #19: Case Western

#19 Case Western

Will Drougas (Fr.)

General Discussion


One of the most underrated stories from the 2011 season was the emergence of Case as a top 20 team. They went from giving some good teams a hard time in 2010 to actually beating three teams that are currently in the top 30 in 2011, including a more-impressive-than-it-looked-at-the-time 5-4 victory over Wisconsin-Whitewater. I think Case has the potential to continue its upward trend this year, as they bring in their very first 4-star recruit this year. The future definitely looks bright for the Spartans. They return all of their starters from last year, and their development has been great over the past three years. If their players have improved at the same rate as they have been, these guys could be a dark horse contender for a Pool C bid. To get one, however, they will have to leapfrog a number of teams, most notably Chicago and CMU.

Where They'll Win


Looking at the Spartans' result from last year, it looks like they either have a lot of players that are about the same in ability level, or they stacked their lineup. I'm inclined to believe the former, and with their two new recruits, that means they will be especially deep this year. One impressive aspect of their lineup, is that they managed to take #2 and #3 doubles pretty consistently against strong competition. A lot of second tier D3 teams have trouble fielding three strong doubles teams, but this tells me that the Case coach is particularly good at coaching doubles. If they can shore up the top end of their lineup, look for them to upset some teams this year, because it will be hard to come back against them if they take two out of three doubles.

Where They'll Lose


Even though they return all of their players from last year, the top of their lineup is probably their relative weakness. It just doesn't seem like they have the talent to compete with the best players from the teams that are consistently in the top 15. Accordingly, the onus for the Spartans' success this season might fall squarely on the shoulders of Sean Carr and William Drougas. Carr was solid against lesser competition, but the story of his season came down to him falling just short against the better #1's in the country like Stein and Nemerov. If he can make the jump this year, or if Drougas can step in and lead right away like Austin Chafetz did for Amherst a couple years ago, Case will definitely make the nation take notice. If not, they will probably lose a lot of close matches because of their inability to find wins at the top of their lineup

Schedule Analysis


If Case is ready to compete for a Pool C bid, we will know by the end of this weekend. They play Kenyon and NCW, and if they can beat either, they will make a huge jump in the rankings, and put Chicago on notice. Their next big match is against Depauw the following weekend, and that loser of that one might be out of NCAAs contention. Even if they lose that one, Case might be able to sneak into the tournament with a victory over Chicago, but that's a lot to ask for. Along the way they will have to avoid an upset, especially in the UAA tournament, where they almost lost to NYU last year, and the could come up against a hungry CMU or even have a rematch with Chicago.

Prediction


In case you couldn't tell from the whole rhetoric of this preview, I definitely think Case is a program on the rise. I love it when teams can get a lot out of lower-ranked recruits, and it's exciting to think what they might be able to do now that they're getting a few players with more stars next to their names. Additionally, the Spartans' lineup is loaded with juniors and seniors, and they will definitely be extremely hungry. However, new to the scene as they are, they might not be able to handle the pressure that comes with competing for a Pool C bid. To get a Pool C bid, you literally cannot afford to lose to a team ranked below you,-- something Case came close to doing several times last year. I think this year will mark more progress for the Spartans, but not enough to get them into the tournament.

Season Preview #18: Trinity (CT)

#18 Trinity (CT)

General Discussion


Trinity (CT) strikes me as a team that is stuck perpetually in the 15-20 range of the national rankings. They don't have the clout or history to out-recruit their NESCAC rivals, but they can always pull enough good players from the talented New England section to stay competitive. They also seem to be more limited by the NESCAC "no play 'till March" rule than their higher-ranked cohorts because fewer teams are eager to schedule a team like Trinity that could kill their ranking (just ask Redlands). All of that aside, they look to have finally put together consecutive strong recruiting classes that, with hard work and good development, might allow them to break into the NESCAC top 4 a couple years from now. Unfortunately, they were hit hard by graduation last year, losing their #2 and 3 singles players along with another doubles player, so before things get better for the Bantams, they might get worse.

Where They'll Win

On paper, it looks like Trinity is deeper than most teams in the 15-20 range. They had the depth to hang with and beat Redlands at the bottom end of the lineup. They also destroyed Bates, and hung with their higher ranked NESCAC competitors. They don't have the depth to beat them, but they can beat anyone outside the top 10 with their depth. With regards to their match against Tufts, I see that as a whole-team choke. They probably lost the doubles on a wave of emotion, but they won five of the first sets in singles, and should have been on their way to an easy victory. But they somehow ended up losing in three at #3, 4, and 5, and the third set scores indicate to me that they just fell apart. Still, I would say that most of the time, they would beat Tufts with their depth, even with a doubles loss.

Where They'll Lose


The Bantams should still be relatively strong at the #1 singles spot with McCook returning from last year, but they lost their #2 and 3 singles players, and I think those are the positions that Trinity will be weak in this year. They did alright, but not great, at the #4 spot last year, which doesn't bode well if Marfatia has to move up to #2. Also, even though they have a strong recruiting class, most freshmen aren't ready to step in and play #2 singles in the NESCAC. I see this team as having one standout, and six or seven guys who would make excellent #4 singles players. If I'm right, that would make them solid at 4 and strong at 5 and 6, but weak at 2 and 3.

