Another Big Upset

NCW Senior, Alexey Rumyantsev

http://athletics.kenyon.edu/x42122.xml

#12 NC-Wesleyan 5, #7 Kenyon 4


So much for that talk about Kenyon being a possible Final Four team. And so much for the talk about NC-Wesleyan sucking at doubles. I. Am. Always. Wrong.

Anyways, NC-Wesleyan looked good in doubles today. It seems like Kenyon was lucky to get the one point that they got. In singles, NCW got a fairly routine victory at #3 singles, but the Kenyon freshmen stepped up big. That must have left the match at 3-3, with three matches left. NCW showed once again that they are exceptionally deep, taking five and six. I think we can take away from this match that just because a team looks dominant one weekend, doesn't necessarily mean they always play that way.

Kenyon


I can't wait to see how the Lords respond to this loss at Indoors. It's gotta be heartbreaking to lose a match like that on your home courts, and I know that Kenyon is really confident this year. Will a loss like this shake their confidence? Or will they come out like a wounded bear? Burgin is playing like a savvy veteran, and could actually be one of the best players in the country. Their freshman are also playing like savvy veterans, which is a nice little bonus for the Lords. But so far, the bottom of their lineup is slightly suspect, and they need to shore that up before Indoors, or they could see their ranking start to slip in a hurry. We really have no idea how Depauw is going to be this year, but they have to come back with a vengeance so that everyone knows the conference championship is not in question.

NC-Wesleyan


This is an awesome win for the Battling Bishops, and they can expect to be in the top 10 when the rankings come out in March. They will have to back it up with a victory over JHU if they want to keep that ranking. I think it's pretty apparent that NCW's success against higher-ranked teams will be heavily dependent on their doubles play. Their singles lineup is so good that, if they can take two doubles matches, they can beat anyone in the country (except for Amherst and Claremont). Anyone know how a higher ranking could affect the shape of NCAA's this year?

In other news...

http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=228997&page=lr

#11 Chicago 5, Kalamazoo 4


What!? At least I picked the winner right this time. Jesus. And that score is with a doubles sweep from the Maroons. What are they doing!? I really have no words for this team. They might actually lose to Wisconsin-Whitewater. I never would have thought that was possible. They mystify me. For all I know, they could turn around and win two matches at Indoors. I'm going to reserve judgement on them.

Kalamazoo

The Hornets are definitely strong this year, and they are my new pick to beat Whitman next weekend. This group of seniors seems to be hungry to get their team back into the national rankings, and they have plenty of opportunities: Whitman, Rhodes, and Mary Washington next weekend; Whitewater the following weekend; and Trinity (CT) over Spring Break. I think they can get one. But again, we'll reassess after next weekend. I just had a total nostalgia moment. It's hard to believe the Hornets were ranked #17 and coming off a huge victory over Chicago about this time two years ago. How things have changed...

Whitman Stuns Cruz (and other weekend results)

Whitman Junior, Jeff Tolman

#29 Whitman 6, #6 Santa Cruz 3

I was going to try to hold off on posting about this weekend until it was over, but what happened last night needs writing about. Whitman beat Cruz 6-3, and the box score doesn't even make it look like an upset (I got this off Coach Northam's blog because it's not on the ITA website yet. you can also read about the match at http://www.whitmantennis.net):

Doubles

• Matt Tesmond/Conor Holton-Burke def Devin Nerenberg/Eli Scandalis 8-1
• Jeff Tolman/Andrew La Cava def Erik Rosner/Ian Stanley 8-6
• James Rivers/Sam Sadeghi def Sam Rodgers/Erich Koenig 9-7

Singles

• Andrew La Cava lost Devin Nerenberg 6-3, 6-4
• Jeff Tolman def Erich Koenig 6-3, 6-4
• Conor Holton-Burke def Andre Halabi 7-6, 6-0
• James Rivers lost Erik Rosner 4-6, 7-6, 6-4
• Sam Sadeghi lost Bryce Bettwy 5-7, 6-2, 10-7
• Adriel Borshansky def Sam Rodgers 6-2 6-4

Normally, with a colossal upset, you see a doubles sweep followed by two tight victories. This isn't that. From Northam's blog, it seems like this match was a lot closer to being 8-1 Whitman than 5-4 Cruz. Whitman had a match point at #4 singles, and you can see from the score line that they came close at #5.

