If anyone who is going to be at Indoors this weekend is interested in writing some guest articles for the blog, please e-mail me. It would be great to have someone who can relay the dramatic moments, and I would love to keep the blog as up-to-date as possible. For instance, if someone saves 3 match points, serving at 4-5 in the third set, breaks the next game, and wins the match, that's something that cannot be captured by a box score. So please e-mail me if you're going to be there and have an interest in writing
As for results this week...
#6 Cruz def. #26 Bates 6-3
A huge bounce back match for Cruz as they prepare for Indoors, but they didn't answer all of the questions surrounding the team at the moment. What is up with Erich Koenig? And what is going on with the Nurenberg/Scandalis doubles team? Those are problems that need to be fixed before tomorrow.
#15 Redlands def. Washington & Lee 6-3
These two teams had a great battle at the top of the singles lineup, and this match is more proof that the Generals are pretty good this year. It also shows that the Bulldogs are back to their battling ways, and that they are extremely deep this year. I look forward to seeing more results from both of these teams.
#20 Cal Lu def. #24 Brandeis 7-2
I don't know whether to take this as a good sign or a bad sign for the Kingsmen. For one, they dominated a nationally ranked team, but they only did one match better than Occidental. Ballou lost his singles match, which needs to not happen if Cal Lu wants to try to repeat its 2010 success. The fact that Sousa is playing 6, however, bodes well for Cal Lu.
Showing posts with label Cruz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cruz. Show all posts
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Indoors Predictions
The Swanson Tennis Center welcomes Indoors back to its bubbly interior this weekend
#2 Emory vs. Gustavus Adolphus
It's good for the Gusties to play matches like this, but, honestly, they don't have any chance. Gustavus has a couple good players, but they are no match for Pottish/Goodwin, and Emory is by far the deeper team. Goodwin hasn't been playing so far this year, so he might be injured, but I think the Eagles will sweep the singles with or without him. Gustavus was able to win a point in each of their matches last time they hosted, and if they're going to get one in this one, they're going to have to do it in doubles. I don't see that happening, and I think Emory will win 9-0
#3 Wash U vs. #11 University of Chicago
Wash U beat the #19 ranked team in DII last week, so it looks like they will be as strong as ever this year. The box score indicates that they are incredibly deep, as they took 5 and 6 singles easily. I think we all know the story with Chicago by now. On paper, it seems like this match should be pretty even, and last year, it was. But history will not repeat itself at Indoors. The Maroons swept the Bears last year, but I think it will be the other way around this time. Wash U will come out energized and sweep the doubles. They will proceed to roll through singles. Chicago will pick up its lone win from Jan Stefanski, who always seems to win (and is probably playing way lower than he should be). Wash U, 8-1.
#6 Santa Cruz vs. #10 Trinity (TX)
The Slugs rebounded nicely today against Bates, and momentarily quenched some of the fatalistic rhetoric surrounding the program. Trinity has only played a handful of non-DIII matches so far, and it's hard to know where their strength is. I think this match will come down to the wire, as it did last year, but I think Cruz' experience with indoor tennis at Whitman will ultimately help them win this one. I think Cruz wins #3 doubles, Trinity wins #2 doubles, Cruz wins #1 singles, Trinity wins #3 singles, and Cruz takes 2 out of the 4-6 positions. Trinity probably has a slight edge at #1 doubles with the very experience Frey/DelaFuente , but the Rosner/Stanley doubles team is playing well. Santa Cruz will win if Koenig can find his form and beat Dela Fuente, which I think he will. Santa Cruz, 5-4.
