Wild Weekend

Whitewater junior, Andrew Bayliss

Another crazy set of matches in the last 24 hours, and I'm not really sure how to cover them, so I'll just go chronologically.

#19 Case Western def. #16 Depauw 6-3

I couldn't have been more wrong about Case Western, but at least this time, the original D3 was with me. They played strong doubles, just like we knew they were capable of playing, but this time, they found a way to win three singles matches. These guys must be pretty tough to take two three setters in their fourth match of the weekend. This win saves their season, but in no way does it mean they will get a Pool C bid. Still, with Chicago's loss, it seems like they're extremely vulnerable, so all they have to do to get the bid is probably beat CMU and Chicago, which is possible. It's still a long shot, but it looks about 100 times more likely than 24 hours ago.

For Depauw, this loss is absolutely devastating. They could sneak into Pool C with wins over W-W and CMU if CMU gets got and beats Case, but in my mind, that's much less likely than them just beating Kenyon for the conference championship. Kenyon is still better, but anyone can get hot for one match. We'll see what happens next weekend for the Tigers (though that match will probably fly under the radar with Indoors)

Kalamazoo def. #23 Rhodes 5-4

This is actually a really interesting result. For one, Kalamazoo finally got a tight win, but from the start times of the two matches in Fredericksburg this morning, I'm guessing they started the match with singles. That means the match was already clinched by the time they went into doubles. I really think this helped Kalamazoo because, if they had been down 0-3 going into singles, it's probably much less likely that they win five of six singles. Regardless, the Hornets finally got their win, and that bodes well for them the rest of the season. They have winnable matches against Whitewater and Trinity left, and they will probably need to win one of those to finish the year in the national rankings.

Rhodes, on the other hand, will probably fall out of the national rankings, and they have little hope of returning. Their only other matches against ranked teams are against Tyler (which will probably fall out of the national rankings themselves) and a possible match with Trinity in the conference chamionship (which is probably unwinnable). The Lynx are still a good team, but they really needed a win this weekend, and they didn't get it.

#29 Whitman def. #22 Mary Washington

I've been pretty harsh on Whitman so far, but when you're wrong, you're wrong. On paper, they really have no business beating Mary Washington, but they found a way to win again today. D3 mentioned that the weekend was a total team effort, and it's true that they won at least one match from every position (a statistical unlikelihood over the course of three matches). They will be probably be rewarded for their play this weekend with a top 15 ranking, and they are now the biggest Cruz fans on the face of the planet. All they have left on their schedule are matches against an underrated Whittier team and Trinity (CT). They have to avoid to letdown if they want to stay away from the brutal California regional for sure. Short on talent, long on heart.

For Mary Washington, this match hurts, but it's not the end of the world. The big concern is that they looked so much better than Whitman yesterday. They have to be asking themselves how it all went wrong, and I have no idea. I know the Eagles are hoping to return to prominence, but they don't have as much to worry about with Salisbury anymore, so they pretty much have a ticket to NCAAs. Plus, they have a ton of matches left against ranked teams, so they'll have plenty of chances to get their ranking up. Next up for them is a California swing against Cal Lu, Pomona, and Redlands. If they can get a win there, it would be huge.

as good as those matches were, the match of the night goes to....

#21 Whitewater def. #11 Chicago 5-4

I was extremely harsh on Whitewater in the season preview, and I think I have to learn to stop paying so much attention to tennisrecruiting.net. The teams that are ranked with poor recruits are clearly up their for a reason, and Whitewater also has a ton of heart. This box score has the classic look of an upset: a doubles sweep followed by two gritty singles wins. The Warhawks have always played good doubles. Hopefully they don't have to rely on it so much in the future. Up next for Whitewater is Kalamazoo, a match I now think they will win. As a side note, the schedule on Whitewater's calendar doesn't include Depauw, but I think they're playing. This match is now incredibly significant.

For Chicago, I don't even know what to say, really... here's a tweet from one of Whitewater's players:

@d3tennis at 6 singles..The guy swore at the uww player.. Walked off the court at 2 0. Proceeded to break a racket and swear at his coach.


This is the second time something like this has happened in the last two calendar years. I have a hard time imagining someone just walking out on their teammates like that, but it happened. They think they can beat anyone just because they are insanely talented, but tennis has a lot to do with desire, which I guess is something Chicago just doesn't have. I guess they enjoy their crappy reputation, but it's not helping them at all. We'll see what they do at Indoors, I guess. Somehow, I doubt they'll beat Wash U again.


Incidentally, I had a horrible weekend, prediction-wise... again. But I'm gonna keep trying. I'm new at this. The original D3 is all-wise and all-powerful, picking Whitman and W-W, but even he is having a hard time keeping up with all these upsets (Case and Zoo). Fun times to follow DIII tennis.


Formatting issues, I'll fix them later

Saturday Recap

Tyler Carey (Fr.)

