Indoors Predictions

The Swanson Tennis Center welcomes Indoors back to its bubbly interior this weekend

#2 Emory vs. Gustavus Adolphus


It's good for the Gusties to play matches like this, but, honestly, they don't have any chance. Gustavus has a couple good players, but they are no match for Pottish/Goodwin, and Emory is by far the deeper team. Goodwin hasn't been playing so far this year, so he might be injured, but I think the Eagles will sweep the singles with or without him. Gustavus was able to win a point in each of their matches last time they hosted, and if they're going to get one in this one, they're going to have to do it in doubles. I don't see that happening, and I think Emory will win 9-0

#3 Wash U vs. #11 University of Chicago


Wash U beat the #19 ranked team in DII last week, so it looks like they will be as strong as ever this year. The box score indicates that they are incredibly deep, as they took 5 and 6 singles easily. I think we all know the story with Chicago by now. On paper, it seems like this match should be pretty even, and last year, it was. But history will not repeat itself at Indoors. The Maroons swept the Bears last year, but I think it will be the other way around this time. Wash U will come out energized and sweep the doubles. They will proceed to roll through singles. Chicago will pick up its lone win from Jan Stefanski, who always seems to win (and is probably playing way lower than he should be). Wash U, 8-1.

#6 Santa Cruz vs. #10 Trinity (TX)


The Slugs rebounded nicely today against Bates, and momentarily quenched some of the fatalistic rhetoric surrounding the program. Trinity has only played a handful of non-DIII matches so far, and it's hard to know where their strength is. I think this match will come down to the wire, as it did last year, but I think Cruz' experience with indoor tennis at Whitman will ultimately help them win this one. I think Cruz wins #3 doubles, Trinity wins #2 doubles, Cruz wins #1 singles, Trinity wins #3 singles, and Cruz takes 2 out of the 4-6 positions. Trinity probably has a slight edge at #1 doubles with the very experience Frey/DelaFuente , but the Rosner/Stanley doubles team is playing well. Santa Cruz will win if Koenig can find his form and beat Dela Fuente, which I think he will. Santa Cruz, 5-4.

#7 Kenyon vs. #8 Pomona-Pitzer


This is a very interesting matchup. The Lords are coming off a disappointing loss to NCW, so they should be hungry to win this one to prove that they are for real this year. P-P has never played at Indoors before, and I think it's probably a safe bet to say that their players won't be used to playing Indoor tennis at all. Also, when these two teams met last year, it was an absolute war. I like the Lords to come out on top in this one, 6-3. I think the Hens could take a 2-1 lead after doubles, but I think the Lords are probably stronger 4-6, and I think they will take two out of the top 3. I think Kenyon is better prepared to play this match inside, on a big stage, and that will ultimately be the difference. When they meet in the Stag-Hen, it will probably be a different story.

Wild Weekend

Whitewater junior, Andrew Bayliss

Another crazy set of matches in the last 24 hours, and I'm not really sure how to cover them, so I'll just go chronologically.

#19 Case Western def. #16 Depauw 6-3

I couldn't have been more wrong about Case Western, but at least this time, the original D3 was with me. They played strong doubles, just like we knew they were capable of playing, but this time, they found a way to win three singles matches. These guys must be pretty tough to take two three setters in their fourth match of the weekend. This win saves their season, but in no way does it mean they will get a Pool C bid. Still, with Chicago's loss, it seems like they're extremely vulnerable, so all they have to do to get the bid is probably beat CMU and Chicago, which is possible. It's still a long shot, but it looks about 100 times more likely than 24 hours ago.

For Depauw, this loss is absolutely devastating. They could sneak into Pool C with wins over W-W and CMU if CMU gets got and beats Case, but in my mind, that's much less likely than them just beating Kenyon for the conference championship. Kenyon is still better, but anyone can get hot for one match. We'll see what happens next weekend for the Tigers (though that match will probably fly under the radar with Indoors)

Kalamazoo def. #23 Rhodes 5-4

This is actually a really interesting result. For one, Kalamazoo finally got a tight win, but from the start times of the two matches in Fredericksburg this morning, I'm guessing they started the match with singles. That means the match was already clinched by the time they went into doubles. I really think this helped Kalamazoo because, if they had been down 0-3 going into singles, it's probably much less likely that they win five of six singles. Regardless, the Hornets finally got their win, and that bodes well for them the rest of the season. They have winnable matches against Whitewater and Trinity left, and they will probably need to win one of those to finish the year in the national rankings.