#7 Kenyon vs. #8 Pomona-Pitzer
This is a very interesting matchup. The Lords are coming off a disappointing loss to NCW, so they should be hungry to win this one to prove that they are for real this year. P-P has never played at Indoors before, and I think it's probably a safe bet to say that their players won't be used to playing Indoor tennis at all. Also, when these two teams met last year, it was an absolute war. I like the Lords to come out on top in this one, 6-3. I think the Hens could take a 2-1 lead after doubles, but I think the Lords are probably stronger 4-6, and I think they will take two out of the top 3. I think Kenyon is better prepared to play this match inside, on a big stage, and that will ultimately be the difference. When they meet in the Stag-Hen, it will probably be a different story.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Weekly (Non-Indoors) Predictions
I thought I would just post a few predictions for the significant matches that will be taking place this week not in Minnesota. These aren't really well though out (because that has been working so well for me), and they're really just meant as a jumping off point for discussion, so please comment if you've got a good feel for any of these
#26 Bates @ #6 Cruz
I didn't really take much of a look at this match when I first saw it because Cruz losing to Bates on its home courts was pretty much unthinkable. But since they lost to the #29 team, I figured it's possible that they lose to the #26 team. The Slugs absolutely have to come out fired up for this one and improve on their doubles performance against Whitman. If they take at least a 2-1 lead, I think they cruise to a victory. On the other hand, Bates is stronger than their ranking indicates, and they should be especially strong in singles. If they manage to take a couple doubles matches, watch out. I can't pick against Cruz on their home courts, though, and match experience might be a factor this early in the season. I'll take the Slugs, 7-2.
Washington & Lee @ #15 Redlands
I think I said this before, but the Generals are stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates. They played and competed extremely well against Hopkins. If we're predicting that Hopkins will be a top 10 team this year, that should mean that W&L has a chance against Redlands, but the Generals were closest in doubles against the Blue Jays, and the Bulldogs have always been phenomenal at doubles. Redlands has also had some pretty impressive non-DIII results early this season, beating a couple top 15 NAIA teams. Redlands probably sweeps doubles and rolls in singles for a 8-1 victory.
#24 Brandeis @ #20 Cal Lu
On the ranking sheet, these two teams are only a couple rows apart, but Cal Lu is trending up and Brandeis is probably going the other way. The Judges also might have trouble adjusting to the California climate, and Cal Lu has improved depth and will be pumped up for their first home match. I will be looking at this box score intently to see exactly how much the Kingsmen have improved deep in their singles lineup. Until they prove that they can win there against ranked teams, I'm going to assume they will lose, but still pick them to repeat their 6-3 victory from last season.
Washington & Lee @ #5 CMS
I wonder if some of Settles' 4-stars that spend time on the bench will get in for this one. 9-0 Stags.
#26 Bates @ #15 Redlands
I think this match will be an absolute battle. As I mentioned, Bates is better than their ranking indicates, and by the time they get down to Redlands, they will have adjusted to the time zone and probably be pretty acclimated to the weather. Without Redlands' results from earlier this year, I would have had this as a possible upset. But since the Bulldogs have played well so far this season, I don't think I can pick against them on their home courts. I think Redlands will take 2 out of 3 dubs, and pull out a 5-4 victory in singles.
That's it for this post, I'll do another for Indoors, and a short one for the other weekend matches (because they matter too, just not as much for the national championship picture). I'm also going to try to take a look at singles and doubles rankings from the regions, but I think it might be a little early for that, and I might wait until after spring break. That's enough out of me. Hope everyone had a great President's Day!
#26 Bates @ #6 Cruz
I didn't really take much of a look at this match when I first saw it because Cruz losing to Bates on its home courts was pretty much unthinkable. But since they lost to the #29 team, I figured it's possible that they lose to the #26 team. The Slugs absolutely have to come out fired up for this one and improve on their doubles performance against Whitman. If they take at least a 2-1 lead, I think they cruise to a victory. On the other hand, Bates is stronger than their ranking indicates, and they should be especially strong in singles. If they manage to take a couple doubles matches, watch out. I can't pick against Cruz on their home courts, though, and match experience might be a factor this early in the season. I'll take the Slugs, 7-2.
