Weekend (Non-Indoors) Predictions

Carnegie Mellon's Vinit Palayekar

There are some matchups happening this weekend that are worthy of recognition, but once Indoors starts, I will probably not pay attention to anything else. Here are my predictions for those matches:

Saturday


#21 Wisconsin-Whitewater @ Kalamazoo


Kalamazoo has proven that they are tough, especially on their home courts, but there's a really safe way to view this match: Whitewater beat Chicago 5-4. Kalamazoo lost to Chicago 5-4. Whitewater swept Chicago in doubles. Chicago swept Kalamazoo in doubles. I think these two teams will end up splitting the singles, but Whitewater has been really good in doubles and Kalamazoo has been atrocious. Unless something has changed drastically in the way the Hornets play doubles in the last week, I have to take the Warhawks in this one. 6-3.

#17 Carnegie Mellon vs. Luther


Luther got demolished by Whitewater two weeks ago. Sure, Whitewater is especially good this year, and CMU might be in for a down year, but I just can't pick the upset in this one. Luther apparently has two good singles players, but if they can't win in doubles, they have no chance. This is the first look we'll have at CMU this year, but until they prove that they're especially bad this year, I'll have to go with the Tartans by a score of 7-2.

#24 Brandeis @ #15 Redlands


Redlands starts its D3 schedule tomorrow against Bates, but I think it's safe to say that Bates is significantly better than Brandeis this year after the Judges' loss to Oxy. The only way I see this match being close is if the Bulldogs completely let down after a big win tomorrow. Again, Redlands have looked good this year so far, but they are prone to weird performances. Plus, the Judges will definitely be acclimated by the time they play Redlands. I think Brandeis will play its best match of the trip against Redlands but still lose 8-1.

Luther @ #16 Depauw


I consider CMU and Depauw to be a lot alike this year. Both teams competing for a Pool C bid and flying a little bit below the radar. The difference is that Depauw now has a significant blemish on its record already, so they have to play balls-to-the-wall for the rest of the season if they want to make the tournament. I think they will eventually have to take their foot off the gas, but there's no way that happens in their first big match after the upset. Depauw, 8-1.

#26 Bates @ #5 CMS


Bates, quite simply, has no chance to win this match. It's scary to me that the Stags can use teams ranked in the 20's as warm ups, but they have certainly have a well-planned schedule this year. 9-0 Claremont.

Sunday


#17 Carnegie Mellon @ #16 Depauw


If you ignore the state of Minnesota, this is the match of the weekend. After being upset by Case last weekend, Depauw absolutely cannot afford to lose this match, but the Tartans need it almost as bad. Losing to a Pool C competitor is always incredibly damaging. Given Chicago's start, Pool C looks a little bit more open to both of these teams, but neither can afford to lose this one. Depauw has the slight advantage of playing on their home courts, but that didn't help them last weekend. CMU, however, hasn't played a significant DIII match yet. I think last weekend's experience ends up making the difference in this match, and Depauw wins a 5-4 thriller.

Wild Weekend

Whitewater junior, Andrew Bayliss

Another crazy set of matches in the last 24 hours, and I'm not really sure how to cover them, so I'll just go chronologically.

#19 Case Western def. #16 Depauw 6-3

I couldn't have been more wrong about Case Western, but at least this time, the original D3 was with me. They played strong doubles, just like we knew they were capable of playing, but this time, they found a way to win three singles matches. These guys must be pretty tough to take two three setters in their fourth match of the weekend. This win saves their season, but in no way does it mean they will get a Pool C bid. Still, with Chicago's loss, it seems like they're extremely vulnerable, so all they have to do to get the bid is probably beat CMU and Chicago, which is possible. It's still a long shot, but it looks about 100 times more likely than 24 hours ago.

