Saturday Recap

Tyler Carey (Fr.)

Sorry, but this post will not include the Case/Depauw match because it's not over yet (at least, the scores aren't available), and I won't be able to post later (Saturday night!). In all honesty, that match is probably over by now. Case lost to Ferris State, and that just doesn't sounds like a team that's about to beat Depauw to me.

Mary Washington Invitational


The four matches in the Mary Washington Invitational this morning went pretty much exactly how the original D3 predicted, though I'm going to take solace in getting 3 out of 4 right. Whitman beat Rhodes with a really gutsy singles performance, especially from Jeff Tolman. With the match tied 2-2, and his opponent serving for the match, he broke-held-broke for the match to swing the momentum in Whitman's favor. In the afternoon, Whitman gutted out another win against Kalamazoo. Northam's last text has them up 5-3 with #6 singles in a third set. My verdict on Whitman remains the same: long on heart, short on talent.

Unfortunately for the Squirrels, Mary Washington looked fantastic today. They absolutely rolled both Rhodes and Kalamazoo, sweeping doubles in both matches to pretty much eliminate any doubt about the outcome early on. Interestingly, they lost at #2 singles in both matches. I don't know if that's significant at all, but Nate Eddy actually didn't play 2 against MWU, so you can't say that's a stack. Regardless, Mary Washington's season is off to a promising start, and I think they are the clear favorite going into tomorrow.

The flip side of these results is that both Rhodes and Kalamazoo desperately need a win tomorrow. A loss for the Lynx would probably drop them out of the rankings, with their only other matches against ranked teams being Emory (unwinnable), Tyler (a win might not be enough to get them in the top 30), and a potential conference final match against Trinity (probably unwinnable). Meanwhile, Kalamazoo has had some great battles this year, but they've come out on the wrong end of all of them. I wonder if something is wrong with the spirit of the team, but one thing is almost certain: after this year, it's pretty much all over for the Hornets. Their top 3 are seniors, and they won't be able to compete without them. The results from today seem to indicate that Zoo is deeper that Rhodes, so I think the Lynx will only win if they can take the doubles, which I think they will do. I stick to my old predictions.

In other news...

#13 Hopkins def. Washington & Lee 7-2


This match says more about Washington & Lee than Hopkins. For Washington & Lee, it says they are ready to compete for a ranking spot this year. They competed extremely well at the top of the singles lineup with the Blue Jays, and only really got beat by their depth. I think they have a chance against anyone outside the top 15. Well done by the Generals. For Hopkins, all is says is, "We have 4 freshmen in our starting six! And they'll all pretty damn good!" The Blue Jays looked as good as we thought they would, and it just occurred to me that one way to shed the label as a choking team is to get a whole new team. I'll really be looking forward to their match against NCW in three weeks, which should be an absolute war.

Weekend Preview: February 18th-19th

Weekend Preview #2

Mary Washington's University Tennis Center, the site of last year's Indoors, hosts a slightly less exciting quad this weekend

Saturday


Washington & Lee @ #13 John's Hopkins

Washington & Lee beat Christopher Newport 5-4 over the weekend (in a match that went unnoticed by me), but that doesn't mean that they're ready to compete with the Blue Jays. Still, I'm interested in this match to see which of Hopkins' 39 freshmen will be playing in the starting lineup. I'll take Hop, 9-0, on their home courts, as they try to start off the season on the right foot, and strike some fear into the hearts of their opponents.

#19 Case Western @ #16 Depauw

This is the match of the weekend--at least in terms of NCAA tournament implications. Case had an extremely disappointing weekend, but it was pointed out to me that winning 2 out of 3 doubles against NCW looks a little better in light of the Bishops' victory over Kenyon. A loss would be devastating for Depauw, but it would essentially end Case's chances of making NCAAs. There's definitely a lot on the line for such an early season match. I'm tempted to take Case because they've already played some intense matches, but I think Depauw is slightly underrated, and, in the words of G.W. Bush, "Fool me once, shame on-- shame on you. Fool me-- you can't get fooled again." I'm gonna go with Depauw, 6-3.

Sunday


#11 Chicago vs. #21 Wisconsin-Whitewater

In my season preview of Whitewater, I said they had no chance to win this one. Then I saw the Maroon's box score against Kalamazoo this weekend, and I was reminded that they lost 2 of 3 doubles to Grinnell. I was hoping for Chicago's sake that their new coach would have instilled a little discipline into them, but I can see that they still like to mess around. If they're not serious, Whitewater could surprise them, but I still think they will do enough to get the W this time. I'll take Chicago, 6-3.

Mary Washington Quad


I wouldn't be surprised if none of these teams make it out of the weekend unbeaten, but I think that Mary Washington has the best chance. These four teams are probably more even than anyone would have anticipated when they scheduled it, and it reminds me of a best-of-five match between Nadal and Djokovic (not in level of tennis): even when one of them is clearly playing better than the other, it never ends in three sets. The losing player always has enough pride and grit to pull out at least one set, and it's so easy for the other to get complacent with the lead. That's how I see this weekend playing out.