Washington & Lee @ #15 Redlands
I think I said this before, but the Generals are stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates. They played and competed extremely well against Hopkins. If we're predicting that Hopkins will be a top 10 team this year, that should mean that W&L has a chance against Redlands, but the Generals were closest in doubles against the Blue Jays, and the Bulldogs have always been phenomenal at doubles. Redlands has also had some pretty impressive non-DIII results early this season, beating a couple top 15 NAIA teams. Redlands probably sweeps doubles and rolls in singles for a 8-1 victory.
#24 Brandeis @ #20 Cal Lu
On the ranking sheet, these two teams are only a couple rows apart, but Cal Lu is trending up and Brandeis is probably going the other way. The Judges also might have trouble adjusting to the California climate, and Cal Lu has improved depth and will be pumped up for their first home match. I will be looking at this box score intently to see exactly how much the Kingsmen have improved deep in their singles lineup. Until they prove that they can win there against ranked teams, I'm going to assume they will lose, but still pick them to repeat their 6-3 victory from last season.
Washington & Lee @ #5 CMS
I wonder if some of Settles' 4-stars that spend time on the bench will get in for this one. 9-0 Stags.
#26 Bates @ #15 Redlands
I think this match will be an absolute battle. As I mentioned, Bates is better than their ranking indicates, and by the time they get down to Redlands, they will have adjusted to the time zone and probably be pretty acclimated to the weather. Without Redlands' results from earlier this year, I would have had this as a possible upset. But since the Bulldogs have played well so far this season, I don't think I can pick against them on their home courts. I think Redlands will take 2 out of 3 dubs, and pull out a 5-4 victory in singles.
That's it for this post, I'll do another for Indoors, and a short one for the other weekend matches (because they matter too, just not as much for the national championship picture). I'm also going to try to take a look at singles and doubles rankings from the regions, but I think it might be a little early for that, and I might wait until after spring break. That's enough out of me. Hope everyone had a great President's Day!
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Whitman Stuns Cruz (and other weekend results)
Whitman Junior, Jeff Tolman
#29 Whitman 6, #6 Santa Cruz 3
I was going to try to hold off on posting about this weekend until it was over, but what happened last night needs writing about. Whitman beat Cruz 6-3, and the box score doesn't even make it look like an upset (I got this off Coach Northam's blog because it's not on the ITA website yet. you can also read about the match at http://www.whitmantennis.net):
Doubles
- Matt Tesmond/Conor Holton-Burke def Devin Nerenberg/Eli Scandalis 8-1
- Jeff Tolman/Andrew La Cava def Erik Rosner/Ian Stanley 8-6
- James Rivers/Sam Sadeghi def Sam Rodgers/Erich Koenig 9-7
Singles
- Andrew La Cava lost Devin Nerenberg 6-3, 6-4
- Jeff Tolman def Erich Koenig 6-3, 6-4
- Conor Holton-Burke def Andre Halabi 7-6, 6-0
- James Rivers lost Erik Rosner 4-6, 7-6, 6-4
- Sam Sadeghi lost Bryce Bettwy 5-7, 6-2, 10-7
- Adriel Borshansky def Sam Rodgers 6-2 6-4
Normally, with a colossal upset, you see a doubles sweep followed by two tight victories. This isn't that. From Northam's blog, it seems like this match was a lot closer to being 8-1 Whitman than 5-4 Cruz. Whitman had a match point at #4 singles, and you can see from the score line that they came close at #5.
There are two ways to look at this result. You can look at it and say, "Cruz lost its edge when it lost Hansen, and is now clearly overrated. They will probably finish the season outside the top 15 for the first time in forever." Or you can say, "Whitman must be much better than we thought they were. They're bound to be tough on their home court, so let's not overreact to the Cruz loss and just give Whitman some credit." In reality, it's probably a combo of both, but I want to cover both sides of it.