For Depauw, this loss is absolutely devastating. They could sneak into Pool C with wins over W-W and CMU if CMU gets got and beats Case, but in my mind, that's much less likely than them just beating Kenyon for the conference championship. Kenyon is still better, but anyone can get hot for one match. We'll see what happens next weekend for the Tigers (though that match will probably fly under the radar with Indoors)

Kalamazoo def. #23 Rhodes 5-4

This is actually a really interesting result. For one, Kalamazoo finally got a tight win, but from the start times of the two matches in Fredericksburg this morning, I'm guessing they started the match with singles. That means the match was already clinched by the time they went into doubles. I really think this helped Kalamazoo because, if they had been down 0-3 going into singles, it's probably much less likely that they win five of six singles. Regardless, the Hornets finally got their win, and that bodes well for them the rest of the season. They have winnable matches against Whitewater and Trinity left, and they will probably need to win one of those to finish the year in the national rankings.

Rhodes, on the other hand, will probably fall out of the national rankings, and they have little hope of returning. Their only other matches against ranked teams are against Tyler (which will probably fall out of the national rankings themselves) and a possible match with Trinity in the conference chamionship (which is probably unwinnable). The Lynx are still a good team, but they really needed a win this weekend, and they didn't get it.

#29 Whitman def. #22 Mary Washington

I've been pretty harsh on Whitman so far, but when you're wrong, you're wrong. On paper, they really have no business beating Mary Washington, but they found a way to win again today. D3 mentioned that the weekend was a total team effort, and it's true that they won at least one match from every position (a statistical unlikelihood over the course of three matches). They will be probably be rewarded for their play this weekend with a top 15 ranking, and they are now the biggest Cruz fans on the face of the planet. All they have left on their schedule are matches against an underrated Whittier team and Trinity (CT). They have to avoid to letdown if they want to stay away from the brutal California regional for sure. Short on talent, long on heart.

For Mary Washington, this match hurts, but it's not the end of the world. The big concern is that they looked so much better than Whitman yesterday. They have to be asking themselves how it all went wrong, and I have no idea. I know the Eagles are hoping to return to prominence, but they don't have as much to worry about with Salisbury anymore, so they pretty much have a ticket to NCAAs. Plus, they have a ton of matches left against ranked teams, so they'll have plenty of chances to get their ranking up. Next up for them is a California swing against Cal Lu, Pomona, and Redlands. If they can get a win there, it would be huge.

as good as those matches were, the match of the night goes to....

#21 Whitewater def. #11 Chicago 5-4

I was extremely harsh on Whitewater in the season preview, and I think I have to learn to stop paying so much attention to tennisrecruiting.net. The teams that are ranked with poor recruits are clearly up their for a reason, and Whitewater also has a ton of heart. This box score has the classic look of an upset: a doubles sweep followed by two gritty singles wins. The Warhawks have always played good doubles. Hopefully they don't have to rely on it so much in the future. Up next for Whitewater is Kalamazoo, a match I now think they will win. As a side note, the schedule on Whitewater's calendar doesn't include Depauw, but I think they're playing. This match is now incredibly significant.

For Chicago, I don't even know what to say, really... here's a tweet from one of Whitewater's players:

@d3tennis at 6 singles..The guy swore at the uww player.. Walked off the court at 2 0. Proceeded to break a racket and swear at his coach.


This is the second time something like this has happened in the last two calendar years. I have a hard time imagining someone just walking out on their teammates like that, but it happened. They think they can beat anyone just because they are insanely talented, but tennis has a lot to do with desire, which I guess is something Chicago just doesn't have. I guess they enjoy their crappy reputation, but it's not helping them at all. We'll see what they do at Indoors, I guess. Somehow, I doubt they'll beat Wash U again.


Incidentally, I had a horrible weekend, prediction-wise... again. But I'm gonna keep trying. I'm new at this. The original D3 is all-wise and all-powerful, picking Whitman and W-W, but even he is having a hard time keeping up with all these upsets (Case and Zoo). Fun times to follow DIII tennis.


Formatting issues, I'll fix them later

Saturday Recap

Tyler Carey (Fr.)

Sorry, but this post will not include the Case/Depauw match because it's not over yet (at least, the scores aren't available), and I won't be able to post later (Saturday night!). In all honesty, that match is probably over by now. Case lost to Ferris State, and that just doesn't sounds like a team that's about to beat Depauw to me.

