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Friday, February 24, 2012
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Indoors Updates?/ Week's Results
If anyone who is going to be at Indoors this weekend is interested in writing some guest articles for the blog, please e-mail me. It would be great to have someone who can relay the dramatic moments, and I would love to keep the blog as up-to-date as possible. For instance, if someone saves 3 match points, serving at 4-5 in the third set, breaks the next game, and wins the match, that's something that cannot be captured by a box score. So please e-mail me if you're going to be there and have an interest in writing
As for results this week...
#6 Cruz def. #26 Bates 6-3
A huge bounce back match for Cruz as they prepare for Indoors, but they didn't answer all of the questions surrounding the team at the moment. What is up with Erich Koenig? And what is going on with the Nurenberg/Scandalis doubles team? Those are problems that need to be fixed before tomorrow.
#15 Redlands def. Washington & Lee 6-3
These two teams had a great battle at the top of the singles lineup, and this match is more proof that the Generals are pretty good this year. It also shows that the Bulldogs are back to their battling ways, and that they are extremely deep this year. I look forward to seeing more results from both of these teams.
#20 Cal Lu def. #24 Brandeis 7-2
I don't know whether to take this as a good sign or a bad sign for the Kingsmen. For one, they dominated a nationally ranked team, but they only did one match better than Occidental. Ballou lost his singles match, which needs to not happen if Cal Lu wants to try to repeat its 2010 success. The fact that Sousa is playing 6, however, bodes well for Cal Lu.
As for results this week...
#6 Cruz def. #26 Bates 6-3
A huge bounce back match for Cruz as they prepare for Indoors, but they didn't answer all of the questions surrounding the team at the moment. What is up with Erich Koenig? And what is going on with the Nurenberg/Scandalis doubles team? Those are problems that need to be fixed before tomorrow.
#15 Redlands def. Washington & Lee 6-3
These two teams had a great battle at the top of the singles lineup, and this match is more proof that the Generals are pretty good this year. It also shows that the Bulldogs are back to their battling ways, and that they are extremely deep this year. I look forward to seeing more results from both of these teams.
#20 Cal Lu def. #24 Brandeis 7-2
I don't know whether to take this as a good sign or a bad sign for the Kingsmen. For one, they dominated a nationally ranked team, but they only did one match better than Occidental. Ballou lost his singles match, which needs to not happen if Cal Lu wants to try to repeat its 2010 success. The fact that Sousa is playing 6, however, bodes well for Cal Lu.
Weekend (Non-Indoors) Predictions
Carnegie Mellon's Vinit Palayekar
There are some matchups happening this weekend that are worthy of recognition, but once Indoors starts, I will probably not pay attention to anything else. Here are my predictions for those matches:
Saturday
#21 Wisconsin-Whitewater @ Kalamazoo
Kalamazoo has proven that they are tough, especially on their home courts, but there's a really safe way to view this match: Whitewater beat Chicago 5-4. Kalamazoo lost to Chicago 5-4. Whitewater swept Chicago in doubles. Chicago swept Kalamazoo in doubles. I think these two teams will end up splitting the singles, but Whitewater has been really good in doubles and Kalamazoo has been atrocious. Unless something has changed drastically in the way the Hornets play doubles in the last week, I have to take the Warhawks in this one. 6-3.
#17 Carnegie Mellon vs. Luther
Luther got demolished by Whitewater two weeks ago. Sure, Whitewater is especially good this year, and CMU might be in for a down year, but I just can't pick the upset in this one. Luther apparently has two good singles players, but if they can't win in doubles, they have no chance. This is the first look we'll have at CMU this year, but until they prove that they're especially bad this year, I'll have to go with the Tartans by a score of 7-2.
#24 Brandeis @ #15 Redlands
Redlands starts its D3 schedule tomorrow against Bates, but I think it's safe to say that Bates is significantly better than Brandeis this year after the Judges' loss to Oxy. The only way I see this match being close is if the Bulldogs completely let down after a big win tomorrow. Again, Redlands have looked good this year so far, but they are prone to weird performances. Plus, the Judges will definitely be acclimated by the time they play Redlands. I think Brandeis will play its best match of the trip against Redlands but still lose 8-1.
Luther @ #16 Depauw
I consider CMU and Depauw to be a lot alike this year. Both teams competing for a Pool C bid and flying a little bit below the radar. The difference is that Depauw now has a significant blemish on its record already, so they have to play balls-to-the-wall for the rest of the season if they want to make the tournament. I think they will eventually have to take their foot off the gas, but there's no way that happens in their first big match after the upset. Depauw, 8-1.