Cruz
It didn't seem like this would be a down year for Cruz. They were supposed to return 5 out of 6, and, even though they lost an all-time great in Pybas, they added Nurenberg, so that shouldn't hurt them too much. Unfortunately, they also lost Parker Larsen for some reason, and I think that loss really has them reeling. Cruz has always been one of the best doubles team, and without Larsen and Pybas, they lose their #1 team from last year. That's hard to recover from. I want to take it easy on Coach Parmelly, but I just don't think Hansen would have let his team go down 0-3 in a hostile environment. No matter how tough you are, you can't come back from that against a good team.
The upswing of all this is that Cruz desperately, desperately needs a win against Trinity at Indoors. If they can get it, they can write this loss off as a bit of a fluke like that loss to Cal Lu two years ago, and everything will be right in the world. If they lose, the mumbles and grumbles about Hansen will only get louder. This is a program with a lot of tradition, and I think D3 was overreacting a little bit last night when he said something along the lines of "this is the beginning of the end of the golden age of Cruz tennis," but they need to do better and fast.
Whitman
I think it's only appropriate for me to just eat my words about Whitman. I was wrong. They won, and they looked good doing it. Looking at their results from this year, they have clearly been playing great tennis this whole time. They beat Hawaii-Pacific (ranked #22 in DII) earlier this year, and they've given some DI teams a tough time. Still, just like with the Cruz situation, I don't think people should overreact. I don't think it's safe to consider Whitman a top 15 team yet. The last couple years, they've had some big wins against Pomona and Trinity (Tx), so in a way, we already knew that they were capable of playing like a top 10 team one out of six times. Each of the past two years, however, they've followed up their big win by laying a huge egg. Two years ago, they lost to Redlands by an uncompetitive 7-2 score after beating Pomona, and last year they lost to Texas-Tyler 6-3 after beating Trinity.
That said, Whitman has what might be the most important weekend in program history this weekend when they travel to Virginia to play Mary Washington, Rhodes, and Kalamazoo. These matches weren't on the D3 calendar, but they're on the Whitman website. Honestly, I think Whitman will probably drop at least one of these three matches, which will murder their chances at a top 15 ranking. They will be under a lot of pressure to back up their big win, and they will have to beat three good teams far, far away from home. Even if that happens, this is a great win for a program that's long on heart and short on talent. I would love to see what Whitman could do with some better recruits.
Other Weekend Results
#7 Kenyon 8, #19 Case Western 1
http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=228778&page=lr
I'm a little tired of typing at this point, so I'll keep this brief. I was wrong, again. I'm not off to a good start with this prediction thing. It looks like Case isn't actually ready for the big time, as they got killed by Kenyon, and there's no way you can look at this score line and say that it was close. Kenyon got two easy wins in doubles, and the third one looks solid, aswell. Then, Kenyon demolished Case at three of the singles positions. Burgin and Williams are off to great starts, and the Lords are getting contributions from their freshman already. I think this recruiting class could help these guys make the push into the final four. We'll know more after today's match.
#12 NCW 7, #19 Case Western 2
http://athletics.case.edu/sports/mten/2011-12/files/case-ncm.htm
This boxscore confirms that Case just isn't ready to move into the top 15, but I'll talk about NCW first. Why can't they play doubles!? I don't get it. Their singles lineup is so strong, and they can sweep anyone outside the top 15 off the singles court. Why can't they put together cohesive doubles teams. It doesn't make any sense. They need to turn their doubles around if they want to become the team they think that they already are. Right now, their doubles is preventing them from moving into the top 10. Other than that, their singles lineup looks great. They absolutely demolished Case, and I think the relatively easy wins at the bottom of the lineup are an especially good sign because I didn't know how deep they were (it's hard to tell how good their bench players are when they're all international)
With regard to Case. I was wrong. Oh boy, was I wrong. They didn't even compete with Kenyon and NCW in singles. It's clear that they can still play good doubles, but even a doubles sweep won't help if you can't win a singles match. Hopefully they can turn it around this week before they play Depauw. If they lose that one, their chances of making NCAAs will fall from slim to none.