Mary Washington Invitational


The four matches in the Mary Washington Invitational this morning went pretty much exactly how the original D3 predicted, though I'm going to take solace in getting 3 out of 4 right. Whitman beat Rhodes with a really gutsy singles performance, especially from Jeff Tolman. With the match tied 2-2, and his opponent serving for the match, he broke-held-broke for the match to swing the momentum in Whitman's favor. In the afternoon, Whitman gutted out another win against Kalamazoo. Northam's last text has them up 5-3 with #6 singles in a third set. My verdict on Whitman remains the same: long on heart, short on talent.

Unfortunately for the Squirrels, Mary Washington looked fantastic today. They absolutely rolled both Rhodes and Kalamazoo, sweeping doubles in both matches to pretty much eliminate any doubt about the outcome early on. Interestingly, they lost at #2 singles in both matches. I don't know if that's significant at all, but Nate Eddy actually didn't play 2 against MWU, so you can't say that's a stack. Regardless, Mary Washington's season is off to a promising start, and I think they are the clear favorite going into tomorrow.

The flip side of these results is that both Rhodes and Kalamazoo desperately need a win tomorrow. A loss for the Lynx would probably drop them out of the rankings, with their only other matches against ranked teams being Emory (unwinnable), Tyler (a win might not be enough to get them in the top 30), and a potential conference final match against Trinity (probably unwinnable). Meanwhile, Kalamazoo has had some great battles this year, but they've come out on the wrong end of all of them. I wonder if something is wrong with the spirit of the team, but one thing is almost certain: after this year, it's pretty much all over for the Hornets. Their top 3 are seniors, and they won't be able to compete without them. The results from today seem to indicate that Zoo is deeper that Rhodes, so I think the Lynx will only win if they can take the doubles, which I think they will do. I stick to my old predictions.

In other news...

#13 Hopkins def. Washington & Lee 7-2


This match says more about Washington & Lee than Hopkins. For Washington & Lee, it says they are ready to compete for a ranking spot this year. They competed extremely well at the top of the singles lineup with the Blue Jays, and only really got beat by their depth. I think they have a chance against anyone outside the top 15. Well done by the Generals. For Hopkins, all is says is, "We have 4 freshmen in our starting six! And they'll all pretty damn good!" The Blue Jays looked as good as we thought they would, and it just occurred to me that one way to shed the label as a choking team is to get a whole new team. I'll really be looking forward to their match against NCW in three weeks, which should be an absolute war.

Weekend Preview: February 18th-19th

Weekend Preview #2

Mary Washington's University Tennis Center, the site of last year's Indoors, hosts a slightly less exciting quad this weekend

Saturday


Washington & Lee @ #13 John's Hopkins

Washington & Lee beat Christopher Newport 5-4 over the weekend (in a match that went unnoticed by me), but that doesn't mean that they're ready to compete with the Blue Jays. Still, I'm interested in this match to see which of Hopkins' 39 freshmen will be playing in the starting lineup. I'll take Hop, 9-0, on their home courts, as they try to start off the season on the right foot, and strike some fear into the hearts of their opponents.

#19 Case Western @ #16 Depauw

This is the match of the weekend--at least in terms of NCAA tournament implications. Case had an extremely disappointing weekend, but it was pointed out to me that winning 2 out of 3 doubles against NCW looks a little better in light of the Bishops' victory over Kenyon. A loss would be devastating for Depauw, but it would essentially end Case's chances of making NCAAs. There's definitely a lot on the line for such an early season match. I'm tempted to take Case because they've already played some intense matches, but I think Depauw is slightly underrated, and, in the words of G.W. Bush, "Fool me once, shame on-- shame on you. Fool me-- you can't get fooled again." I'm gonna go with Depauw, 6-3.

Sunday


#11 Chicago vs. #21 Wisconsin-Whitewater

In my season preview of Whitewater, I said they had no chance to win this one. Then I saw the Maroon's box score against Kalamazoo this weekend, and I was reminded that they lost 2 of 3 doubles to Grinnell. I was hoping for Chicago's sake that their new coach would have instilled a little discipline into them, but I can see that they still like to mess around. If they're not serious, Whitewater could surprise them, but I still think they will do enough to get the W this time. I'll take Chicago, 6-3.