Schedule Analysis


Trinity starts its season with the annual NESCAC March migration to So Cal. Their first two matches against Whitman and Kalamazoo are definite trap matches, and they absolutely have to avoid a loss if they want any chance at making Pool C. If Cal Lu gets some good results this year, a win over them could help their chances, but any season that ends with the Bantams in the NCAA tournament has to start with a win over Bowdoin. Trinity is too far away from Williams, Amherst, and Middlebury to pull off an upset over either of them, even on their best day, but Bowdoin might be within reach. There simply isn't enough room in Pool C for four NESCAC teams, so if Trinity wants in, they will have to take Bowdoin's spot away from them.

Prediction


I just don't think the Bantams are good enough to beat the Polar Bears this year. If they can do a good job developing the talent from these next two recruiting classes, they will have a chance, but I think they're closer to Bates and Tufts than they are to Bowdoin. I see Trinity getting comfortable wins over Whitman, Kalamazoo, and either Bates or Tufts to maintain their ranking, but at the end of the season, I think they will be a few spots lower than they are right now.

Season Preview #17: Carnegie Mellon University

#17 Carnegie Mellon

Duke Miller

General Discussion


Two years ago, CMU broke into the top ten with a great season that included wins over Amherst, Redlands, Kenyon, Hopkins, and Trinity. Last year, they had a somewhat disappointing season, as they got beaten by Chicago, Depauw, Hopkins, and, most damagingly, Denison. If I were to turn this into a tennis analogy, I would say they broke serve in 2009 to get themselves in the top 10, then gave the break right back, and fell to about where they were after 2008. They graduated Nemerov and Mactaggert, probably their two best players, and definitely their #1 doubles team, but I was optimistic for them last spring before they lost their best recruit (and a 5-star no less) to USC. The story for them this year is going to be whether the bevy of recruits and returning players can help fill the void left by Nemerov and Mactaggert. They have plenty of chances to get that Pool C bid back from Chicago, but I'm not sure they have the players to do it.

Where They'll Win


Looking at their results from last year, there doesn't seem to be a consistent pattern. If I can say anything, it's that they are appropriately ranked. When they won, they did it with a team effort up and down the lineup. They took advantage of other teams' weaknesses, but succumbed to other teams' strengths. They might not have the same capacity to take advantage of teams that are weaker at the top of their lineup this year with the departure of Mactaggert and Nemerov, so Duke Miller will have to step up. On the up side, they only lost two players and they brought in six, so if three of them are "start ready," the Tartans could be deeper than they were last year. Basically, I have no idea where they'll win, but if you tell me who they're playing, I could refer you to the "where they'll lose" section of their preview and I would guess that's where the Tartans will win.

Where They'll Lose


This is essentially the same as what I said above. The Tartans will lose where their opponent is strong. They don't appear to have a specific strength that can beat anyone else's strength. I will add, however, that CMU might be particularly vulnerable in the #2 and #3 singles spots this year, and a lot will depend on whether or not Rao and King can step up. I'd say their nightmare matchup is a team like JHU that's strong all around, but just a little bit stronger than CMU at every position.

Schedule Analysis


The good news for CMU is that they will play three or four of the teams that they are trying to take a Pool C bid from. They start off right away with a match against Depauw that has huge Pool C implications. The loser will have a really hard time getting one of the six at-large bids because they will have a direct loss to one of their competitors. Their other big matches are against P-P, Bowdoin, and a potential UAA matchup with Chicago. I think they need to win at least two of these four matches to make Pool C. A wins against either NCW or Kenyon could trim that number to one, but they also have to avoid another nightmare loss to Denison (or Mary Washington). Overall, I would say this is probably the best-constructed schedule I've seen so far in terms of a team playing the matches that give it the best chance to succeed this season.

Prediction


Last year, people predicted bad things for Kenyon because of the loss of Greenberg, and look what happened. Other players stepped up, and they had an even better season. CMU is in a similar position, but they probably their two most important players. Any team can recover from losing one important player, but losing two is a lot to ask. The Tartans were poised to fill the void with an excellent recruiting class, but they lost their best recruit, which kind of left them where they were at the end of last season. I think these guys will get the two good wins that they need, but still fail to make Pool C because of a bad loss. That's probably just wishful thinking, though. I'm a sucker for parity.

Season Preview #16: Depauw

#16 Depauw

General Discussion


Depauw sort of flew under the radar last year. They played a strong schedule, and had some good wins (CMU and Rhodes), but they somehow didn't garner much attention. Hopefully, the Tigers can make some waves this year, as they return 5 out of 6 players, and bring in a solid recruiting class. The story for Depauw this year is their switch from the SCAC to the NCAC. That probably saves their athletic department a lot of money in travel expenses, but in tennis terms, it just means that Depauw has gone from being Trinity's little brother to being Kenyon's little brother. Still, the Tigers have the ability to win both to win the conference or to make the tournament through Pool C.