#26 Bates @ #5 CMS
Bates, quite simply, has no chance to win this match. It's scary to me that the Stags can use teams ranked in the 20's as warm ups, but they have certainly have a well-planned schedule this year. 9-0 Claremont.
Sunday
#17 Carnegie Mellon @ #16 Depauw
If you ignore the state of Minnesota, this is the match of the weekend. After being upset by Case last weekend, Depauw absolutely cannot afford to lose this match, but the Tartans need it almost as bad. Losing to a Pool C competitor is always incredibly damaging. Given Chicago's start, Pool C looks a little bit more open to both of these teams, but neither can afford to lose this one. Depauw has the slight advantage of playing on their home courts, but that didn't help them last weekend. CMU, however, hasn't played a significant DIII match yet. I think last weekend's experience ends up making the difference in this match, and Depauw wins a 5-4 thriller.
Season Preview #31: Denison
I decided just to pump out two season previews today to finish them off before the season really heats up this weekend.
#30.2 Denison
The Big Red had a ton of close calls last year against teams ranked in the teens, but they just couldn't pull any of them out. As it is, their only good win was a 6-3 triumph over Carnegie Mellon, unless you want to count a 6-3 win over Kalamazoo. Regardless, the Big Red are definitely a solid team: they return 5 of their singles starters from last year, and they bring in a massive recruiting class. In their first match this year, they had two freshmen in their singles lineup (and one more is competing for a spot), which shows that their depth will be much stronger this year. That's good for them, because, honestly, their depth was a little questionable last year.
Where They'll Win
Denison played great doubles last year. They took two out of three from Chicago, CMU, Depauw, and Mary Washington. The only comparable team they couldn't beat in doubles was Case Western, which we know is a great doubles team in its own respect. I would expect them to continue playing good doubles this year, as they return two of their doubles teams. They can only get better with the new additions. Additionally, the heart of their lineup was phenomenal last year. They won 3 and 4 singles against CMU, Case, and Mary Washington, which is saying a lot because they lost two of those matches. #4 seemed to be a particularly strong position, but that might have been an unintentional stack because Cawood is now playing #1 for them.
Where They'll Lose
Denison seemed to run out of good players after 5 last year because they couldn't win at 6 against good teams. Their #5 wasn't great, and he lost in all the matches that I just mentioned, but he also had some big wins. They just never won at #6 singles. That shouldn't be as much of a problem this year with all the new freshmen, and I would think that Denison should finish this year in the mid- or low twenties because of it. When they come up against higher-ranked teams, however, their depth will probably still be their weak point. If not, they will be hurt by the fact that they don't have a definite star, and will not be able to win at #1 singles when they play top 15 teams.
Schedule Analysis
The Big Red have a well-planned schedule this year. The matches they play against higher-ranked teams are winnable (for the most part), and they only have one match against a dangerous lower-ranked team (Kalamazoo). In terms of winnable matches, they have Case, CMU, and Depauw. In terms of unwinnable matches, they have Kenyon, which is tragic because they will need to beat Kenyon to make the NCAA tournament.
Prediction
Denison played Case, CMU, and Depauw last year; they came really close twice, and won once. If they really want to make a splash this year, they need to win all three, but I don't think that will happen. I think they can beat CMU again, and Depauw might be vulnerable, but I don't think they will beat Case. Case is basically a team that is better at what Denison is good at, which makes that one a poor matchup for the Big Red. Other than that, I think they will beat Kalamazoo, lose to Kenyon to finish the year in the 24-28 range.
#30.2 Denison
Casey Cempre (Fr.)
General DiscussionThe Big Red had a ton of close calls last year against teams ranked in the teens, but they just couldn't pull any of them out. As it is, their only good win was a 6-3 triumph over Carnegie Mellon, unless you want to count a 6-3 win over Kalamazoo. Regardless, the Big Red are definitely a solid team: they return 5 of their singles starters from last year, and they bring in a massive recruiting class. In their first match this year, they had two freshmen in their singles lineup (and one more is competing for a spot), which shows that their depth will be much stronger this year. That's good for them, because, honestly, their depth was a little questionable last year.
Where They'll Win
Denison played great doubles last year. They took two out of three from Chicago, CMU, Depauw, and Mary Washington. The only comparable team they couldn't beat in doubles was Case Western, which we know is a great doubles team in its own respect. I would expect them to continue playing good doubles this year, as they return two of their doubles teams. They can only get better with the new additions. Additionally, the heart of their lineup was phenomenal last year. They won 3 and 4 singles against CMU, Case, and Mary Washington, which is saying a lot because they lost two of those matches. #4 seemed to be a particularly strong position, but that might have been an unintentional stack because Cawood is now playing #1 for them.