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Weekend Preview: February 10-12
Weekend Preview #1
Now that I've reached the #20 mark for the season previews, I thought it might be nice to take a little break and talk about matches that are actually happening. Before I get into it though, I'd like to spare a few words for the first "match between ranked teams" that took place last weekend. Kenyon crushed Kalamazoo 8-1, but the match was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Three singles matches went to three sets, and the Hornets were close to taking 2 out of 3 doubles. Kalamazoo might have a chance to get themselves back in the top 30 this year, but unfortunately for them, they will most likely fall out of the national scene after this season, as their top 3 are all seniors, and they've had three incredibly mediocre recruiting classes
Friday
#19 Case Western @ #7 Kenyon
I just did the Case preview, so anyone who read that knows that I really like them, but there's really no reason for me to think that they would beat Kenyon, especially on Kenyon's courts. Kenyon only lost one player, and brought in a much stronger recruiting class than Case. Still, I think this match could be closer than a lot of people might expect, and I'm going to predict a 6-3 Kenyon victory.
Saturday
#12 NC Wesleyan vs. #19 Case Western
I'm assuming this match is going to be played on Kenyon's courts, since NCW is playing Kenyon on Sunday. This match actually has some upset potential. Case plays strong doubles, NWC plays weak doubles, and NWC struggle at Indoors to start the season last year. I expect Case to take #2 doubles, and you would have to pick NWC at #1 doubles, but if Case can take either 1 or 3 doubles, the Battling Bishops could be in for a tough loss. We obviously don't know where the strengths in these teams' singles lineups are this year, but if Case can find two wins in the 1-5 range, I think they are probably stronger at #6 indoors. I might look stupid for this in a couple days, but I'm actually going to take Case in a 5-4 upset over NC Wesleyan. You gotta pick some upsets sometimes, right?
Washington and Lee @ #7 Kenyon
There isn't much reason to think this will be a close match, but we will get a look at whether Washington and Lee's freshmen are ready to propel them back into the top 30. Kenyon 8-1.
#6 Santa Cruz @ #29 Whitman
Cruz returns to Whitman for its semi-annual pre-Indoors trip, and I would expect this match to go a lot like the last two. Whitman will probably ride a wave of emotion to a doubles victory, but Cruz will end up winning 8-1. I will be looking at the box score, however, to see if Cruz is ready to rebound from their tough Fall season and perform well at nationals. Whitman, on the other hand, is a program on the decline, and just can't seem to get the kind of recruits other schools are getting.
Sunday
#12 NC Wesleyan @ #7 Kenyon
This match should be the first real test for the Lords, and, more excitingly, it's the first match between top 15 teams this season. If NC Wesleyan is for real this year, they will have beaten Case and will get loud in Jasper Tennis Center. Kenyon, on the other hand, will be well-prepared after matches with Case, W&L, and Kalamazoo, and I doubt they will give up a match on their home courts. NCW hasn't played strong doubles for the past two years, but if they can win one, it will be #1 doubles. One doubles win would be enough to keep the Bishops in it because their singles are traditionally strong, but I think Kenyon is just too deep. I think they will win 2 and 3 doubles, as well as 3 out of the 3-6 singles positions, plus one of the remaining three positions (1 dubs, 1 and 2 singles) for a 6-3 victory.
#11 Chicago @ Kalamazoo
We saw that Kalamazoo is probably stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates, but that doesn't mean they're strong enough to beat the Maroons. Their home courts probably give them one victory, and a flaky performance from one of the Chicago singles players might give them another, but I'm predicting Chicago 8-1 or 7-2.