Rhodes, on the other hand, will probably fall out of the national rankings, and they have little hope of returning. Their only other matches against ranked teams are against Tyler (which will probably fall out of the national rankings themselves) and a possible match with Trinity in the conference chamionship (which is probably unwinnable). The Lynx are still a good team, but they really needed a win this weekend, and they didn't get it.

#29 Whitman def. #22 Mary Washington

I've been pretty harsh on Whitman so far, but when you're wrong, you're wrong. On paper, they really have no business beating Mary Washington, but they found a way to win again today. D3 mentioned that the weekend was a total team effort, and it's true that they won at least one match from every position (a statistical unlikelihood over the course of three matches). They will be probably be rewarded for their play this weekend with a top 15 ranking, and they are now the biggest Cruz fans on the face of the planet. All they have left on their schedule are matches against an underrated Whittier team and Trinity (CT). They have to avoid to letdown if they want to stay away from the brutal California regional for sure. Short on talent, long on heart.

For Mary Washington, this match hurts, but it's not the end of the world. The big concern is that they looked so much better than Whitman yesterday. They have to be asking themselves how it all went wrong, and I have no idea. I know the Eagles are hoping to return to prominence, but they don't have as much to worry about with Salisbury anymore, so they pretty much have a ticket to NCAAs. Plus, they have a ton of matches left against ranked teams, so they'll have plenty of chances to get their ranking up. Next up for them is a California swing against Cal Lu, Pomona, and Redlands. If they can get a win there, it would be huge.

as good as those matches were, the match of the night goes to....

#21 Whitewater def. #11 Chicago 5-4

I was extremely harsh on Whitewater in the season preview, and I think I have to learn to stop paying so much attention to tennisrecruiting.net. The teams that are ranked with poor recruits are clearly up their for a reason, and Whitewater also has a ton of heart. This box score has the classic look of an upset: a doubles sweep followed by two gritty singles wins. The Warhawks have always played good doubles. Hopefully they don't have to rely on it so much in the future. Up next for Whitewater is Kalamazoo, a match I now think they will win. As a side note, the schedule on Whitewater's calendar doesn't include Depauw, but I think they're playing. This match is now incredibly significant.

For Chicago, I don't even know what to say, really... here's a tweet from one of Whitewater's players:

@d3tennis at 6 singles..The guy swore at the uww player.. Walked off the court at 2 0. Proceeded to break a racket and swear at his coach.


This is the second time something like this has happened in the last two calendar years. I have a hard time imagining someone just walking out on their teammates like that, but it happened. They think they can beat anyone just because they are insanely talented, but tennis has a lot to do with desire, which I guess is something Chicago just doesn't have. I guess they enjoy their crappy reputation, but it's not helping them at all. We'll see what they do at Indoors, I guess. Somehow, I doubt they'll beat Wash U again.


Incidentally, I had a horrible weekend, prediction-wise... again. But I'm gonna keep trying. I'm new at this. The original D3 is all-wise and all-powerful, picking Whitman and W-W, but even he is having a hard time keeping up with all these upsets (Case and Zoo). Fun times to follow DIII tennis.


Formatting issues, I'll fix them later

Weekend Preview: February 18th-19th

Weekend Preview #2

Mary Washington's University Tennis Center, the site of last year's Indoors, hosts a slightly less exciting quad this weekend

Saturday


Washington & Lee @ #13 John's Hopkins

Washington & Lee beat Christopher Newport 5-4 over the weekend (in a match that went unnoticed by me), but that doesn't mean that they're ready to compete with the Blue Jays. Still, I'm interested in this match to see which of Hopkins' 39 freshmen will be playing in the starting lineup. I'll take Hop, 9-0, on their home courts, as they try to start off the season on the right foot, and strike some fear into the hearts of their opponents.

#19 Case Western @ #16 Depauw

This is the match of the weekend--at least in terms of NCAA tournament implications. Case had an extremely disappointing weekend, but it was pointed out to me that winning 2 out of 3 doubles against NCW looks a little better in light of the Bishops' victory over Kenyon. A loss would be devastating for Depauw, but it would essentially end Case's chances of making NCAAs. There's definitely a lot on the line for such an early season match. I'm tempted to take Case because they've already played some intense matches, but I think Depauw is slightly underrated, and, in the words of G.W. Bush, "Fool me once, shame on-- shame on you. Fool me-- you can't get fooled again." I'm gonna go with Depauw, 6-3.

