Wild Weekend

Whitewater junior, Andrew Bayliss

Another crazy set of matches in the last 24 hours, and I'm not really sure how to cover them, so I'll just go chronologically.

#19 Case Western def. #16 Depauw 6-3

I couldn't have been more wrong about Case Western, but at least this time, the original D3 was with me. They played strong doubles, just like we knew they were capable of playing, but this time, they found a way to win three singles matches. These guys must be pretty tough to take two three setters in their fourth match of the weekend. This win saves their season, but in no way does it mean they will get a Pool C bid. Still, with Chicago's loss, it seems like they're extremely vulnerable, so all they have to do to get the bid is probably beat CMU and Chicago, which is possible. It's still a long shot, but it looks about 100 times more likely than 24 hours ago.

For Depauw, this loss is absolutely devastating. They could sneak into Pool C with wins over W-W and CMU if CMU gets got and beats Case, but in my mind, that's much less likely than them just beating Kenyon for the conference championship. Kenyon is still better, but anyone can get hot for one match. We'll see what happens next weekend for the Tigers (though that match will probably fly under the radar with Indoors)

Kalamazoo def. #23 Rhodes 5-4

This is actually a really interesting result. For one, Kalamazoo finally got a tight win, but from the start times of the two matches in Fredericksburg this morning, I'm guessing they started the match with singles. That means the match was already clinched by the time they went into doubles. I really think this helped Kalamazoo because, if they had been down 0-3 going into singles, it's probably much less likely that they win five of six singles. Regardless, the Hornets finally got their win, and that bodes well for them the rest of the season. They have winnable matches against Whitewater and Trinity left, and they will probably need to win one of those to finish the year in the national rankings.

Rhodes, on the other hand, will probably fall out of the national rankings, and they have little hope of returning. Their only other matches against ranked teams are against Tyler (which will probably fall out of the national rankings themselves) and a possible match with Trinity in the conference chamionship (which is probably unwinnable). The Lynx are still a good team, but they really needed a win this weekend, and they didn't get it.

#29 Whitman def. #22 Mary Washington

I've been pretty harsh on Whitman so far, but when you're wrong, you're wrong. On paper, they really have no business beating Mary Washington, but they found a way to win again today. D3 mentioned that the weekend was a total team effort, and it's true that they won at least one match from every position (a statistical unlikelihood over the course of three matches). They will be probably be rewarded for their play this weekend with a top 15 ranking, and they are now the biggest Cruz fans on the face of the planet. All they have left on their schedule are matches against an underrated Whittier team and Trinity (CT). They have to avoid to letdown if they want to stay away from the brutal California regional for sure. Short on talent, long on heart.

For Mary Washington, this match hurts, but it's not the end of the world. The big concern is that they looked so much better than Whitman yesterday. They have to be asking themselves how it all went wrong, and I have no idea. I know the Eagles are hoping to return to prominence, but they don't have as much to worry about with Salisbury anymore, so they pretty much have a ticket to NCAAs. Plus, they have a ton of matches left against ranked teams, so they'll have plenty of chances to get their ranking up. Next up for them is a California swing against Cal Lu, Pomona, and Redlands. If they can get a win there, it would be huge.

as good as those matches were, the match of the night goes to....

#21 Whitewater def. #11 Chicago 5-4

I was extremely harsh on Whitewater in the season preview, and I think I have to learn to stop paying so much attention to tennisrecruiting.net. The teams that are ranked with poor recruits are clearly up their for a reason, and Whitewater also has a ton of heart. This box score has the classic look of an upset: a doubles sweep followed by two gritty singles wins. The Warhawks have always played good doubles. Hopefully they don't have to rely on it so much in the future. Up next for Whitewater is Kalamazoo, a match I now think they will win. As a side note, the schedule on Whitewater's calendar doesn't include Depauw, but I think they're playing. This match is now incredibly significant.

For Chicago, I don't even know what to say, really... here's a tweet from one of Whitewater's players:

@d3tennis at 6 singles..The guy swore at the uww player.. Walked off the court at 2 0. Proceeded to break a racket and swear at his coach.