Where They'll Lose
Denison seemed to run out of good players after 5 last year because they couldn't win at 6 against good teams. Their #5 wasn't great, and he lost in all the matches that I just mentioned, but he also had some big wins. They just never won at #6 singles. That shouldn't be as much of a problem this year with all the new freshmen, and I would think that Denison should finish this year in the mid- or low twenties because of it. When they come up against higher-ranked teams, however, their depth will probably still be their weak point. If not, they will be hurt by the fact that they don't have a definite star, and will not be able to win at #1 singles when they play top 15 teams.
Schedule Analysis
The Big Red have a well-planned schedule this year. The matches they play against higher-ranked teams are winnable (for the most part), and they only have one match against a dangerous lower-ranked team (Kalamazoo). In terms of winnable matches, they have Case, CMU, and Depauw. In terms of unwinnable matches, they have Kenyon, which is tragic because they will need to beat Kenyon to make the NCAA tournament.
Prediction
Denison played Case, CMU, and Depauw last year; they came really close twice, and won once. If they really want to make a splash this year, they need to win all three, but I don't think that will happen. I think they can beat CMU again, and Depauw might be vulnerable, but I don't think they will beat Case. Case is basically a team that is better at what Denison is good at, which makes that one a poor matchup for the Big Red. Other than that, I think they will beat Kalamazoo, lose to Kenyon to finish the year in the 24-28 range.
Season Preview #30: Skidmore
#30 Skidmore
I'm really not sure how Skidmore managed to keep a ranking based on last year's results. All they had was a pair of victories over Vassar. Don't get me wrong, Vassar is a good team, and Skidmore certainly is one of the 30 best teams in the country, but they probably don't deserve the ranking based solely on their results. The Thoroughbreds have put together consecutive solid recruiting classes now, but the results haven't come yet. This year could be the year they make a leap, but a lot depends on how they recover from the loss of the heart of their lineup (their 3 and 4 singles players). Luckily for them, they've brought in capable replacements in Hoblitzell and Ransom, so look for them to be better than they were last year.
Where They'll Win
Skidmore had good depth and a really strong #3 doubles team last year. I'm always suspicious of teams that consistently win at #3 doubles but not 1 and 2, but Skidmore probably just had three pretty even doubles teams. With regard to depth, they will probably be strong there again this year. Even though they lost the heart of their lineup, they had some pretty good players on their bench, and their new freshmen will definitely bolster the bottom of their lineup. I think Skidmore has the depth of a top 20 team, but they definitely had a hard time winning at the top of the singles ladder last year.
Where They'll Lose
Speaking of which, the Thoroughbreds return their top two singles players from last year, but they will have to play better this year if Skidmore wants to move up in the rankings. Loutsenko had a good Fall, and he's in the #1 spot now. A lot of Skidmore's success will depend on his play. He still probably isn't good enough to compete with the top players from the best teams, but Skidmore will be in good shape if he can beat a Guzick. Other than that, Skidmore had a little difficulty at #1 doubles last year, and they will need to shore that up, as well.
Schedule Analysis
Skidmore plays Vassar in a couple of days, and that is probably the most important regular season match for them. If they can't beat Vassar, they won't go to NCAAs, so I'll be paying particular attention to that box score. Other than that, Skidmore basically plays the entire top 10, and I have to wonder about that scheduling because they have very little chance of beating any of those teams. At best, they pick off a team who is unexpectedly weak this year, and they are well-prepared for their conference championship match against Vassar. At worst, they lose every match and become despirited.
Prediction
I don't think the Thoroughbreds will actually win any of those matches against top 10 teams, but they probably have a better team than Vassar. If the Guzicks can somehow will that team to victory this year, it will be a testament to their ability, but Vassar has half a team, and I think Skidmore will beat them with their depth.
Oliver Loutsenko (So.)
General DiscussionI'm really not sure how Skidmore managed to keep a ranking based on last year's results. All they had was a pair of victories over Vassar. Don't get me wrong, Vassar is a good team, and Skidmore certainly is one of the 30 best teams in the country, but they probably don't deserve the ranking based solely on their results. The Thoroughbreds have put together consecutive solid recruiting classes now, but the results haven't come yet. This year could be the year they make a leap, but a lot depends on how they recover from the loss of the heart of their lineup (their 3 and 4 singles players). Luckily for them, they've brought in capable replacements in Hoblitzell and Ransom, so look for them to be better than they were last year.