Sunday


#11 Chicago vs. #21 Wisconsin-Whitewater

In my season preview of Whitewater, I said they had no chance to win this one. Then I saw the Maroon's box score against Kalamazoo this weekend, and I was reminded that they lost 2 of 3 doubles to Grinnell. I was hoping for Chicago's sake that their new coach would have instilled a little discipline into them, but I can see that they still like to mess around. If they're not serious, Whitewater could surprise them, but I still think they will do enough to get the W this time. I'll take Chicago, 6-3.

Mary Washington Quad


I wouldn't be surprised if none of these teams make it out of the weekend unbeaten, but I think that Mary Washington has the best chance. These four teams are probably more even than anyone would have anticipated when they scheduled it, and it reminds me of a best-of-five match between Nadal and Djokovic (not in level of tennis): even when one of them is clearly playing better than the other, it never ends in three sets. The losing player always has enough pride and grit to pull out at least one set, and it's so easy for the other to get complacent with the lead. That's how I see this weekend playing out.

In the Saturday morning matches, Mary Washington will come out excited and fresh for their first big match of the season and gut out a 6-3 win over Kalamazoo. Whoever wins the doubles will win the afternoon match between Whitman and Rhodes, but after Whitman's performance last weekend, I think they will come out energized and take advantage of Rhodes' lack of match toughness. Probably 5-4 either way in that one

In the afternoon matches, Mary Washington will take care of business with its biggest crowd of the weekend (I just don't see many college students showing up for those weekend morning matches). Rhodes has a shot at this one if they come out angry, but I don't think their lineup matches up well with MWU. Probably 7-2 again for MWU. Kalamazoo will be sick of losing close matches by the time the afternoon rolls around, and Whitman will either feel nervous about backing up their results or overly-confident. I think the Hornets win 2 of 3 doubles, and Whitman won't be able to recover in singles. 6-3 Kalamazoo.

In the Sunday matches, I just think MWU is better than Whitman, especially on their home courts. I also think Whitman will struggle their second day in the Eastern time zone. 6-3 MWU. In the final match, I think Rhodes will come out like an angry bear and beat 'Zoo. This prediction is more about heart than anything about these two teams' lineups. The Lynx will be determined not to leave Fredericksburg without a win.

Obviously, with teams this close is skill level, it could go any way, but I think it's likely that the end result will look something like:

MWU 3-0
Rhodes 1-2
Whitman 1-2
Kalamazoo 1-2

Another Big Upset

NCW Senior, Alexey Rumyantsev

http://athletics.kenyon.edu/x42122.xml

#12 NC-Wesleyan 5, #7 Kenyon 4


So much for that talk about Kenyon being a possible Final Four team. And so much for the talk about NC-Wesleyan sucking at doubles. I. Am. Always. Wrong.

Anyways, NC-Wesleyan looked good in doubles today. It seems like Kenyon was lucky to get the one point that they got. In singles, NCW got a fairly routine victory at #3 singles, but the Kenyon freshmen stepped up big. That must have left the match at 3-3, with three matches left. NCW showed once again that they are exceptionally deep, taking five and six. I think we can take away from this match that just because a team looks dominant one weekend, doesn't necessarily mean they always play that way.

Kenyon


I can't wait to see how the Lords respond to this loss at Indoors. It's gotta be heartbreaking to lose a match like that on your home courts, and I know that Kenyon is really confident this year. Will a loss like this shake their confidence? Or will they come out like a wounded bear? Burgin is playing like a savvy veteran, and could actually be one of the best players in the country. Their freshman are also playing like savvy veterans, which is a nice little bonus for the Lords. But so far, the bottom of their lineup is slightly suspect, and they need to shore that up before Indoors, or they could see their ranking start to slip in a hurry. We really have no idea how Depauw is going to be this year, but they have to come back with a vengeance so that everyone knows the conference championship is not in question.

NC-Wesleyan


This is an awesome win for the Battling Bishops, and they can expect to be in the top 10 when the rankings come out in March. They will have to back it up with a victory over JHU if they want to keep that ranking. I think it's pretty apparent that NCW's success against higher-ranked teams will be heavily dependent on their doubles play. Their singles lineup is so good that, if they can take two doubles matches, they can beat anyone in the country (except for Amherst and Claremont). Anyone know how a higher ranking could affect the shape of NCAA's this year?