This is the second time something like this has happened in the last two calendar years. I have a hard time imagining someone just walking out on their teammates like that, but it happened. They think they can beat anyone just because they are insanely talented, but tennis has a lot to do with desire, which I guess is something Chicago just doesn't have. I guess they enjoy their crappy reputation, but it's not helping them at all. We'll see what they do at Indoors, I guess. Somehow, I doubt they'll beat Wash U again.


Incidentally, I had a horrible weekend, prediction-wise... again. But I'm gonna keep trying. I'm new at this. The original D3 is all-wise and all-powerful, picking Whitman and W-W, but even he is having a hard time keeping up with all these upsets (Case and Zoo). Fun times to follow DIII tennis.


Formatting issues, I'll fix them later

Weekend Preview: February 18th-19th

Weekend Preview #2

Mary Washington's University Tennis Center, the site of last year's Indoors, hosts a slightly less exciting quad this weekend

Saturday


Washington & Lee @ #13 John's Hopkins

Washington & Lee beat Christopher Newport 5-4 over the weekend (in a match that went unnoticed by me), but that doesn't mean that they're ready to compete with the Blue Jays. Still, I'm interested in this match to see which of Hopkins' 39 freshmen will be playing in the starting lineup. I'll take Hop, 9-0, on their home courts, as they try to start off the season on the right foot, and strike some fear into the hearts of their opponents.

#19 Case Western @ #16 Depauw

This is the match of the weekend--at least in terms of NCAA tournament implications. Case had an extremely disappointing weekend, but it was pointed out to me that winning 2 out of 3 doubles against NCW looks a little better in light of the Bishops' victory over Kenyon. A loss would be devastating for Depauw, but it would essentially end Case's chances of making NCAAs. There's definitely a lot on the line for such an early season match. I'm tempted to take Case because they've already played some intense matches, but I think Depauw is slightly underrated, and, in the words of G.W. Bush, "Fool me once, shame on-- shame on you. Fool me-- you can't get fooled again." I'm gonna go with Depauw, 6-3.

Sunday


#11 Chicago vs. #21 Wisconsin-Whitewater

In my season preview of Whitewater, I said they had no chance to win this one. Then I saw the Maroon's box score against Kalamazoo this weekend, and I was reminded that they lost 2 of 3 doubles to Grinnell. I was hoping for Chicago's sake that their new coach would have instilled a little discipline into them, but I can see that they still like to mess around. If they're not serious, Whitewater could surprise them, but I still think they will do enough to get the W this time. I'll take Chicago, 6-3.

Mary Washington Quad


I wouldn't be surprised if none of these teams make it out of the weekend unbeaten, but I think that Mary Washington has the best chance. These four teams are probably more even than anyone would have anticipated when they scheduled it, and it reminds me of a best-of-five match between Nadal and Djokovic (not in level of tennis): even when one of them is clearly playing better than the other, it never ends in three sets. The losing player always has enough pride and grit to pull out at least one set, and it's so easy for the other to get complacent with the lead. That's how I see this weekend playing out.

In the Saturday morning matches, Mary Washington will come out excited and fresh for their first big match of the season and gut out a 6-3 win over Kalamazoo. Whoever wins the doubles will win the afternoon match between Whitman and Rhodes, but after Whitman's performance last weekend, I think they will come out energized and take advantage of Rhodes' lack of match toughness. Probably 5-4 either way in that one

In the afternoon matches, Mary Washington will take care of business with its biggest crowd of the weekend (I just don't see many college students showing up for those weekend morning matches). Rhodes has a shot at this one if they come out angry, but I don't think their lineup matches up well with MWU. Probably 7-2 again for MWU. Kalamazoo will be sick of losing close matches by the time the afternoon rolls around, and Whitman will either feel nervous about backing up their results or overly-confident. I think the Hornets win 2 of 3 doubles, and Whitman won't be able to recover in singles. 6-3 Kalamazoo.

In the Sunday matches, I just think MWU is better than Whitman, especially on their home courts. I also think Whitman will struggle their second day in the Eastern time zone. 6-3 MWU. In the final match, I think Rhodes will come out like an angry bear and beat 'Zoo. This prediction is more about heart than anything about these two teams' lineups. The Lynx will be determined not to leave Fredericksburg without a win.