Mary Washington Quad


I wouldn't be surprised if none of these teams make it out of the weekend unbeaten, but I think that Mary Washington has the best chance. These four teams are probably more even than anyone would have anticipated when they scheduled it, and it reminds me of a best-of-five match between Nadal and Djokovic (not in level of tennis): even when one of them is clearly playing better than the other, it never ends in three sets. The losing player always has enough pride and grit to pull out at least one set, and it's so easy for the other to get complacent with the lead. That's how I see this weekend playing out.

In the Saturday morning matches, Mary Washington will come out excited and fresh for their first big match of the season and gut out a 6-3 win over Kalamazoo. Whoever wins the doubles will win the afternoon match between Whitman and Rhodes, but after Whitman's performance last weekend, I think they will come out energized and take advantage of Rhodes' lack of match toughness. Probably 5-4 either way in that one

In the afternoon matches, Mary Washington will take care of business with its biggest crowd of the weekend (I just don't see many college students showing up for those weekend morning matches). Rhodes has a shot at this one if they come out angry, but I don't think their lineup matches up well with MWU. Probably 7-2 again for MWU. Kalamazoo will be sick of losing close matches by the time the afternoon rolls around, and Whitman will either feel nervous about backing up their results or overly-confident. I think the Hornets win 2 of 3 doubles, and Whitman won't be able to recover in singles. 6-3 Kalamazoo.

In the Sunday matches, I just think MWU is better than Whitman, especially on their home courts. I also think Whitman will struggle their second day in the Eastern time zone. 6-3 MWU. In the final match, I think Rhodes will come out like an angry bear and beat 'Zoo. This prediction is more about heart than anything about these two teams' lineups. The Lynx will be determined not to leave Fredericksburg without a win.

Obviously, with teams this close is skill level, it could go any way, but I think it's likely that the end result will look something like:

MWU 3-0
Rhodes 1-2
Whitman 1-2
Kalamazoo 1-2

Another Big Upset

NCW Senior, Alexey Rumyantsev

http://athletics.kenyon.edu/x42122.xml

#12 NC-Wesleyan 5, #7 Kenyon 4


So much for that talk about Kenyon being a possible Final Four team. And so much for the talk about NC-Wesleyan sucking at doubles. I. Am. Always. Wrong.

Anyways, NC-Wesleyan looked good in doubles today. It seems like Kenyon was lucky to get the one point that they got. In singles, NCW got a fairly routine victory at #3 singles, but the Kenyon freshmen stepped up big. That must have left the match at 3-3, with three matches left. NCW showed once again that they are exceptionally deep, taking five and six. I think we can take away from this match that just because a team looks dominant one weekend, doesn't necessarily mean they always play that way.

Kenyon


I can't wait to see how the Lords respond to this loss at Indoors. It's gotta be heartbreaking to lose a match like that on your home courts, and I know that Kenyon is really confident this year. Will a loss like this shake their confidence? Or will they come out like a wounded bear? Burgin is playing like a savvy veteran, and could actually be one of the best players in the country. Their freshman are also playing like savvy veterans, which is a nice little bonus for the Lords. But so far, the bottom of their lineup is slightly suspect, and they need to shore that up before Indoors, or they could see their ranking start to slip in a hurry. We really have no idea how Depauw is going to be this year, but they have to come back with a vengeance so that everyone knows the conference championship is not in question.

NC-Wesleyan


This is an awesome win for the Battling Bishops, and they can expect to be in the top 10 when the rankings come out in March. They will have to back it up with a victory over JHU if they want to keep that ranking. I think it's pretty apparent that NCW's success against higher-ranked teams will be heavily dependent on their doubles play. Their singles lineup is so good that, if they can take two doubles matches, they can beat anyone in the country (except for Amherst and Claremont). Anyone know how a higher ranking could affect the shape of NCAA's this year?

In other news...

http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=228997&page=lr

#11 Chicago 5, Kalamazoo 4


What!? At least I picked the winner right this time. Jesus. And that score is with a doubles sweep from the Maroons. What are they doing!? I really have no words for this team. They might actually lose to Wisconsin-Whitewater. I never would have thought that was possible. They mystify me. For all I know, they could turn around and win two matches at Indoors. I'm going to reserve judgement on them.