Sorry, but this post will not include the Case/Depauw match because it's not over yet (at least, the scores aren't available), and I won't be able to post later (Saturday night!). In all honesty, that match is probably over by now. Case lost to Ferris State, and that just doesn't sounds like a team that's about to beat Depauw to me.

Mary Washington Invitational


The four matches in the Mary Washington Invitational this morning went pretty much exactly how the original D3 predicted, though I'm going to take solace in getting 3 out of 4 right. Whitman beat Rhodes with a really gutsy singles performance, especially from Jeff Tolman. With the match tied 2-2, and his opponent serving for the match, he broke-held-broke for the match to swing the momentum in Whitman's favor. In the afternoon, Whitman gutted out another win against Kalamazoo. Northam's last text has them up 5-3 with #6 singles in a third set. My verdict on Whitman remains the same: long on heart, short on talent.

Unfortunately for the Squirrels, Mary Washington looked fantastic today. They absolutely rolled both Rhodes and Kalamazoo, sweeping doubles in both matches to pretty much eliminate any doubt about the outcome early on. Interestingly, they lost at #2 singles in both matches. I don't know if that's significant at all, but Nate Eddy actually didn't play 2 against MWU, so you can't say that's a stack. Regardless, Mary Washington's season is off to a promising start, and I think they are the clear favorite going into tomorrow.

The flip side of these results is that both Rhodes and Kalamazoo desperately need a win tomorrow. A loss for the Lynx would probably drop them out of the rankings, with their only other matches against ranked teams being Emory (unwinnable), Tyler (a win might not be enough to get them in the top 30), and a potential conference final match against Trinity (probably unwinnable). Meanwhile, Kalamazoo has had some great battles this year, but they've come out on the wrong end of all of them. I wonder if something is wrong with the spirit of the team, but one thing is almost certain: after this year, it's pretty much all over for the Hornets. Their top 3 are seniors, and they won't be able to compete without them. The results from today seem to indicate that Zoo is deeper that Rhodes, so I think the Lynx will only win if they can take the doubles, which I think they will do. I stick to my old predictions.

In other news...

#13 Hopkins def. Washington & Lee 7-2


This match says more about Washington & Lee than Hopkins. For Washington & Lee, it says they are ready to compete for a ranking spot this year. They competed extremely well at the top of the singles lineup with the Blue Jays, and only really got beat by their depth. I think they have a chance against anyone outside the top 15. Well done by the Generals. For Hopkins, all is says is, "We have 4 freshmen in our starting six! And they'll all pretty damn good!" The Blue Jays looked as good as we thought they would, and it just occurred to me that one way to shed the label as a choking team is to get a whole new team. I'll really be looking forward to their match against NCW in three weeks, which should be an absolute war.

Weekend Preview: February 18th-19th

Weekend Preview #2

Mary Washington's University Tennis Center, the site of last year's Indoors, hosts a slightly less exciting quad this weekend

Saturday


Washington & Lee @ #13 John's Hopkins

Washington & Lee beat Christopher Newport 5-4 over the weekend (in a match that went unnoticed by me), but that doesn't mean that they're ready to compete with the Blue Jays. Still, I'm interested in this match to see which of Hopkins' 39 freshmen will be playing in the starting lineup. I'll take Hop, 9-0, on their home courts, as they try to start off the season on the right foot, and strike some fear into the hearts of their opponents.

#19 Case Western @ #16 Depauw

This is the match of the weekend--at least in terms of NCAA tournament implications. Case had an extremely disappointing weekend, but it was pointed out to me that winning 2 out of 3 doubles against NCW looks a little better in light of the Bishops' victory over Kenyon. A loss would be devastating for Depauw, but it would essentially end Case's chances of making NCAAs. There's definitely a lot on the line for such an early season match. I'm tempted to take Case because they've already played some intense matches, but I think Depauw is slightly underrated, and, in the words of G.W. Bush, "Fool me once, shame on-- shame on you. Fool me-- you can't get fooled again." I'm gonna go with Depauw, 6-3.

Sunday


#11 Chicago vs. #21 Wisconsin-Whitewater

In my season preview of Whitewater, I said they had no chance to win this one. Then I saw the Maroon's box score against Kalamazoo this weekend, and I was reminded that they lost 2 of 3 doubles to Grinnell. I was hoping for Chicago's sake that their new coach would have instilled a little discipline into them, but I can see that they still like to mess around. If they're not serious, Whitewater could surprise them, but I still think they will do enough to get the W this time. I'll take Chicago, 6-3.

Mary Washington Quad


I wouldn't be surprised if none of these teams make it out of the weekend unbeaten, but I think that Mary Washington has the best chance. These four teams are probably more even than anyone would have anticipated when they scheduled it, and it reminds me of a best-of-five match between Nadal and Djokovic (not in level of tennis): even when one of them is clearly playing better than the other, it never ends in three sets. The losing player always has enough pride and grit to pull out at least one set, and it's so easy for the other to get complacent with the lead. That's how I see this weekend playing out.