There are two ways to look at this result. You can look at it and say, "Cruz lost its edge when it lost Hansen, and is now clearly overrated. They will probably finish the season outside the top 15 for the first time in forever." Or you can say, "Whitman must be much better than we thought they were. They're bound to be tough on their home court, so let's not overreact to the Cruz loss and just give Whitman some credit." In reality, it's probably a combo of both, but I want to cover both sides of it.

Cruz

It didn't seem like this would be a down year for Cruz. They were supposed to return 5 out of 6, and, even though they lost an all-time great in Pybas, they added Nurenberg, so that shouldn't hurt them too much. Unfortunately, they also lost Parker Larsen for some reason, and I think that loss really has them reeling. Cruz has always been one of the best doubles team, and without Larsen and Pybas, they lose their #1 team from last year. That's hard to recover from. I want to take it easy on Coach Parmelly, but I just don't think Hansen would have let his team go down 0-3 in a hostile environment. No matter how tough you are, you can't come back from that against a good team.

The upswing of all this is that Cruz desperately, desperately needs a win against Trinity at Indoors. If they can get it, they can write this loss off as a bit of a fluke like that loss to Cal Lu two years ago, and everything will be right in the world. If they lose, the mumbles and grumbles about Hansen will only get louder. This is a program with a lot of tradition, and I think D3 was overreacting a little bit last night when he said something along the lines of "this is the beginning of the end of the golden age of Cruz tennis," but they need to do better and fast.

Whitman

I think it's only appropriate for me to just eat my words about Whitman. I was wrong. They won, and they looked good doing it. Looking at their results from this year, they have clearly been playing great tennis this whole time. They beat Hawaii-Pacific (ranked #22 in DII) earlier this year, and they've given some DI teams a tough time. Still, just like with the Cruz situation, I don't think people should overreact. I don't think it's safe to consider Whitman a top 15 team yet. The last couple years, they've had some big wins against Pomona and Trinity (Tx), so in a way, we already knew that they were capable of playing like a top 10 team one out of six times. Each of the past two years, however, they've followed up their big win by laying a huge egg. Two years ago, they lost to Redlands by an uncompetitive 7-2 score after beating Pomona, and last year they lost to Texas-Tyler 6-3 after beating Trinity.

That said, Whitman has what might be the most important weekend in program history this weekend when they travel to Virginia to play Mary Washington, Rhodes, and Kalamazoo. These matches weren't on the D3 calendar, but they're on the Whitman website. Honestly, I think Whitman will probably drop at least one of these three matches, which will murder their chances at a top 15 ranking. They will be under a lot of pressure to back up their big win, and they will have to beat three good teams far, far away from home. Even if that happens, this is a great win for a program that's long on heart and short on talent. I would love to see what Whitman could do with some better recruits.

Other Weekend Results

#7 Kenyon 8, #19 Case Western 1

http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=228778&page=lr

I'm a little tired of typing at this point, so I'll keep this brief. I was wrong, again. I'm not off to a good start with this prediction thing. It looks like Case isn't actually ready for the big time, as they got killed by Kenyon, and there's no way you can look at this score line and say that it was close. Kenyon got two easy wins in doubles, and the third one looks solid, aswell. Then, Kenyon demolished Case at three of the singles positions. Burgin and Williams are off to great starts, and the Lords are getting contributions from their freshman already. I think this recruiting class could help these guys make the push into the final four. We'll know more after today's match.