In the Saturday morning matches, Mary Washington will come out excited and fresh for their first big match of the season and gut out a 6-3 win over Kalamazoo. Whoever wins the doubles will win the afternoon match between Whitman and Rhodes, but after Whitman's performance last weekend, I think they will come out energized and take advantage of Rhodes' lack of match toughness. Probably 5-4 either way in that one

In the afternoon matches, Mary Washington will take care of business with its biggest crowd of the weekend (I just don't see many college students showing up for those weekend morning matches). Rhodes has a shot at this one if they come out angry, but I don't think their lineup matches up well with MWU. Probably 7-2 again for MWU. Kalamazoo will be sick of losing close matches by the time the afternoon rolls around, and Whitman will either feel nervous about backing up their results or overly-confident. I think the Hornets win 2 of 3 doubles, and Whitman won't be able to recover in singles. 6-3 Kalamazoo.

In the Sunday matches, I just think MWU is better than Whitman, especially on their home courts. I also think Whitman will struggle their second day in the Eastern time zone. 6-3 MWU. In the final match, I think Rhodes will come out like an angry bear and beat 'Zoo. This prediction is more about heart than anything about these two teams' lineups. The Lynx will be determined not to leave Fredericksburg without a win.

Obviously, with teams this close is skill level, it could go any way, but I think it's likely that the end result will look something like:

MWU 3-0
Rhodes 1-2
Whitman 1-2
Kalamazoo 1-2

Season Preview #13: Johns Hopkins

#13 Johns Hopkins

Andy Hersh

General Discussion


Last year, Hopkins looked like a top 10 team on paper, but they never put it all together (partially because they only had a few chances against top-ranked teams). This year, they look absolutely ridiculous on paper, but everyone will be watching to see if they fall apart in May again. The Blue Jays return 4 starters from last year's Sweet Sixteen team, and they add a recruiting class that would make a pretty solid Division I team. We might have to wait a year or two before this recruiting class puts Hopkins in the national championship picture, but if one or two of these recruits are good enough to significantly improve the singles lineup, we can expect to see these guys cracking the top 10 this year pretty easily. I wonder how the returning players will respond to having younger players challenging them for their spots. Best case scenario: the freshmen push the upperclassmen to knew heights, and the Blue Jays find themselves in the top 5 at the end of the year.

Where They'll Win


Hopkins played so few significant matches last year that it's difficult to say where they were strong and where they were weak. Add in the new freshmen, and we have almost no idea what the Jays' lineup will look like this year. Against Amherst this Fall, four of the freshmen were in the singles lineup. The match was competetive, and they Blue Jays managed to win some matches at the bottom of the singles lineup. Amherst was missing 3 of its top 4 players, but that's still an impressive feat. Accordingly, I think we can expect depth to be Hopkins' strength

Where They'll Lose


Hersh had a great Fall, finishing 4th in Mobile and taking a set of Fritz in their dual match with Amherst, but whether he can consistently beat the #1's from other top schools remains to be seen. Still, I would not say that the Blue Jays are weak at the top of their singles lineup. Last year, they played extremely close with Pottish-Goodwin-Egan and won at #2 and #3 against NCW. I also wouldn't say doubles is a weakness. Though they got swept by Williams, they actually won two out of three doubles matches in their other two D3 losses last year. (I don't know if I can get away with this or not, but I'm saying it anyways) With Hopkins, it's not so much "Where they'll lose" but "When they'll lose." Last two years, they laid an egg in the Sweet Sixteen. Maybe the best advice for beating Hopkins is to play them in NCAAs...

Schedule Analysis


Hopkins didn't play very many matches against schools ranked above or near them last year, and that might be part of the reason they didn't play very well in NCAAs. Maybe they weren't used to the pressure. That shouldn't be a problem this year. They play all the same schools they played last year (Emory, CMU, NCW, Bates), but they add to that three invaluable matches in the Stag-Hen. I think it will be good for them to play big matches against big teams on a big stage in the tournament setting. They might struggle in the Stag-Hen because of weather/time zone/freshman growing pains, but it will pay off in the long run. The match I'm really looking forward too, ironically, is their second match of the season. In the last two years, the Blue Jays have suffered painful losses to NCW, so they will be extremely hungry to beat them this year, especially in Baltimore. If the Jays can win that one, I think it sets the tone for an incredible season that will land them in the top 10.

Prediction


I think the Blue Jays will start off the season with an emotional victory over NCW, but then struggle in the Stag-Hen. Despite that, I think this is the year they finally make the Elite Eight, but I don't think they'll go any further than that. It will take a year or two for these freshmen to realize their full potential, and with the commits Hopkins already has for next year, the Blue Jays will be competing for a national championship very soon.