Kenyon's Jasper Tennis Center is the place to be for D3 tennis fans this weekend
Now that I've reached the #20 mark for the season previews, I thought it might be nice to take a little break and talk about matches that are actually happening. Before I get into it though, I'd like to spare a few words for the first "match between ranked teams" that took place last weekend. Kenyon crushed Kalamazoo 8-1, but the match was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Three singles matches went to three sets, and the Hornets were close to taking 2 out of 3 doubles. Kalamazoo might have a chance to get themselves back in the top 30 this year, but unfortunately for them, they will most likely fall out of the national scene after this season, as their top 3 are all seniors, and they've had three incredibly mediocre recruiting classes
Friday
#19 Case Western @ #7 Kenyon
I just did the Case preview, so anyone who read that knows that I really like them, but there's really no reason for me to think that they would beat Kenyon, especially on Kenyon's courts. Kenyon only lost one player, and brought in a much stronger recruiting class than Case. Still, I think this match could be closer than a lot of people might expect, and I'm going to predict a 6-3 Kenyon victory.
Saturday
#12 NC Wesleyan vs. #19 Case Western
I'm assuming this match is going to be played on Kenyon's courts, since NCW is playing Kenyon on Sunday. This match actually has some upset potential. Case plays strong doubles, NWC plays weak doubles, and NWC struggle at Indoors to start the season last year. I expect Case to take #2 doubles, and you would have to pick NWC at #1 doubles, but if Case can take either 1 or 3 doubles, the Battling Bishops could be in for a tough loss. We obviously don't know where the strengths in these teams' singles lineups are this year, but if Case can find two wins in the 1-5 range, I think they are probably stronger at #6 indoors. I might look stupid for this in a couple days, but I'm actually going to take Case in a 5-4 upset over NC Wesleyan. You gotta pick some upsets sometimes, right?
Washington and Lee @ #7 Kenyon
There isn't much reason to think this will be a close match, but we will get a look at whether Washington and Lee's freshmen are ready to propel them back into the top 30. Kenyon 8-1.
#6 Santa Cruz @ #29 Whitman
Cruz returns to Whitman for its semi-annual pre-Indoors trip, and I would expect this match to go a lot like the last two. Whitman will probably ride a wave of emotion to a doubles victory, but Cruz will end up winning 8-1. I will be looking at the box score, however, to see if Cruz is ready to rebound from their tough Fall season and perform well at nationals. Whitman, on the other hand, is a program on the decline, and just can't seem to get the kind of recruits other schools are getting.
Sunday
#12 NC Wesleyan @ #7 Kenyon
This match should be the first real test for the Lords, and, more excitingly, it's the first match between top 15 teams this season. If NC Wesleyan is for real this year, they will have beaten Case and will get loud in Jasper Tennis Center. Kenyon, on the other hand, will be well-prepared after matches with Case, W&L, and Kalamazoo, and I doubt they will give up a match on their home courts. NCW hasn't played strong doubles for the past two years, but if they can win one, it will be #1 doubles. One doubles win would be enough to keep the Bishops in it because their singles are traditionally strong, but I think Kenyon is just too deep. I think they will win 2 and 3 doubles, as well as 3 out of the 3-6 singles positions, plus one of the remaining three positions (1 dubs, 1 and 2 singles) for a 6-3 victory.
