Indoors Predictions

The Swanson Tennis Center welcomes Indoors back to its bubbly interior this weekend

#2 Emory vs. Gustavus Adolphus


It's good for the Gusties to play matches like this, but, honestly, they don't have any chance. Gustavus has a couple good players, but they are no match for Pottish/Goodwin, and Emory is by far the deeper team. Goodwin hasn't been playing so far this year, so he might be injured, but I think the Eagles will sweep the singles with or without him. Gustavus was able to win a point in each of their matches last time they hosted, and if they're going to get one in this one, they're going to have to do it in doubles. I don't see that happening, and I think Emory will win 9-0

#3 Wash U vs. #11 University of Chicago


Wash U beat the #19 ranked team in DII last week, so it looks like they will be as strong as ever this year. The box score indicates that they are incredibly deep, as they took 5 and 6 singles easily. I think we all know the story with Chicago by now. On paper, it seems like this match should be pretty even, and last year, it was. But history will not repeat itself at Indoors. The Maroons swept the Bears last year, but I think it will be the other way around this time. Wash U will come out energized and sweep the doubles. They will proceed to roll through singles. Chicago will pick up its lone win from Jan Stefanski, who always seems to win (and is probably playing way lower than he should be). Wash U, 8-1.

#6 Santa Cruz vs. #10 Trinity (TX)


The Slugs rebounded nicely today against Bates, and momentarily quenched some of the fatalistic rhetoric surrounding the program. Trinity has only played a handful of non-DIII matches so far, and it's hard to know where their strength is. I think this match will come down to the wire, as it did last year, but I think Cruz' experience with indoor tennis at Whitman will ultimately help them win this one. I think Cruz wins #3 doubles, Trinity wins #2 doubles, Cruz wins #1 singles, Trinity wins #3 singles, and Cruz takes 2 out of the 4-6 positions. Trinity probably has a slight edge at #1 doubles with the very experience Frey/DelaFuente , but the Rosner/Stanley doubles team is playing well. Santa Cruz will win if Koenig can find his form and beat Dela Fuente, which I think he will. Santa Cruz, 5-4.

#7 Kenyon vs. #8 Pomona-Pitzer


This is a very interesting matchup. The Lords are coming off a disappointing loss to NCW, so they should be hungry to win this one to prove that they are for real this year. P-P has never played at Indoors before, and I think it's probably a safe bet to say that their players won't be used to playing Indoor tennis at all. Also, when these two teams met last year, it was an absolute war. I like the Lords to come out on top in this one, 6-3. I think the Hens could take a 2-1 lead after doubles, but I think the Lords are probably stronger 4-6, and I think they will take two out of the top 3. I think Kenyon is better prepared to play this match inside, on a big stage, and that will ultimately be the difference. When they meet in the Stag-Hen, it will probably be a different story.

Another Big Upset

NCW Senior, Alexey Rumyantsev

http://athletics.kenyon.edu/x42122.xml

#12 NC-Wesleyan 5, #7 Kenyon 4


So much for that talk about Kenyon being a possible Final Four team. And so much for the talk about NC-Wesleyan sucking at doubles. I. Am. Always. Wrong.

Anyways, NC-Wesleyan looked good in doubles today. It seems like Kenyon was lucky to get the one point that they got. In singles, NCW got a fairly routine victory at #3 singles, but the Kenyon freshmen stepped up big. That must have left the match at 3-3, with three matches left. NCW showed once again that they are exceptionally deep, taking five and six. I think we can take away from this match that just because a team looks dominant one weekend, doesn't necessarily mean they always play that way.

Kenyon


I can't wait to see how the Lords respond to this loss at Indoors. It's gotta be heartbreaking to lose a match like that on your home courts, and I know that Kenyon is really confident this year. Will a loss like this shake their confidence? Or will they come out like a wounded bear? Burgin is playing like a savvy veteran, and could actually be one of the best players in the country. Their freshman are also playing like savvy veterans, which is a nice little bonus for the Lords. But so far, the bottom of their lineup is slightly suspect, and they need to shore that up before Indoors, or they could see their ranking start to slip in a hurry. We really have no idea how Depauw is going to be this year, but they have to come back with a vengeance so that everyone knows the conference championship is not in question.

NC-Wesleyan


This is an awesome win for the Battling Bishops, and they can expect to be in the top 10 when the rankings come out in March. They will have to back it up with a victory over JHU if they want to keep that ranking. I think it's pretty apparent that NCW's success against higher-ranked teams will be heavily dependent on their doubles play. Their singles lineup is so good that, if they can take two doubles matches, they can beat anyone in the country (except for Amherst and Claremont). Anyone know how a higher ranking could affect the shape of NCAA's this year?

