Weekend (Non-Indoors) Predictions

Carnegie Mellon's Vinit Palayekar

There are some matchups happening this weekend that are worthy of recognition, but once Indoors starts, I will probably not pay attention to anything else. Here are my predictions for those matches:

Saturday


#21 Wisconsin-Whitewater @ Kalamazoo


Kalamazoo has proven that they are tough, especially on their home courts, but there's a really safe way to view this match: Whitewater beat Chicago 5-4. Kalamazoo lost to Chicago 5-4. Whitewater swept Chicago in doubles. Chicago swept Kalamazoo in doubles. I think these two teams will end up splitting the singles, but Whitewater has been really good in doubles and Kalamazoo has been atrocious. Unless something has changed drastically in the way the Hornets play doubles in the last week, I have to take the Warhawks in this one. 6-3.

#17 Carnegie Mellon vs. Luther


Luther got demolished by Whitewater two weeks ago. Sure, Whitewater is especially good this year, and CMU might be in for a down year, but I just can't pick the upset in this one. Luther apparently has two good singles players, but if they can't win in doubles, they have no chance. This is the first look we'll have at CMU this year, but until they prove that they're especially bad this year, I'll have to go with the Tartans by a score of 7-2.

#24 Brandeis @ #15 Redlands


Redlands starts its D3 schedule tomorrow against Bates, but I think it's safe to say that Bates is significantly better than Brandeis this year after the Judges' loss to Oxy. The only way I see this match being close is if the Bulldogs completely let down after a big win tomorrow. Again, Redlands have looked good this year so far, but they are prone to weird performances. Plus, the Judges will definitely be acclimated by the time they play Redlands. I think Brandeis will play its best match of the trip against Redlands but still lose 8-1.

Luther @ #16 Depauw


I consider CMU and Depauw to be a lot alike this year. Both teams competing for a Pool C bid and flying a little bit below the radar. The difference is that Depauw now has a significant blemish on its record already, so they have to play balls-to-the-wall for the rest of the season if they want to make the tournament. I think they will eventually have to take their foot off the gas, but there's no way that happens in their first big match after the upset. Depauw, 8-1.

#26 Bates @ #5 CMS


Bates, quite simply, has no chance to win this match. It's scary to me that the Stags can use teams ranked in the 20's as warm ups, but they have certainly have a well-planned schedule this year. 9-0 Claremont.

Sunday


#17 Carnegie Mellon @ #16 Depauw


If you ignore the state of Minnesota, this is the match of the weekend. After being upset by Case last weekend, Depauw absolutely cannot afford to lose this match, but the Tartans need it almost as bad. Losing to a Pool C competitor is always incredibly damaging. Given Chicago's start, Pool C looks a little bit more open to both of these teams, but neither can afford to lose this one. Depauw has the slight advantage of playing on their home courts, but that didn't help them last weekend. CMU, however, hasn't played a significant DIII match yet. I think last weekend's experience ends up making the difference in this match, and Depauw wins a 5-4 thriller.

Weekly (Non-Indoors) Predictions

I thought I would just post a few predictions for the significant matches that will be taking place this week not in Minnesota. These aren't really well though out (because that has been working so well for me), and they're really just meant as a jumping off point for discussion, so please comment if you've got a good feel for any of these

#26 Bates @ #6 Cruz


I didn't really take much of a look at this match when I first saw it because Cruz losing to Bates on its home courts was pretty much unthinkable. But since they lost to the #29 team, I figured it's possible that they lose to the #26 team. The Slugs absolutely have to come out fired up for this one and improve on their doubles performance against Whitman. If they take at least a 2-1 lead, I think they cruise to a victory. On the other hand, Bates is stronger than their ranking indicates, and they should be especially strong in singles. If they manage to take a couple doubles matches, watch out. I can't pick against Cruz on their home courts, though, and match experience might be a factor this early in the season. I'll take the Slugs, 7-2.

Washington & Lee @ #15 Redlands


I think I said this before, but the Generals are stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates. They played and competed extremely well against Hopkins. If we're predicting that Hopkins will be a top 10 team this year, that should mean that W&L has a chance against Redlands, but the Generals were closest in doubles against the Blue Jays, and the Bulldogs have always been phenomenal at doubles. Redlands has also had some pretty impressive non-DIII results early this season, beating a couple top 15 NAIA teams. Redlands probably sweeps doubles and rolls in singles for a 8-1 victory.