#11 Chicago @ Kalamazoo
We saw that Kalamazoo is probably stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates, but that doesn't mean they're strong enough to beat the Maroons. Their home courts probably give them one victory, and a flaky performance from one of the Chicago singles players might give them another, but I'm predicting Chicago 8-1 or 7-2.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Season Preview #6: Santa Cruz
#6 Santa Cruz
General Discussion
I'm trying to think if there have been any big, catalytic changes for the Santa Cruz tennis team between last year and this year, but for some reason I can't think of any... Oh wait, there's that whole thing where their legendary coach, Bob Hansen, left for Middlebury. That might have an effect on the program. In all seriousness, however, I don't think the effect of Hansen leaving will be felt by Santa Cruz this year. The team is still made up of players who were recruited by Hansen, and, for the most part, have experience in his system. Additionally, new coach Bryce Parmelly has a decade of experience as some part of the Santa Cruz team, and you might have heard of their two assistant coaches, Seeburger and Pybas. I think there is plenty of Hansen left behind on this team to make them very successful this year. They return 5 of their singles starters, two more doubles starters, and they brought in a talented transfer from UCSB in Devin Nurenberg, but it's difficult to recover from losing someone like Pybas. The results from the Fall also suggest that the Slugs will have a hard time keeping up with Claremont this year, but Santa Cruz practices harder than anybody, and it's hard guess how much they will have improved from a semester's worth of practicing. Not sure what else to say about the Slugs. They've always won by using their 2 and 3-stars to beat everyone else's 4 and 5-stars, and if they're going to have a good year this year, they're going to have to do it again.
Where They'll Win
Doubles has always been a strength for Santa Cruz, and I think that will continue this year. Two years ago, they won Indoors by sweeping doubles in every match, and finding two wins somewhere in the singles lineup. If they're going to beat any top 5 teams this year, that's the formula they're going to have to follow. (Though last year they beat CMS by taking the top 4 singles spots, I don't think that will happen again). In singles, while the Slugs certainly have good players at the top in Koenig, Nurenberg, and Larsen, I think they are definitely stronger at the bottom. They always have hungry, hard working players that overachieve filling out their roster, and they can definitely surprise some of the top teams at these spots.
Where They'll Lose
It looks like the Slugs are going to be weak at the top this year. It's not a good sign when your star transfer loses to your rival's third best freshman, nor is it a good sign when your best returning player loses to your rival's #6 singles player. Also, where is Larsen? He played in the Fall, but he's not on their roster right now. If they lose him, they will be even weaker at the #3 spot, and their doubles will suffer significantly. On paper, Santa Cruz doesn't really look like an elite team, but they've always been able to beat teams that look better than them on paper in the past. Hopefully, they can do it this year too, but they're going to have a hard time if they can't win at the top 3 positions. To have a good season, the Slugs desperately need either Nurenberg or Koenig to fill the massive hole left by Pybas' graduation.
Schedule Analysis
Cruz has an early season match against Whitman, which shouldn't be much of a problem, but it will give them more indoor experience heading into their first round match against Trinity at Indoors. The Trinity match will be massive in terms of establishing momentum for the whole season, and quelling lingering questions about the coaching switch. They could win that match and then lose to the next two and consider Indoors a success. After that, they have home matches against Kenyon and Claremont. I know they really want to beat Claremont, but I just don't know if that can happen this year. Nevertheless, the CMS match will likely determine who hosts the brutal California regional for nationals this year, which might be Santa Cruz' only chance to make it to the Elite Eight, even though I think home court advantage is overrated. After that, they road trip to So Cal to play Redlands and Williams. The match against Redlands is huge because all Redlands really needs is one big win to get into pool C, and Cruz might be ripe for an upset this year, but the Williams match isn't all that important in the big picture of nationals. The Slugs have plenty of good matches on their schedule, but in the grand scheme of things, Cruz will need to beat CMS at the end of the year to get back to the Elite Eight, and all of their other matches are just preparation for that one.
Prediction
Despite the intangibles, I think Cruz will have a down year this year. They will find a way to beat a weakened Trinity team, and maybe even end up finishing 3rd at Indoors. They might beat Kenyon, but I don't see them beating CMS or Williams, and they will eventually get knocked out in the Sweet Sixteen, though they will probably give Claremont a run for their money as they always do. The Slugs have always succeeded by developing their players, but if they're going to succeed in the new D3 environment, they're going to have to find a way to start getting some 4 or 5-star recruits.