In other news...

http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=228997&page=lr

#11 Chicago 5, Kalamazoo 4


What!? At least I picked the winner right this time. Jesus. And that score is with a doubles sweep from the Maroons. What are they doing!? I really have no words for this team. They might actually lose to Wisconsin-Whitewater. I never would have thought that was possible. They mystify me. For all I know, they could turn around and win two matches at Indoors. I'm going to reserve judgement on them.

Kalamazoo

The Hornets are definitely strong this year, and they are my new pick to beat Whitman next weekend. This group of seniors seems to be hungry to get their team back into the national rankings, and they have plenty of opportunities: Whitman, Rhodes, and Mary Washington next weekend; Whitewater the following weekend; and Trinity (CT) over Spring Break. I think they can get one. But again, we'll reassess after next weekend. I just had a total nostalgia moment. It's hard to believe the Hornets were ranked #17 and coming off a huge victory over Chicago about this time two years ago. How things have changed...

Whitman Stuns Cruz (and other weekend results)

Whitman Junior, Jeff Tolman

#29 Whitman 6, #6 Santa Cruz 3

I was going to try to hold off on posting about this weekend until it was over, but what happened last night needs writing about. Whitman beat Cruz 6-3, and the box score doesn't even make it look like an upset (I got this off Coach Northam's blog because it's not on the ITA website yet. you can also read about the match at http://www.whitmantennis.net):

Doubles

• Matt Tesmond/Conor Holton-Burke def Devin Nerenberg/Eli Scandalis 8-1
• Jeff Tolman/Andrew La Cava def Erik Rosner/Ian Stanley 8-6
• James Rivers/Sam Sadeghi def Sam Rodgers/Erich Koenig 9-7

Singles

• Andrew La Cava lost Devin Nerenberg 6-3, 6-4
• Jeff Tolman def Erich Koenig 6-3, 6-4
• Conor Holton-Burke def Andre Halabi 7-6, 6-0
• James Rivers lost Erik Rosner 4-6, 7-6, 6-4
• Sam Sadeghi lost Bryce Bettwy 5-7, 6-2, 10-7
• Adriel Borshansky def Sam Rodgers 6-2 6-4

Normally, with a colossal upset, you see a doubles sweep followed by two tight victories. This isn't that. From Northam's blog, it seems like this match was a lot closer to being 8-1 Whitman than 5-4 Cruz. Whitman had a match point at #4 singles, and you can see from the score line that they came close at #5.

There are two ways to look at this result. You can look at it and say, "Cruz lost its edge when it lost Hansen, and is now clearly overrated. They will probably finish the season outside the top 15 for the first time in forever." Or you can say, "Whitman must be much better than we thought they were. They're bound to be tough on their home court, so let's not overreact to the Cruz loss and just give Whitman some credit." In reality, it's probably a combo of both, but I want to cover both sides of it.

Cruz

It didn't seem like this would be a down year for Cruz. They were supposed to return 5 out of 6, and, even though they lost an all-time great in Pybas, they added Nurenberg, so that shouldn't hurt them too much. Unfortunately, they also lost Parker Larsen for some reason, and I think that loss really has them reeling. Cruz has always been one of the best doubles team, and without Larsen and Pybas, they lose their #1 team from last year. That's hard to recover from. I want to take it easy on Coach Parmelly, but I just don't think Hansen would have let his team go down 0-3 in a hostile environment. No matter how tough you are, you can't come back from that against a good team.

The upswing of all this is that Cruz desperately, desperately needs a win against Trinity at Indoors. If they can get it, they can write this loss off as a bit of a fluke like that loss to Cal Lu two years ago, and everything will be right in the world. If they lose, the mumbles and grumbles about Hansen will only get louder. This is a program with a lot of tradition, and I think D3 was overreacting a little bit last night when he said something along the lines of "this is the beginning of the end of the golden age of Cruz tennis," but they need to do better and fast.

Whitman

I think it's only appropriate for me to just eat my words about Whitman. I was wrong. They won, and they looked good doing it. Looking at their results from this year, they have clearly been playing great tennis this whole time. They beat Hawaii-Pacific (ranked #22 in DII) earlier this year, and they've given some DI teams a tough time. Still, just like with the Cruz situation, I don't think people should overreact. I don't think it's safe to consider Whitman a top 15 team yet. The last couple years, they've had some big wins against Pomona and Trinity (Tx), so in a way, we already knew that they were capable of playing like a top 10 team one out of six times. Each of the past two years, however, they've followed up their big win by laying a huge egg. Two years ago, they lost to Redlands by an uncompetitive 7-2 score after beating Pomona, and last year they lost to Texas-Tyler 6-3 after beating Trinity.