Obviously, with teams this close is skill level, it could go any way, but I think it's likely that the end result will look something like:

MWU 3-0
Rhodes 1-2
Whitman 1-2
Kalamazoo 1-2

Whitman Stuns Cruz (and other weekend results)

Whitman Junior, Jeff Tolman

#29 Whitman 6, #6 Santa Cruz 3

I was going to try to hold off on posting about this weekend until it was over, but what happened last night needs writing about. Whitman beat Cruz 6-3, and the box score doesn't even make it look like an upset (I got this off Coach Northam's blog because it's not on the ITA website yet. you can also read about the match at http://www.whitmantennis.net):

Doubles

• Matt Tesmond/Conor Holton-Burke def Devin Nerenberg/Eli Scandalis 8-1
• Jeff Tolman/Andrew La Cava def Erik Rosner/Ian Stanley 8-6
• James Rivers/Sam Sadeghi def Sam Rodgers/Erich Koenig 9-7

Singles

• Andrew La Cava lost Devin Nerenberg 6-3, 6-4
• Jeff Tolman def Erich Koenig 6-3, 6-4
• Conor Holton-Burke def Andre Halabi 7-6, 6-0
• James Rivers lost Erik Rosner 4-6, 7-6, 6-4
• Sam Sadeghi lost Bryce Bettwy 5-7, 6-2, 10-7
• Adriel Borshansky def Sam Rodgers 6-2 6-4

Normally, with a colossal upset, you see a doubles sweep followed by two tight victories. This isn't that. From Northam's blog, it seems like this match was a lot closer to being 8-1 Whitman than 5-4 Cruz. Whitman had a match point at #4 singles, and you can see from the score line that they came close at #5.

There are two ways to look at this result. You can look at it and say, "Cruz lost its edge when it lost Hansen, and is now clearly overrated. They will probably finish the season outside the top 15 for the first time in forever." Or you can say, "Whitman must be much better than we thought they were. They're bound to be tough on their home court, so let's not overreact to the Cruz loss and just give Whitman some credit." In reality, it's probably a combo of both, but I want to cover both sides of it.

Cruz

It didn't seem like this would be a down year for Cruz. They were supposed to return 5 out of 6, and, even though they lost an all-time great in Pybas, they added Nurenberg, so that shouldn't hurt them too much. Unfortunately, they also lost Parker Larsen for some reason, and I think that loss really has them reeling. Cruz has always been one of the best doubles team, and without Larsen and Pybas, they lose their #1 team from last year. That's hard to recover from. I want to take it easy on Coach Parmelly, but I just don't think Hansen would have let his team go down 0-3 in a hostile environment. No matter how tough you are, you can't come back from that against a good team.

The upswing of all this is that Cruz desperately, desperately needs a win against Trinity at Indoors. If they can get it, they can write this loss off as a bit of a fluke like that loss to Cal Lu two years ago, and everything will be right in the world. If they lose, the mumbles and grumbles about Hansen will only get louder. This is a program with a lot of tradition, and I think D3 was overreacting a little bit last night when he said something along the lines of "this is the beginning of the end of the golden age of Cruz tennis," but they need to do better and fast.

Whitman

I think it's only appropriate for me to just eat my words about Whitman. I was wrong. They won, and they looked good doing it. Looking at their results from this year, they have clearly been playing great tennis this whole time. They beat Hawaii-Pacific (ranked #22 in DII) earlier this year, and they've given some DI teams a tough time. Still, just like with the Cruz situation, I don't think people should overreact. I don't think it's safe to consider Whitman a top 15 team yet. The last couple years, they've had some big wins against Pomona and Trinity (Tx), so in a way, we already knew that they were capable of playing like a top 10 team one out of six times. Each of the past two years, however, they've followed up their big win by laying a huge egg. Two years ago, they lost to Redlands by an uncompetitive 7-2 score after beating Pomona, and last year they lost to Texas-Tyler 6-3 after beating Trinity.

That said, Whitman has what might be the most important weekend in program history this weekend when they travel to Virginia to play Mary Washington, Rhodes, and Kalamazoo. These matches weren't on the D3 calendar, but they're on the Whitman website. Honestly, I think Whitman will probably drop at least one of these three matches, which will murder their chances at a top 15 ranking. They will be under a lot of pressure to back up their big win, and they will have to beat three good teams far, far away from home. Even if that happens, this is a great win for a program that's long on heart and short on talent. I would love to see what Whitman could do with some better recruits.

