Indoors Predictions

The Swanson Tennis Center welcomes Indoors back to its bubbly interior this weekend

#2 Emory vs. Gustavus Adolphus


It's good for the Gusties to play matches like this, but, honestly, they don't have any chance. Gustavus has a couple good players, but they are no match for Pottish/Goodwin, and Emory is by far the deeper team. Goodwin hasn't been playing so far this year, so he might be injured, but I think the Eagles will sweep the singles with or without him. Gustavus was able to win a point in each of their matches last time they hosted, and if they're going to get one in this one, they're going to have to do it in doubles. I don't see that happening, and I think Emory will win 9-0

#3 Wash U vs. #11 University of Chicago


Wash U beat the #19 ranked team in DII last week, so it looks like they will be as strong as ever this year. The box score indicates that they are incredibly deep, as they took 5 and 6 singles easily. I think we all know the story with Chicago by now. On paper, it seems like this match should be pretty even, and last year, it was. But history will not repeat itself at Indoors. The Maroons swept the Bears last year, but I think it will be the other way around this time. Wash U will come out energized and sweep the doubles. They will proceed to roll through singles. Chicago will pick up its lone win from Jan Stefanski, who always seems to win (and is probably playing way lower than he should be). Wash U, 8-1.

#6 Santa Cruz vs. #10 Trinity (TX)


The Slugs rebounded nicely today against Bates, and momentarily quenched some of the fatalistic rhetoric surrounding the program. Trinity has only played a handful of non-DIII matches so far, and it's hard to know where their strength is. I think this match will come down to the wire, as it did last year, but I think Cruz' experience with indoor tennis at Whitman will ultimately help them win this one. I think Cruz wins #3 doubles, Trinity wins #2 doubles, Cruz wins #1 singles, Trinity wins #3 singles, and Cruz takes 2 out of the 4-6 positions. Trinity probably has a slight edge at #1 doubles with the very experience Frey/DelaFuente , but the Rosner/Stanley doubles team is playing well. Santa Cruz will win if Koenig can find his form and beat Dela Fuente, which I think he will. Santa Cruz, 5-4.

#7 Kenyon vs. #8 Pomona-Pitzer


This is a very interesting matchup. The Lords are coming off a disappointing loss to NCW, so they should be hungry to win this one to prove that they are for real this year. P-P has never played at Indoors before, and I think it's probably a safe bet to say that their players won't be used to playing Indoor tennis at all. Also, when these two teams met last year, it was an absolute war. I like the Lords to come out on top in this one, 6-3. I think the Hens could take a 2-1 lead after doubles, but I think the Lords are probably stronger 4-6, and I think they will take two out of the top 3. I think Kenyon is better prepared to play this match inside, on a big stage, and that will ultimately be the difference. When they meet in the Stag-Hen, it will probably be a different story.

Season Preview #3: Wash U

#3 Wash U

General Discussion


It's always interesting to see how a prominent team responds to losing a couple star players. Wash U won't be any different this year. They lost their top two players in Stein and Woods, and conventional wisdom suggests that this should be a down year for the Bears. I'm not convinced. Adam Putterman performed remakably in the Fall tournament, beating Joey Fritz and Alex Lane on his way to a second place finish, so it doesn't seem like Wash U will be lacking a star at the top. They also have a talented coach, a deep roster, and a particularly good recruiting class, so I don't think this will be a down year at all. Getting back to the final four will be a challenge because they will likely have to get past an improved Kenyon team to do it, but I think it's possible, if not likely.

Where They'll Win


Looking at their results from last year, it's really difficult to say where these guys are the strongest. Sometimes, their stars pulled them through, but in their wins over Santa Cruz and Trinity in the quad, however, it was the middle of the singles lineup that pulled them back from doubles deficits. Will the middle of the lineup remain a strength as the 3-6 singles players shift up? Will their 5 and 6 spots take a hit? I think some of the new freshmen will step in capably at the bottom of the lineup, and the middle will still be the strength of this team as the 4, 5, and 6 players from last year will be playing with an extra year of experience. Overall, this team is equally strong from top to bottom, but opponents will be particularly hard-pressed to win in the middle.

Where They'll Lose


Wash U's one big loss last year to Chicago came courtesy of a doubles sweep. They also fell behind in doubles against Trinity, Kenyon, and Santa Cruz (the second time), so doubles has to be this team's weakness. Interestingly, they managed to take two out of three doubles against Emory at Indoors, and they swept Williams, so they are clearly capable of playing good doubles, which, by ranking, was their best win of the year. Accordingly, I think the Bears' success this season will be determined by how well they play doubles. They can probably win three singles matches against anyone in the country, so the best way to beat them is to jump on them in dubs. Finally, I wonder how Adam Putterman will respond to the pressures of playing #1 over the course of the whole season. It can be a grind playing against the other team's best player every single match, especially if you start to lose some close matches.

Schedule Analysis


Once again, the Bears will start of their D3 schedule with Indoors, and I've already said that I predict a finals for them in that tournament. Things will get really interesting when they play Chicago the next week. I'm sure they will be looking to avenge last season's regular season loss (even though they beat Chicago handily in UAAs), but they will probably be playing a very different Chicago team under the new coach. After that, they travel to California for Spring Break, where they have an interesting match against Bowdoin. They also have a measuring-stick match against Case Western, where we'll get to see how that team has progressed, and they finish up with UAA's and NCAA's.

Prediction


For the Bears: a second place finish at Indoors and UAAs, a cakewalk to the Elite Eight, and a surprising Elite Eight loss to an emerging team like Middlebury or JHU (that team has to make a run eventually, right?). I hate to go against proven winners, but I think this is the year they finally fail to make the Final Four.