#12 NCW 7, #19 Case Western 2

http://athletics.case.edu/sports/mten/2011-12/files/case-ncm.htm

This boxscore confirms that Case just isn't ready to move into the top 15, but I'll talk about NCW first. Why can't they play doubles!? I don't get it. Their singles lineup is so strong, and they can sweep anyone outside the top 15 off the singles court. Why can't they put together cohesive doubles teams. It doesn't make any sense. They need to turn their doubles around if they want to become the team they think that they already are. Right now, their doubles is preventing them from moving into the top 10. Other than that, their singles lineup looks great. They absolutely demolished Case, and I think the relatively easy wins at the bottom of the lineup are an especially good sign because I didn't know how deep they were (it's hard to tell how good their bench players are when they're all international)

With regard to Case. I was wrong. Oh boy, was I wrong. They didn't even compete with Kenyon and NCW in singles. It's clear that they can still play good doubles, but even a doubles sweep won't help if you can't win a singles match. Hopefully they can turn it around this week before they play Depauw. If they lose that one, their chances of making NCAAs will fall from slim to none.

Weekend Preview: February 10-12

Weekend Preview #1

Kenyon's Jasper Tennis Center is the place to be for D3 tennis fans this weekend

Now that I've reached the #20 mark for the season previews, I thought it might be nice to take a little break and talk about matches that are actually happening. Before I get into it though, I'd like to spare a few words for the first "match between ranked teams" that took place last weekend. Kenyon crushed Kalamazoo 8-1, but the match was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Three singles matches went to three sets, and the Hornets were close to taking 2 out of 3 doubles. Kalamazoo might have a chance to get themselves back in the top 30 this year, but unfortunately for them, they will most likely fall out of the national scene after this season, as their top 3 are all seniors, and they've had three incredibly mediocre recruiting classes

Friday


#19 Case Western @ #7 Kenyon


I just did the Case preview, so anyone who read that knows that I really like them, but there's really no reason for me to think that they would beat Kenyon, especially on Kenyon's courts. Kenyon only lost one player, and brought in a much stronger recruiting class than Case. Still, I think this match could be closer than a lot of people might expect, and I'm going to predict a 6-3 Kenyon victory.

Saturday


#12 NC Wesleyan vs. #19 Case Western


I'm assuming this match is going to be played on Kenyon's courts, since NCW is playing Kenyon on Sunday. This match actually has some upset potential. Case plays strong doubles, NWC plays weak doubles, and NWC struggle at Indoors to start the season last year. I expect Case to take #2 doubles, and you would have to pick NWC at #1 doubles, but if Case can take either 1 or 3 doubles, the Battling Bishops could be in for a tough loss. We obviously don't know where the strengths in these teams' singles lineups are this year, but if Case can find two wins in the 1-5 range, I think they are probably stronger at #6 indoors. I might look stupid for this in a couple days, but I'm actually going to take Case in a 5-4 upset over NC Wesleyan. You gotta pick some upsets sometimes, right?

Washington and Lee @ #7 Kenyon


There isn't much reason to think this will be a close match, but we will get a look at whether Washington and Lee's freshmen are ready to propel them back into the top 30. Kenyon 8-1.

#6 Santa Cruz @ #29 Whitman


Cruz returns to Whitman for its semi-annual pre-Indoors trip, and I would expect this match to go a lot like the last two. Whitman will probably ride a wave of emotion to a doubles victory, but Cruz will end up winning 8-1. I will be looking at the box score, however, to see if Cruz is ready to rebound from their tough Fall season and perform well at nationals. Whitman, on the other hand, is a program on the decline, and just can't seem to get the kind of recruits other schools are getting.

Sunday


#12 NC Wesleyan @ #7 Kenyon


This match should be the first real test for the Lords, and, more excitingly, it's the first match between top 15 teams this season. If NC Wesleyan is for real this year, they will have beaten Case and will get loud in Jasper Tennis Center. Kenyon, on the other hand, will be well-prepared after matches with Case, W&L, and Kalamazoo, and I doubt they will give up a match on their home courts. NCW hasn't played strong doubles for the past two years, but if they can win one, it will be #1 doubles. One doubles win would be enough to keep the Bishops in it because their singles are traditionally strong, but I think Kenyon is just too deep. I think they will win 2 and 3 doubles, as well as 3 out of the 3-6 singles positions, plus one of the remaining three positions (1 dubs, 1 and 2 singles) for a 6-3 victory.