In other news...

http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=228997&page=lr

#11 Chicago 5, Kalamazoo 4


What!? At least I picked the winner right this time. Jesus. And that score is with a doubles sweep from the Maroons. What are they doing!? I really have no words for this team. They might actually lose to Wisconsin-Whitewater. I never would have thought that was possible. They mystify me. For all I know, they could turn around and win two matches at Indoors. I'm going to reserve judgement on them.

Kalamazoo

The Hornets are definitely strong this year, and they are my new pick to beat Whitman next weekend. This group of seniors seems to be hungry to get their team back into the national rankings, and they have plenty of opportunities: Whitman, Rhodes, and Mary Washington next weekend; Whitewater the following weekend; and Trinity (CT) over Spring Break. I think they can get one. But again, we'll reassess after next weekend. I just had a total nostalgia moment. It's hard to believe the Hornets were ranked #17 and coming off a huge victory over Chicago about this time two years ago. How things have changed...

Weekend Preview: February 10-12

Weekend Preview #1

Kenyon's Jasper Tennis Center is the place to be for D3 tennis fans this weekend

Now that I've reached the #20 mark for the season previews, I thought it might be nice to take a little break and talk about matches that are actually happening. Before I get into it though, I'd like to spare a few words for the first "match between ranked teams" that took place last weekend. Kenyon crushed Kalamazoo 8-1, but the match was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Three singles matches went to three sets, and the Hornets were close to taking 2 out of 3 doubles. Kalamazoo might have a chance to get themselves back in the top 30 this year, but unfortunately for them, they will most likely fall out of the national scene after this season, as their top 3 are all seniors, and they've had three incredibly mediocre recruiting classes

Friday


#19 Case Western @ #7 Kenyon


I just did the Case preview, so anyone who read that knows that I really like them, but there's really no reason for me to think that they would beat Kenyon, especially on Kenyon's courts. Kenyon only lost one player, and brought in a much stronger recruiting class than Case. Still, I think this match could be closer than a lot of people might expect, and I'm going to predict a 6-3 Kenyon victory.

Saturday


#12 NC Wesleyan vs. #19 Case Western


I'm assuming this match is going to be played on Kenyon's courts, since NCW is playing Kenyon on Sunday. This match actually has some upset potential. Case plays strong doubles, NWC plays weak doubles, and NWC struggle at Indoors to start the season last year. I expect Case to take #2 doubles, and you would have to pick NWC at #1 doubles, but if Case can take either 1 or 3 doubles, the Battling Bishops could be in for a tough loss. We obviously don't know where the strengths in these teams' singles lineups are this year, but if Case can find two wins in the 1-5 range, I think they are probably stronger at #6 indoors. I might look stupid for this in a couple days, but I'm actually going to take Case in a 5-4 upset over NC Wesleyan. You gotta pick some upsets sometimes, right?

Washington and Lee @ #7 Kenyon


There isn't much reason to think this will be a close match, but we will get a look at whether Washington and Lee's freshmen are ready to propel them back into the top 30. Kenyon 8-1.

#6 Santa Cruz @ #29 Whitman


Cruz returns to Whitman for its semi-annual pre-Indoors trip, and I would expect this match to go a lot like the last two. Whitman will probably ride a wave of emotion to a doubles victory, but Cruz will end up winning 8-1. I will be looking at the box score, however, to see if Cruz is ready to rebound from their tough Fall season and perform well at nationals. Whitman, on the other hand, is a program on the decline, and just can't seem to get the kind of recruits other schools are getting.

Sunday


#12 NC Wesleyan @ #7 Kenyon


This match should be the first real test for the Lords, and, more excitingly, it's the first match between top 15 teams this season. If NC Wesleyan is for real this year, they will have beaten Case and will get loud in Jasper Tennis Center. Kenyon, on the other hand, will be well-prepared after matches with Case, W&L, and Kalamazoo, and I doubt they will give up a match on their home courts. NCW hasn't played strong doubles for the past two years, but if they can win one, it will be #1 doubles. One doubles win would be enough to keep the Bishops in it because their singles are traditionally strong, but I think Kenyon is just too deep. I think they will win 2 and 3 doubles, as well as 3 out of the 3-6 singles positions, plus one of the remaining three positions (1 dubs, 1 and 2 singles) for a 6-3 victory.