That said, Whitman has what might be the most important weekend in program history this weekend when they travel to Virginia to play Mary Washington, Rhodes, and Kalamazoo. These matches weren't on the D3 calendar, but they're on the Whitman website. Honestly, I think Whitman will probably drop at least one of these three matches, which will murder their chances at a top 15 ranking. They will be under a lot of pressure to back up their big win, and they will have to beat three good teams far, far away from home. Even if that happens, this is a great win for a program that's long on heart and short on talent. I would love to see what Whitman could do with some better recruits.

Other Weekend Results

#7 Kenyon 8, #19 Case Western 1

http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=228778&page=lr

I'm a little tired of typing at this point, so I'll keep this brief. I was wrong, again. I'm not off to a good start with this prediction thing. It looks like Case isn't actually ready for the big time, as they got killed by Kenyon, and there's no way you can look at this score line and say that it was close. Kenyon got two easy wins in doubles, and the third one looks solid, aswell. Then, Kenyon demolished Case at three of the singles positions. Burgin and Williams are off to great starts, and the Lords are getting contributions from their freshman already. I think this recruiting class could help these guys make the push into the final four. We'll know more after today's match.

#12 NCW 7, #19 Case Western 2

http://athletics.case.edu/sports/mten/2011-12/files/case-ncm.htm

This boxscore confirms that Case just isn't ready to move into the top 15, but I'll talk about NCW first. Why can't they play doubles!? I don't get it. Their singles lineup is so strong, and they can sweep anyone outside the top 15 off the singles court. Why can't they put together cohesive doubles teams. It doesn't make any sense. They need to turn their doubles around if they want to become the team they think that they already are. Right now, their doubles is preventing them from moving into the top 10. Other than that, their singles lineup looks great. They absolutely demolished Case, and I think the relatively easy wins at the bottom of the lineup are an especially good sign because I didn't know how deep they were (it's hard to tell how good their bench players are when they're all international)

With regard to Case. I was wrong. Oh boy, was I wrong. They didn't even compete with Kenyon and NCW in singles. It's clear that they can still play good doubles, but even a doubles sweep won't help if you can't win a singles match. Hopefully they can turn it around this week before they play Depauw. If they lose that one, their chances of making NCAAs will fall from slim to none.

Weekend Preview: February 10-12

Weekend Preview #1

Kenyon's Jasper Tennis Center is the place to be for D3 tennis fans this weekend

Now that I've reached the #20 mark for the season previews, I thought it might be nice to take a little break and talk about matches that are actually happening. Before I get into it though, I'd like to spare a few words for the first "match between ranked teams" that took place last weekend. Kenyon crushed Kalamazoo 8-1, but the match was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Three singles matches went to three sets, and the Hornets were close to taking 2 out of 3 doubles. Kalamazoo might have a chance to get themselves back in the top 30 this year, but unfortunately for them, they will most likely fall out of the national scene after this season, as their top 3 are all seniors, and they've had three incredibly mediocre recruiting classes

Friday


#19 Case Western @ #7 Kenyon


I just did the Case preview, so anyone who read that knows that I really like them, but there's really no reason for me to think that they would beat Kenyon, especially on Kenyon's courts. Kenyon only lost one player, and brought in a much stronger recruiting class than Case. Still, I think this match could be closer than a lot of people might expect, and I'm going to predict a 6-3 Kenyon victory.

Saturday


#12 NC Wesleyan vs. #19 Case Western


I'm assuming this match is going to be played on Kenyon's courts, since NCW is playing Kenyon on Sunday. This match actually has some upset potential. Case plays strong doubles, NWC plays weak doubles, and NWC struggle at Indoors to start the season last year. I expect Case to take #2 doubles, and you would have to pick NWC at #1 doubles, but if Case can take either 1 or 3 doubles, the Battling Bishops could be in for a tough loss. We obviously don't know where the strengths in these teams' singles lineups are this year, but if Case can find two wins in the 1-5 range, I think they are probably stronger at #6 indoors. I might look stupid for this in a couple days, but I'm actually going to take Case in a 5-4 upset over NC Wesleyan. You gotta pick some upsets sometimes, right?

Washington and Lee @ #7 Kenyon


There isn't much reason to think this will be a close match, but we will get a look at whether Washington and Lee's freshmen are ready to propel them back into the top 30. Kenyon 8-1.