#11 Chicago @ Kalamazoo


We saw that Kalamazoo is probably stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates, but that doesn't mean they're strong enough to beat the Maroons. Their home courts probably give them one victory, and a flaky performance from one of the Chicago singles players might give them another, but I'm predicting Chicago 8-1 or 7-2.

Season Preview #12: North Carolina Weslyan

#12 North Carolina Weslyan


General Discussion


NCW is kind of an enigma within Division 3 tennis. The school isn't known for strong academics like pretty much all of the other schools in the top 15. They recruit international players like a D1 school, and they seem not to care too much about doubles (like a D1 school). The only problem with that is that their international players aren't as good as the ones at Baylor, and D3 uses a 9-point scoring system, so doubles sort of matters. Sorry, that sounds meaner than it was meant to be. I have a ton of respect for NCW for breaking the mold and finding a way to be successful in a D3 environment that would normally doom a school like NCW to obscurity. While the Battling Bishops have had tremendous success, they still aren't living up to the lofty expectations they set for themselves. Two years ago, I remember some of NCW's players complaining that they never got the chance to prove how good they were because other schools were ducking them, but when they got the opportunity to play them at Indoors last year, they didn't exactly deliver. Now, they've entrenched themselves in the D3 elite, and they don't have to worry about scheduling problems anymore. If they don't live up to their expectations this year, they'll have nobody to blame but themselves.


Where They'll Win


NCW lost their #1 singles player from last year, but I'm pretty sure the story on them is the same as it has been. They will be strong in singles, especially in the middle of the lineup. They went 12-3 in the 4-6 spots against top 25 teams last year, and, even though their #4 and #5 (Lemongo and Sonn) will have to play one spot higher, I think that will be offset by a year of practice. It's hard for me to gauge their recruiting class or whether the players coming off their bench are capable because they are all international, and, therefore, don't have junior records that are easily accessible or decipherable by me. Nonetheless, I would guess that their roster is a lot like any other D3 team's roster, and they have some hungry players ready to fill in at the #5 and #6 spots


Where They'll Lose


This one is pretty easy. The Battling Bishops always struggle in doubles. It was more pronounced two years ago than it was last year, which indicates that they are working on it, but they still didn't do very well in doubles last year. They lost two out of three against JHU and Trinity, and got swept by Emory and Wash U. But the match against JHU shows what they can do if they can just keep the match close. Still, Hopkins isn't exactly a notoriously good doubles team, and if the Bishops want to make the next step, they will have to start winning doubles matches. Their #1 team won the ITA regional tournament, so that is a nice little ray of hope for them, but they will need to win two or three doubles matches if they want to upset someone like Emory or Wash U. Right now, it doesn't look like they can do that.

Schedule Analysis


Because they don't have Indoors this year, the Battling Bishops' success will be largely dependent on an important few regular season matches. They start off with Case and Kenyon in early February, as the Lords get ready for Indoors. Around spring break, they have their rematch with Hopkins, and a tough match against Chicago in Hilton Head. They're also traveling to Fredericksburg to play Mary Washington and CMU. It's a tough schedule: a lot of teams that could upset them and very few opportunities to improve their ranking. In the end, they might drop a few ranking points, but they will definitely be battle-tested come tourney time.

Prediction


Since I have no info on their recruiting class, this is particularly difficult. They could completely fall off because they have nobody good enough to play #5 and #6 (Cal Lu from last year rings a bell). Regardless, I see them getting "upset" by JHU because of that massive recruiting class, and, based on their struggles indoors last year, I think they will definitely lose to Kenyon and might actually lose to CMU or Mary Washington. Nevertheless, they will win their conference, and the only thing that really matters is if they can play the match of their life in the Sweet Sixteen against (probably) Emory, or get a good draw and beat Hopkins. Unfortunately, I think the season will end in the Sweet Sixteen for the Battling Bishops


Schedule Analysis


Prediction