Other Weekend Results

#7 Kenyon 8, #19 Case Western 1

http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=228778&page=lr

I'm a little tired of typing at this point, so I'll keep this brief. I was wrong, again. I'm not off to a good start with this prediction thing. It looks like Case isn't actually ready for the big time, as they got killed by Kenyon, and there's no way you can look at this score line and say that it was close. Kenyon got two easy wins in doubles, and the third one looks solid, aswell. Then, Kenyon demolished Case at three of the singles positions. Burgin and Williams are off to great starts, and the Lords are getting contributions from their freshman already. I think this recruiting class could help these guys make the push into the final four. We'll know more after today's match.

#12 NCW 7, #19 Case Western 2

http://athletics.case.edu/sports/mten/2011-12/files/case-ncm.htm

This boxscore confirms that Case just isn't ready to move into the top 15, but I'll talk about NCW first. Why can't they play doubles!? I don't get it. Their singles lineup is so strong, and they can sweep anyone outside the top 15 off the singles court. Why can't they put together cohesive doubles teams. It doesn't make any sense. They need to turn their doubles around if they want to become the team they think that they already are. Right now, their doubles is preventing them from moving into the top 10. Other than that, their singles lineup looks great. They absolutely demolished Case, and I think the relatively easy wins at the bottom of the lineup are an especially good sign because I didn't know how deep they were (it's hard to tell how good their bench players are when they're all international)

With regard to Case. I was wrong. Oh boy, was I wrong. They didn't even compete with Kenyon and NCW in singles. It's clear that they can still play good doubles, but even a doubles sweep won't help if you can't win a singles match. Hopefully they can turn it around this week before they play Depauw. If they lose that one, their chances of making NCAAs will fall from slim to none.

Weekend Preview: February 10-12

Weekend Preview #1

Kenyon's Jasper Tennis Center is the place to be for D3 tennis fans this weekend

Now that I've reached the #20 mark for the season previews, I thought it might be nice to take a little break and talk about matches that are actually happening. Before I get into it though, I'd like to spare a few words for the first "match between ranked teams" that took place last weekend. Kenyon crushed Kalamazoo 8-1, but the match was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Three singles matches went to three sets, and the Hornets were close to taking 2 out of 3 doubles. Kalamazoo might have a chance to get themselves back in the top 30 this year, but unfortunately for them, they will most likely fall out of the national scene after this season, as their top 3 are all seniors, and they've had three incredibly mediocre recruiting classes

Friday


#19 Case Western @ #7 Kenyon


I just did the Case preview, so anyone who read that knows that I really like them, but there's really no reason for me to think that they would beat Kenyon, especially on Kenyon's courts. Kenyon only lost one player, and brought in a much stronger recruiting class than Case. Still, I think this match could be closer than a lot of people might expect, and I'm going to predict a 6-3 Kenyon victory.

Saturday


#12 NC Wesleyan vs. #19 Case Western


I'm assuming this match is going to be played on Kenyon's courts, since NCW is playing Kenyon on Sunday. This match actually has some upset potential. Case plays strong doubles, NWC plays weak doubles, and NWC struggle at Indoors to start the season last year. I expect Case to take #2 doubles, and you would have to pick NWC at #1 doubles, but if Case can take either 1 or 3 doubles, the Battling Bishops could be in for a tough loss. We obviously don't know where the strengths in these teams' singles lineups are this year, but if Case can find two wins in the 1-5 range, I think they are probably stronger at #6 indoors. I might look stupid for this in a couple days, but I'm actually going to take Case in a 5-4 upset over NC Wesleyan. You gotta pick some upsets sometimes, right?

Washington and Lee @ #7 Kenyon


There isn't much reason to think this will be a close match, but we will get a look at whether Washington and Lee's freshmen are ready to propel them back into the top 30. Kenyon 8-1.

#6 Santa Cruz @ #29 Whitman


Cruz returns to Whitman for its semi-annual pre-Indoors trip, and I would expect this match to go a lot like the last two. Whitman will probably ride a wave of emotion to a doubles victory, but Cruz will end up winning 8-1. I will be looking at the box score, however, to see if Cruz is ready to rebound from their tough Fall season and perform well at nationals. Whitman, on the other hand, is a program on the decline, and just can't seem to get the kind of recruits other schools are getting.