#6 Santa Cruz @ #29 Whitman


Cruz returns to Whitman for its semi-annual pre-Indoors trip, and I would expect this match to go a lot like the last two. Whitman will probably ride a wave of emotion to a doubles victory, but Cruz will end up winning 8-1. I will be looking at the box score, however, to see if Cruz is ready to rebound from their tough Fall season and perform well at nationals. Whitman, on the other hand, is a program on the decline, and just can't seem to get the kind of recruits other schools are getting.

Sunday


#12 NC Wesleyan @ #7 Kenyon


This match should be the first real test for the Lords, and, more excitingly, it's the first match between top 15 teams this season. If NC Wesleyan is for real this year, they will have beaten Case and will get loud in Jasper Tennis Center. Kenyon, on the other hand, will be well-prepared after matches with Case, W&L, and Kalamazoo, and I doubt they will give up a match on their home courts. NCW hasn't played strong doubles for the past two years, but if they can win one, it will be #1 doubles. One doubles win would be enough to keep the Bishops in it because their singles are traditionally strong, but I think Kenyon is just too deep. I think they will win 2 and 3 doubles, as well as 3 out of the 3-6 singles positions, plus one of the remaining three positions (1 dubs, 1 and 2 singles) for a 6-3 victory.

#11 Chicago @ Kalamazoo


We saw that Kalamazoo is probably stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates, but that doesn't mean they're strong enough to beat the Maroons. Their home courts probably give them one victory, and a flaky performance from one of the Chicago singles players might give them another, but I'm predicting Chicago 8-1 or 7-2.

Season Preview #7: Kenyon

#7 Kenyon


General Discussion


People like to talk about Kenyon like they're the little team that could, but just because they didn't have any 4- or 5-stars on their roster last year doesn't mean that they don't get talented recruits. Last year, they had six 3-stars on their roster, and all of them had at least one year of college experience. As we've learned from some of the more prestigious schools on the East Coast, sometimes one or two really good recruits don't pan out, but when you have the kind of depth in recruiting that Kenyon has, at least one of them will always improve tremendously over the course of their career and turn into a really solid player, i.e. Polster. The Lords may have lost Polster from last year's team, but they return the rest of their starting lineup, and they add an immensely talented recruiting class that includes two 4-stars. They did a great job last year, but this year could be even better. The question is: can they improve enough to make the leap into the Final Four? With the possible decline of Wash U, they might.

Where They'll Win


From their results last year, it seems that the Lords don't have any definitive strengths or weaknesses in their singles lineup, but one area where they are definitely strong is doubles. They won at least two doubles matches against Chicago, CMU, CLU, Case, Mary Washington, and Wash U. That's pretty impressive. Their singles lineup is solid enough that if they can take two doubles matches, they will find three wins against any team outside the top 5. The problem is that their singles, overall, isn't as strong as their doubles, which brings me too...

Where They'll Lose


While last year's Lords were not especially weak at any individual singles position, they were not especially strong anywhere either. That is both a blessing and a curse: everyone in the lineup knew that they had to fight for every single match, but they didn't really have one position that they could count on for consistent wins. I think that could change this year. Kenyon brought in such a strong recruiting class that they should be exceptionally deep, so their #5 and #6 positions should be exceptionally strong. That means that their weak point will be the top of the lineup. While Burgin and Williams seems to have made strides, they might not be ready to beat, for example, Lane and Erani, which is what they'll need to do if they want to make the Final Four.

Schedule Analysis


Kenyon's schedule is fantastic. They will play plenty of top 10 teams and a whole slew of teams in the second tier (which, as far as I'm concerned, goes from about 14-30 with the drop off coming after Bowdoin). They're not so good that they can afford to let down against the lower tier teams, so they will have to push themselves throughout the entire season. With regard to individual matches, I see them having to work hard to defend their ranking against NCW, Cal Lu, and Bowdoin; whereas, they have the opportunity to improve their ranking at Indoors, against UCSC, and at the Stag-Hen. Against NCW, Cal Lu, and Bowdoin, they should take the lead in doubles and never look back, but I'm really looking forward to a potential match against Emory, Wash U, or Claremont. Because the Slugs are such a question mark this year, only a match against one of those three would be the proper indicator as to whether or not Kenyon is capable of making the Final Four this year.

Prediction


There's not much point in analyzing this stuff if you don't stick your neck out every now and then. I think Kenyon is the team that usurps Wash U and take the Final Four spot. I know I said something like that for another team, but I really think Kenyon is very much improved. They are a hard-working team with great facilities, good senior leadership, and a youthful push. 3rd place finish for the Lords