General Discussion
I'm trying to think if there have been any big, catalytic changes for the Santa Cruz tennis team between last year and this year, but for some reason I can't think of any... Oh wait, there's that whole thing where their legendary coach, Bob Hansen, left for Middlebury. That might have an effect on the program. In all seriousness, however, I don't think the effect of Hansen leaving will be felt by Santa Cruz this year. The team is still made up of players who were recruited by Hansen, and, for the most part, have experience in his system. Additionally, new coach Bryce Parmelly has a decade of experience as some part of the Santa Cruz team, and you might have heard of their two assistant coaches, Seeburger and Pybas. I think there is plenty of Hansen left behind on this team to make them very successful this year. They return 5 of their singles starters, two more doubles starters, and they brought in a talented transfer from UCSB in Devin Nurenberg, but it's difficult to recover from losing someone like Pybas. The results from the Fall also suggest that the Slugs will have a hard time keeping up with Claremont this year, but Santa Cruz practices harder than anybody, and it's hard guess how much they will have improved from a semester's worth of practicing. Not sure what else to say about the Slugs. They've always won by using their 2 and 3-stars to beat everyone else's 4 and 5-stars, and if they're going to have a good year this year, they're going to have to do it again.
Where They'll Win
Doubles has always been a strength for Santa Cruz, and I think that will continue this year. Two years ago, they won Indoors by sweeping doubles in every match, and finding two wins somewhere in the singles lineup. If they're going to beat any top 5 teams this year, that's the formula they're going to have to follow. (Though last year they beat CMS by taking the top 4 singles spots, I don't think that will happen again). In singles, while the Slugs certainly have good players at the top in Koenig, Nurenberg, and Larsen, I think they are definitely stronger at the bottom. They always have hungry, hard working players that overachieve filling out their roster, and they can definitely surprise some of the top teams at these spots.
Where They'll Lose
It looks like the Slugs are going to be weak at the top this year. It's not a good sign when your star transfer loses to your rival's third best freshman, nor is it a good sign when your best returning player loses to your rival's #6 singles player. Also, where is Larsen? He played in the Fall, but he's not on their roster right now. If they lose him, they will be even weaker at the #3 spot, and their doubles will suffer significantly. On paper, Santa Cruz doesn't really look like an elite team, but they've always been able to beat teams that look better than them on paper in the past. Hopefully, they can do it this year too, but they're going to have a hard time if they can't win at the top 3 positions. To have a good season, the Slugs desperately need either Nurenberg or Koenig to fill the massive hole left by Pybas' graduation.
Schedule Analysis
Cruz has an early season match against Whitman, which shouldn't be much of a problem, but it will give them more indoor experience heading into their first round match against Trinity at Indoors. The Trinity match will be massive in terms of establishing momentum for the whole season, and quelling lingering questions about the coaching switch. They could win that match and then lose to the next two and consider Indoors a success. After that, they have home matches against Kenyon and Claremont. I know they really want to beat Claremont, but I just don't know if that can happen this year. Nevertheless, the CMS match will likely determine who hosts the brutal California regional for nationals this year, which might be Santa Cruz' only chance to make it to the Elite Eight, even though I think home court advantage is overrated. After that, they road trip to So Cal to play Redlands and Williams. The match against Redlands is huge because all Redlands really needs is one big win to get into pool C, and Cruz might be ripe for an upset this year, but the Williams match isn't all that important in the big picture of nationals. The Slugs have plenty of good matches on their schedule, but in the grand scheme of things, Cruz will need to beat CMS at the end of the year to get back to the Elite Eight, and all of their other matches are just preparation for that one.
Prediction
Despite the intangibles, I think Cruz will have a down year this year. They will find a way to beat a weakened Trinity team, and maybe even end up finishing 3rd at Indoors. They might beat Kenyon, but I don't see them beating CMS or Williams, and they will eventually get knocked out in the Sweet Sixteen, though they will probably give Claremont a run for their money as they always do. The Slugs have always succeeded by developing their players, but if they're going to succeed in the new D3 environment, they're going to have to find a way to start getting some 4 or 5-star recruits.
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