Where They'll Win


Outside of their match against Denison, Depauw played really solid doubles last year. They swept Chicago, and took two out of three against Rhodes, CMU, Luther, and Gustavus. They also played Emory, Trinity, and Wash U extremely close in doubles, and it was probably their inability to take #1 doubles against Trinity that cost them the conference tournament. Look for doubles to be strong for them again, as they have the option to keep two of their doubles team, and their #1 singles player from last year, Rardon, could make a good doubles team with anyone. Unfortunately, their three doubles teams were the only positions that produced consistently for them, and they had trouble finding wins across their singles lineup.

Where They'll Lose


Though the Tigers' singles lineup was somewhat inconsistent overall last year, their depth was particularly problematic. They lost 5 and 6 in almost all of their matches against ranked teams last year (neither the 5 or 6 finished in their match against CMU). They graduated Schouweiler, who was rock solid for them last year, and might have brought in one start-ready freshman. Their ability to win deep in the lineup will probably depend on how the returning bench players have developed. I'm sure some of their players have improved a lot, but I don't think Depauw is as deep as any of the teams in the top 15, which is what could hold them back from winning conference or Pool C.

Schedule Analysis


The Tigers start their D3 season in two weekend when they play Case, followed by CMU and Luther the following weekend. The other big matches on their schedule are Wisconsin-Whitewater, Emory, Wash U, and a potential conference championship match with Kenyon. I have to say that this schedule doesn't give them much of a chance to make Pool C. The only teams they play that are ranked ahead of them are Emory, Wash U, and maybe Kenyon. They have basically no chance to beat either Emory or Wash U, and if they beat Kenyon, they will make Pool A anyways. And that's all that I have to say about that.

Prediction


Like last year, Depauw's whole season is basically going to be decided by one match against Kenyon that will decide whether or not the will make the tournament. I predict that they'll get a couple wins against ranked teams like Case and Denison, but I think they will get upset by either CMU or W-W. I think they will come really close against Kenyon, but in the end, I think they'll lose either 5-4 or 6-3 and finish the year in the 18-22 range.

Season Preview #15: Redlands

#15 Redlands

Patrick Lipscomb (Fr.)

General Discussion


Let's take a quick moment to recognize the halfway point of season previews...... that was fun. Let's jump into a short discussion on Redlands. It's been a rough couple years for the once-great Redlands team. The old strategy of not traveling at all and giving every single player "merit-based" financial aid doesn't seem to be as effective anymore, but they need a niche that keeps them competitive in an environment dominated by academically prestigious schools. The Bulldogs seem to be perpetually in transition, and it's hard to predict who will stay on the team from one year to the next, but the incoming recruiting class at least has the potential to provide some sort of stability into the future, something this team desperately needs if they want to reclaim their place in the top ten.

Where They'll Win


Redlands played sneaky-good doubles last year. They won doubles against Cal Lu twice, P-P twice, Middlebury, and came within a couple late breaks of sweeping Emory. Even though they will be switching out many of their doubles players, I expect them to play good doubles again this season. They always bring tons of energy into a match, and I think that helps them compete exceptionally well as a team for 40-minutes. The problem for them is probably maintaining that energy for a 4- or 5-hour match. Regardless, the Bulldogs have always been a strong doubles team, and that will probably continue this season.

Where They'll Lose


Redlands suffered a couple heart-breaking losses last year. They lost three matches 7-5 or 7-6 in the third to lose against Trinity (CT). They lost a third set with the match tied 4-4 against P-P the first time they played. And then they got swept by P-P in singles the second time, despite winning two out of three doubles and four first sets. I don't know if they're out of shape, worn down from the heat and their brutal schedule, or if it's a mental thing, but it seems like they are beatable if you can keep them on the court for a long time. With regard to position, I don't think that they're particularly weak at any position. Dahl and Hyde should provide a solid base at the top of the lineup, and between the returning starters and the freshmen, we can expect them to be exceptionally deep. With Redlands, like Hopkins, it might not be so much a matter of where they'll lose as it is a matter of when. They will have to get over some of the mental scarring from last season if they want to make it back in the top 10, but for the first time in a long time, they might not have the talent to do it anyways.

Schedule Analysis


Redlands actually starts competing in a couple of days, but their D3 schedule doesn't start for a few more weeks. Like always, the Bulldogs will be playing a ton of ranked teams, and like always, they will all be on their home courts (with the exception of SCIAC matches). If they want to get back into Pool C, they need to beat one of Trinity (TX), Williams, Cruz, CMS, or P-P without accumulating bad losses against Bates, Tyler, MWU, Brandeis, Cal Lu, etc. etc. etc. I feel like Redlands has always tried to get into the tournament by the law of averages. If they play enough good teams, they're bound to play a great match once, get one good win, and use that to distinguish themselves from the rest of the Pool C teams, as they've always been solid enough to avoid an upset. D3 tennis is getting better, though, and it might be harder for them to avoid an upset now than it has ever been before.

Prediction


Redlands' success this year depends so much on their freshman class that I don't even want to try. I will probably look dumb for this later, but I think they're going to lose to either Cal Lu or Mary Washington this year and see themselves drop outside the top 15 for the first time in a long time.