#11 Chicago @ Kalamazoo


We saw that Kalamazoo is probably stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates, but that doesn't mean they're strong enough to beat the Maroons. Their home courts probably give them one victory, and a flaky performance from one of the Chicago singles players might give them another, but I'm predicting Chicago 8-1 or 7-2.

Season Preview #11: Chicago

#11 Chicago

General Discussion


2011 was somewhat of a break out year for the Maroons. They finally shed their "talented but unsuccessful" label, beat Wash U, and made the NCAA tournament via Pool C, which is a hell of an accomplishment. Personally, however, I feel like that "success" is somewhat overstated. A team with six 4-stars on their roster, along with a couple 3-stars and a few talented international players should not be ranked outside of the top ten. Chicago has always been notorious for behaving like thugs on the court, and, even though they like to think of themselves as the most intimidating team in D3, I don't think their behavior is helping them. One of their players actually walked out on a match against Brandeis two years ago, which might have cost them a trip to the NCAAs. Objectively, it's really sad that a player would give up on his team like that, but for the teams in D3 that hate Chicago, that was hilarious. The Maroons have an interim head coach this year, and it's possible that Coach Bertrand will put an end to those antics. If she does, maybe the Maroons will start finally living up to their potential. I don't know if the attitude is actually to blame for the fact that Chicago continues to underperform, but, while they may not be the most intimidating team to play against, they are definitely one of the most mystifying story lines in D3.

Unlike the other teams I've been previewing, the Maroons have actually played a competitive match this Spring already. Even though it wasn't against a fellow D3 team, their match against Illinois (Chicago) should indicate what their lineup will look like this year. They lost their #1 player from last year in Will Zhang, but that might actually not hurt them that much. While Zhang was capable of beating anyone in D3, he also had a reputation for cramping and could lose to anyone also. They return the rest of their lineup, and it looks like Brinker might be taking up the mantle at #1 singles.

Where They'll Win


That was a long intro, so I'll keep this brief. The Maroons were much stronger at the bottom of their lineup last year than they were at the top. In fact, Stefanski was damn near undefeated playing #5 and #6. I don't want to call that a stack. Instead, I would say that's just what happens when you have enough 4-stars on your roster to slate a couple of them in the bottom positions. Though Chicago might get weaker at the top this year due to Zhang's graduation, they should remain just as deep, as they've added a 4-star freshman, who started at #5 in the first match. Not even the top teams in the country should bank on beating the Maroons in the 4-6 singles spots because they have the depth to match anyone.

Where They'll Lose


Maybe I'm putting too much weight on the CMU match from last year, but it seems like the Maroons were pretty vulnerable at the top positions last year. Sure, Zhang and Szabo were capable of picking off some of the top ranked players, but they lost most matches against the bigger names. Without Zhang, that could be an even bigger problem for Chicago. Hopefully for the Maroons, the talented sophomores will have benefitted from their first year of college tennis, and are ready to make a leap. If not, they will still be very beatable at the top.

Schedule Analysis


Chicago has pretty much the same schedule as they had last year, with the huge addition of Indoors. They have to avoid the early season upset this year against either Kalamazoo or Wisconsin-Whitewater. (Neither team should be anywhere close to the Maroons, but Chicago almost lost to Denison last year, so anything is possible). Such a loss would be devastating to their Pool C chances. Chicago's first round opponent at Indoors should be very familiar. It's Wash U. I would predict that Wash U would win that one, barring a doubles sweep, which would leave Chicago in their biggest match of the year against the loser of Trinity/Cruz. If Chicago can win that match, they can basically assure themselves of a Pool C bid, as long as they can "hold serve" the rest of the season, so to speak. If they can't get that one, they will have to hope for an upset in the UAA championship, or a situation where they pick up some indirect wins by beating CMU.

Prediction


You'll notice that I didn't mention doubles in the strengths/weaknesses section. That's because they were so inconsistent last year that it's impossible to designate doubles as either for the Maroons. Nonetheless, their success this year will be largely dependent on their ability to put together one great doubles match. Their season-defining victory against Wash U last year happened largely because of a doubles sweep, but they also almost lost their Pool C bid when they were swept by Depauw and beaten by Denison. It will take more consistent doubles play for the Maroons to keep their ranking and their Pool C bid, because they probably won't be able to recover from a doubles sweep again this year. As for the prediction, I think either CMU, Redlands, or Depauw is going to leapfrog Chicago and steal their Pool C bid, leaving Chicago back where they were two years ago: in the top 20, but not in the tournament.