In the Saturday morning matches, Mary Washington will come out excited and fresh for their first big match of the season and gut out a 6-3 win over Kalamazoo. Whoever wins the doubles will win the afternoon match between Whitman and Rhodes, but after Whitman's performance last weekend, I think they will come out energized and take advantage of Rhodes' lack of match toughness. Probably 5-4 either way in that one

In the afternoon matches, Mary Washington will take care of business with its biggest crowd of the weekend (I just don't see many college students showing up for those weekend morning matches). Rhodes has a shot at this one if they come out angry, but I don't think their lineup matches up well with MWU. Probably 7-2 again for MWU. Kalamazoo will be sick of losing close matches by the time the afternoon rolls around, and Whitman will either feel nervous about backing up their results or overly-confident. I think the Hornets win 2 of 3 doubles, and Whitman won't be able to recover in singles. 6-3 Kalamazoo.

In the Sunday matches, I just think MWU is better than Whitman, especially on their home courts. I also think Whitman will struggle their second day in the Eastern time zone. 6-3 MWU. In the final match, I think Rhodes will come out like an angry bear and beat 'Zoo. This prediction is more about heart than anything about these two teams' lineups. The Lynx will be determined not to leave Fredericksburg without a win.

Obviously, with teams this close is skill level, it could go any way, but I think it's likely that the end result will look something like:

MWU 3-0
Rhodes 1-2
Whitman 1-2
Kalamazoo 1-2

Season Preview #23: Rhodes

#23 Rhodes

I don't know who these guys are, but can someone tell me why the net man is standing?

General Discussion


Before I get into it, I want to start off by saying that I'm going to try to get through season previews for the top 30 before Indoors, so they might get a little shorter. Obviously, a few teams outside the top 30 like Kalamazoo deserve a season preview, but you have to draw the line somewhere.

Anyways, Rhodes is the antithesis to the saying, "nothing ventured, nothing gained." They have played almost nobody in the last couple years, yet they are rewarded with their #23 ranking because they haven't lost. This year, they will finally have to back up their ranking against someone other than UT-Tyler when they travel to Mary Washington. Because they have so few meaningful results, it's extremely difficult to get a pulse on this team. They also make it deliberately difficult to figure out who is on their team by not keeping an accurate tennisrecruiting profile, but they actually have a ton of talent. They lost their 4 and 6 singles players from last year, as well as their #3 doubles team, so they might have depth problems. It's impossible to tell who they brought in, so we'll just have to wait and see.

Where They'll Win


They only played 3 matches against ranked teams last year, but in those three matches, they went 11-1 at 1, 2, 5, and 6 singles. I think it's fair to say that they had two standouts, and then four players that were about even with each other. Ryley Erhardt won almost every match he played last year at 1, and he's back this year with a little more of an opportunity to show what he's got. Morgan Slevin also had a strong season at 2, and he's back also, so 1 and 2 singles should be Rhodes' best positions. Slevin and Erhardt also played well together in the Fall, so if the Lynx keep that doubles pairing, #1 doubles will also be a strong position for them

Where They'll Lose


Two years ago, the Lynx really struggled in doubles, but they shored that up last year by splitting their two best players. If they keep them together this year, Rhodes could be weak at #2 and 3 doubles, but what I'm really concerned about for them is the middle of their singles lineup. They went 0-6 against ranked teams at 3 and 4 last year, and their #4 player graduated. So their #3 player, who struggled last year will still be playing three, and their #5 will have to move up and play 4. I'm guessing that the Lynx will have players to step in and fill the void at 5 and 6, but they will need wins from the 3 and 4 positions to beat ranked teams this year.

Schedule Analysis


I'm glad I got to this season preview now, because the bulk of their significant matches take place this weekend. They're in the Mary Washington, Whitman, Kalamazoo quad, and they will probably need to win two of those to keep their ranking. They play Emory two weeks later, which will be good for them to see what's out there, and then they have their yearly matchup with UT-Tyler. The Patriots have taken a couple tough losses from the Lynx in the last few years, and this should be a good grudge match. After that, all they have is the SCAC tournament, and, with Depauw out of the way, you bet on a final match with Trinity.

Prediction


There's just so little to go off of, it's difficult to make a prediction for this team. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they went 3-0 this weekend, but I also wouldn't be that surprised if they went 0-3. Either way, a win over UT-Tyler might be enough to keep them in the rankings, but they only way this program takes a step forward is if they beat Trinity to make it to the NCAA tournament. That's not happening, so I think the best case scenario for the Lynx this year is a year-end ranking around #19, and that only happens if they beat MWU, Whitman, Kalamazoo, and Tyler. I don't think that's going to happen, and my guess is that Rhodes will end the year a little lower than where they started it. Probably in the 26-30 range.