#24 Brandeis @ #20 Cal Lu


On the ranking sheet, these two teams are only a couple rows apart, but Cal Lu is trending up and Brandeis is probably going the other way. The Judges also might have trouble adjusting to the California climate, and Cal Lu has improved depth and will be pumped up for their first home match. I will be looking at this box score intently to see exactly how much the Kingsmen have improved deep in their singles lineup. Until they prove that they can win there against ranked teams, I'm going to assume they will lose, but still pick them to repeat their 6-3 victory from last season.

Washington & Lee @ #5 CMS


I wonder if some of Settles' 4-stars that spend time on the bench will get in for this one. 9-0 Stags.

#26 Bates @ #15 Redlands


I think this match will be an absolute battle. As I mentioned, Bates is better than their ranking indicates, and by the time they get down to Redlands, they will have adjusted to the time zone and probably be pretty acclimated to the weather. Without Redlands' results from earlier this year, I would have had this as a possible upset. But since the Bulldogs have played well so far this season, I don't think I can pick against them on their home courts. I think Redlands will take 2 out of 3 dubs, and pull out a 5-4 victory in singles.

That's it for this post, I'll do another for Indoors, and a short one for the other weekend matches (because they matter too, just not as much for the national championship picture). I'm also going to try to take a look at singles and doubles rankings from the regions, but I think it might be a little early for that, and I might wait until after spring break. That's enough out of me. Hope everyone had a great President's Day!

Season Preview #5: CMS

#5 CMS


General Discussion


There are couple ways to look at CMS' 2010-2011. The first and most prominent way is to look at it and say, "Look, they blew 7 match points at NCAAs again, and this time they did it on their home courts. These guys are choke artists." The second and more optimistic way is to look at it and say, "Well, the finally managed to beat Santa Cruz at UCSC, so maybe they've gotten that monkey off their back. Also, we learned from Amherst that taking that final step from contender to champion can be a painful and arduous process." Personally, I would love to say that the Stags are choke artists, but I'm more inclined to take the second route. This team took a couple steps forward last year, and this might be the year they win the national championship. They return perhaps the best 1-2-3 punch in the country in Lane, Erani, and Johnson, and while they'll miss the rock solid performances of Wu and Brockett, something tells me they'll get over it. That "something," in this case, is the cumulative Fall performance their Freshmen Wood, Marino, and (especially) Bernhardt. In addition to these new faces, they also return doubles specialists Pereverzin and Wei along with talented but underrated players like Chien and Cahill. This team is stacked. There's no doubt about it, but it's championship or bust for Settles' squad. Is this their year?

Where They'll Win


Lane has proven himself to be one of the best players in the nation. Erani proved himself to be one of the best players in the nation two years ago, and now he's going to play two or three. Johnson showed that he's also capable of beating anyone in the country (though less consistently). While Claremont definitely has phenomenal depth, they'll have to replace their old stalwarts with unproven talent. Until the freshman step in and prove that they can win (which I think they will), I'm going to have to say that the Stags are stronger at the top for now. Perhaps, as the year progresses, their depth will turn out to be their strength, but they say experience wins championships. It's true that CMS lost a lot of matches in the top positions early last year, but that was before Erani came back from his injury. At the end of the year they did very well at the top against P-P, Cal Lu, UCSC, and Williams.

Where They'll Lose


Because they only lost three D3 matches last year, it's hard to say where the Stags are vulnerable, but I think the best way to beat CMS is by using the Santa Cruz formula from the past decade. Jump on them in doubles, and find a way to win a few singles matches. That's how Emory and Williams beat them, at least. It's really hard to say how the freshmen will fit into CMS' doubles lineup, but the Stags might actually be relatively weak in doubles this year. They lost Wu, who was probably their best doubles player, and it seems like they've always had a little bit of trouble coming up with cohesive doubles teams. Maybe it's because their roster is filled with California grinders (hence two guys from Oregon being two of their best doubles players), but that's just speculation. Regardless, if your name isn't Amherst and you want to beat CMS, you will have to beat them in doubles. (That probably sounds familiar, but sweeping doubles is basically the only way for a lesser team to pull off a big upset. Remember Cal Lu from two years ago? I do).

Schedule Analysis


Well, Claremont has a great schedule, as always, and they hardly have to leave their driveway. One of their most interesting matches to me, however, is their road match against Santa Cruz. Can they prove their superiority by beating them in SC twice in a row? If so, they could establish their own little California dynasty.