Sunday


#12 NC Wesleyan @ #7 Kenyon


This match should be the first real test for the Lords, and, more excitingly, it's the first match between top 15 teams this season. If NC Wesleyan is for real this year, they will have beaten Case and will get loud in Jasper Tennis Center. Kenyon, on the other hand, will be well-prepared after matches with Case, W&L, and Kalamazoo, and I doubt they will give up a match on their home courts. NCW hasn't played strong doubles for the past two years, but if they can win one, it will be #1 doubles. One doubles win would be enough to keep the Bishops in it because their singles are traditionally strong, but I think Kenyon is just too deep. I think they will win 2 and 3 doubles, as well as 3 out of the 3-6 singles positions, plus one of the remaining three positions (1 dubs, 1 and 2 singles) for a 6-3 victory.

#11 Chicago @ Kalamazoo


We saw that Kalamazoo is probably stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates, but that doesn't mean they're strong enough to beat the Maroons. Their home courts probably give them one victory, and a flaky performance from one of the Chicago singles players might give them another, but I'm predicting Chicago 8-1 or 7-2.

Season Preview #19: Case Western

#19 Case Western

Will Drougas (Fr.)

General Discussion


One of the most underrated stories from the 2011 season was the emergence of Case as a top 20 team. They went from giving some good teams a hard time in 2010 to actually beating three teams that are currently in the top 30 in 2011, including a more-impressive-than-it-looked-at-the-time 5-4 victory over Wisconsin-Whitewater. I think Case has the potential to continue its upward trend this year, as they bring in their very first 4-star recruit this year. The future definitely looks bright for the Spartans. They return all of their starters from last year, and their development has been great over the past three years. If their players have improved at the same rate as they have been, these guys could be a dark horse contender for a Pool C bid. To get one, however, they will have to leapfrog a number of teams, most notably Chicago and CMU.

Where They'll Win


Looking at the Spartans' result from last year, it looks like they either have a lot of players that are about the same in ability level, or they stacked their lineup. I'm inclined to believe the former, and with their two new recruits, that means they will be especially deep this year. One impressive aspect of their lineup, is that they managed to take #2 and #3 doubles pretty consistently against strong competition. A lot of second tier D3 teams have trouble fielding three strong doubles teams, but this tells me that the Case coach is particularly good at coaching doubles. If they can shore up the top end of their lineup, look for them to upset some teams this year, because it will be hard to come back against them if they take two out of three doubles.

Where They'll Lose


Even though they return all of their players from last year, the top of their lineup is probably their relative weakness. It just doesn't seem like they have the talent to compete with the best players from the teams that are consistently in the top 15. Accordingly, the onus for the Spartans' success this season might fall squarely on the shoulders of Sean Carr and William Drougas. Carr was solid against lesser competition, but the story of his season came down to him falling just short against the better #1's in the country like Stein and Nemerov. If he can make the jump this year, or if Drougas can step in and lead right away like Austin Chafetz did for Amherst a couple years ago, Case will definitely make the nation take notice. If not, they will probably lose a lot of close matches because of their inability to find wins at the top of their lineup

Schedule Analysis


If Case is ready to compete for a Pool C bid, we will know by the end of this weekend. They play Kenyon and NCW, and if they can beat either, they will make a huge jump in the rankings, and put Chicago on notice. Their next big match is against Depauw the following weekend, and that loser of that one might be out of NCAAs contention. Even if they lose that one, Case might be able to sneak into the tournament with a victory over Chicago, but that's a lot to ask for. Along the way they will have to avoid an upset, especially in the UAA tournament, where they almost lost to NYU last year, and the could come up against a hungry CMU or even have a rematch with Chicago.

Prediction


In case you couldn't tell from the whole rhetoric of this preview, I definitely think Case is a program on the rise. I love it when teams can get a lot out of lower-ranked recruits, and it's exciting to think what they might be able to do now that they're getting a few players with more stars next to their names. Additionally, the Spartans' lineup is loaded with juniors and seniors, and they will definitely be extremely hungry. However, new to the scene as they are, they might not be able to handle the pressure that comes with competing for a Pool C bid. To get a Pool C bid, you literally cannot afford to lose to a team ranked below you,-- something Case came close to doing several times last year. I think this year will mark more progress for the Spartans, but not enough to get them into the tournament.