Kalamazoo

The Hornets are definitely strong this year, and they are my new pick to beat Whitman next weekend. This group of seniors seems to be hungry to get their team back into the national rankings, and they have plenty of opportunities: Whitman, Rhodes, and Mary Washington next weekend; Whitewater the following weekend; and Trinity (CT) over Spring Break. I think they can get one. But again, we'll reassess after next weekend. I just had a total nostalgia moment. It's hard to believe the Hornets were ranked #17 and coming off a huge victory over Chicago about this time two years ago. How things have changed...

Weekend Preview: February 10-12

Weekend Preview #1

Kenyon's Jasper Tennis Center is the place to be for D3 tennis fans this weekend

Now that I've reached the #20 mark for the season previews, I thought it might be nice to take a little break and talk about matches that are actually happening. Before I get into it though, I'd like to spare a few words for the first "match between ranked teams" that took place last weekend. Kenyon crushed Kalamazoo 8-1, but the match was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Three singles matches went to three sets, and the Hornets were close to taking 2 out of 3 doubles. Kalamazoo might have a chance to get themselves back in the top 30 this year, but unfortunately for them, they will most likely fall out of the national scene after this season, as their top 3 are all seniors, and they've had three incredibly mediocre recruiting classes

Friday


#19 Case Western @ #7 Kenyon


I just did the Case preview, so anyone who read that knows that I really like them, but there's really no reason for me to think that they would beat Kenyon, especially on Kenyon's courts. Kenyon only lost one player, and brought in a much stronger recruiting class than Case. Still, I think this match could be closer than a lot of people might expect, and I'm going to predict a 6-3 Kenyon victory.

Saturday


#12 NC Wesleyan vs. #19 Case Western


I'm assuming this match is going to be played on Kenyon's courts, since NCW is playing Kenyon on Sunday. This match actually has some upset potential. Case plays strong doubles, NWC plays weak doubles, and NWC struggle at Indoors to start the season last year. I expect Case to take #2 doubles, and you would have to pick NWC at #1 doubles, but if Case can take either 1 or 3 doubles, the Battling Bishops could be in for a tough loss. We obviously don't know where the strengths in these teams' singles lineups are this year, but if Case can find two wins in the 1-5 range, I think they are probably stronger at #6 indoors. I might look stupid for this in a couple days, but I'm actually going to take Case in a 5-4 upset over NC Wesleyan. You gotta pick some upsets sometimes, right?

Washington and Lee @ #7 Kenyon


There isn't much reason to think this will be a close match, but we will get a look at whether Washington and Lee's freshmen are ready to propel them back into the top 30. Kenyon 8-1.

#6 Santa Cruz @ #29 Whitman


Cruz returns to Whitman for its semi-annual pre-Indoors trip, and I would expect this match to go a lot like the last two. Whitman will probably ride a wave of emotion to a doubles victory, but Cruz will end up winning 8-1. I will be looking at the box score, however, to see if Cruz is ready to rebound from their tough Fall season and perform well at nationals. Whitman, on the other hand, is a program on the decline, and just can't seem to get the kind of recruits other schools are getting.

Sunday


#12 NC Wesleyan @ #7 Kenyon


This match should be the first real test for the Lords, and, more excitingly, it's the first match between top 15 teams this season. If NC Wesleyan is for real this year, they will have beaten Case and will get loud in Jasper Tennis Center. Kenyon, on the other hand, will be well-prepared after matches with Case, W&L, and Kalamazoo, and I doubt they will give up a match on their home courts. NCW hasn't played strong doubles for the past two years, but if they can win one, it will be #1 doubles. One doubles win would be enough to keep the Bishops in it because their singles are traditionally strong, but I think Kenyon is just too deep. I think they will win 2 and 3 doubles, as well as 3 out of the 3-6 singles positions, plus one of the remaining three positions (1 dubs, 1 and 2 singles) for a 6-3 victory.

#11 Chicago @ Kalamazoo


We saw that Kalamazoo is probably stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates, but that doesn't mean they're strong enough to beat the Maroons. Their home courts probably give them one victory, and a flaky performance from one of the Chicago singles players might give them another, but I'm predicting Chicago 8-1 or 7-2.