Where They'll Win
Skidmore had good depth and a really strong #3 doubles team last year. I'm always suspicious of teams that consistently win at #3 doubles but not 1 and 2, but Skidmore probably just had three pretty even doubles teams. With regard to depth, they will probably be strong there again this year. Even though they lost the heart of their lineup, they had some pretty good players on their bench, and their new freshmen will definitely bolster the bottom of their lineup. I think Skidmore has the depth of a top 20 team, but they definitely had a hard time winning at the top of the singles ladder last year.
Where They'll Lose
Speaking of which, the Thoroughbreds return their top two singles players from last year, but they will have to play better this year if Skidmore wants to move up in the rankings. Loutsenko had a good Fall, and he's in the #1 spot now. A lot of Skidmore's success will depend on his play. He still probably isn't good enough to compete with the top players from the best teams, but Skidmore will be in good shape if he can beat a Guzick. Other than that, Skidmore had a little difficulty at #1 doubles last year, and they will need to shore that up, as well.
Schedule Analysis
Skidmore plays Vassar in a couple of days, and that is probably the most important regular season match for them. If they can't beat Vassar, they won't go to NCAAs, so I'll be paying particular attention to that box score. Other than that, Skidmore basically plays the entire top 10, and I have to wonder about that scheduling because they have very little chance of beating any of those teams. At best, they pick off a team who is unexpectedly weak this year, and they are well-prepared for their conference championship match against Vassar. At worst, they lose every match and become despirited.
Prediction
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Indoors Predictions
The Swanson Tennis Center welcomes Indoors back to its bubbly interior this weekend
#2 Emory vs. Gustavus Adolphus
It's good for the Gusties to play matches like this, but, honestly, they don't have any chance. Gustavus has a couple good players, but they are no match for Pottish/Goodwin, and Emory is by far the deeper team. Goodwin hasn't been playing so far this year, so he might be injured, but I think the Eagles will sweep the singles with or without him. Gustavus was able to win a point in each of their matches last time they hosted, and if they're going to get one in this one, they're going to have to do it in doubles. I don't see that happening, and I think Emory will win 9-0
#3 Wash U vs. #11 University of Chicago
Wash U beat the #19 ranked team in DII last week, so it looks like they will be as strong as ever this year. The box score indicates that they are incredibly deep, as they took 5 and 6 singles easily. I think we all know the story with Chicago by now. On paper, it seems like this match should be pretty even, and last year, it was. But history will not repeat itself at Indoors. The Maroons swept the Bears last year, but I think it will be the other way around this time. Wash U will come out energized and sweep the doubles. They will proceed to roll through singles. Chicago will pick up its lone win from Jan Stefanski, who always seems to win (and is probably playing way lower than he should be). Wash U, 8-1.
#6 Santa Cruz vs. #10 Trinity (TX)
The Slugs rebounded nicely today against Bates, and momentarily quenched some of the fatalistic rhetoric surrounding the program. Trinity has only played a handful of non-DIII matches so far, and it's hard to know where their strength is. I think this match will come down to the wire, as it did last year, but I think Cruz' experience with indoor tennis at Whitman will ultimately help them win this one. I think Cruz wins #3 doubles, Trinity wins #2 doubles, Cruz wins #1 singles, Trinity wins #3 singles, and Cruz takes 2 out of the 4-6 positions. Trinity probably has a slight edge at #1 doubles with the very experience Frey/DelaFuente , but the Rosner/Stanley doubles team is playing well. Santa Cruz will win if Koenig can find his form and beat Dela Fuente, which I think he will. Santa Cruz, 5-4.
#7 Kenyon vs. #8 Pomona-Pitzer
This is a very interesting matchup. The Lords are coming off a disappointing loss to NCW, so they should be hungry to win this one to prove that they are for real this year. P-P has never played at Indoors before, and I think it's probably a safe bet to say that their players won't be used to playing Indoor tennis at all. Also, when these two teams met last year, it was an absolute war. I like the Lords to come out on top in this one, 6-3. I think the Hens could take a 2-1 lead after doubles, but I think the Lords are probably stronger 4-6, and I think they will take two out of the top 3. I think Kenyon is better prepared to play this match inside, on a big stage, and that will ultimately be the difference. When they meet in the Stag-Hen, it will probably be a different story.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Season (P)review #29: Whitman
#29 Whitman
The Squirrels are already off to a dream season, and it couldn't be more obvious that I had no idea this was coming. They lost their #3 singles player and another doubles player from last season's team, and they only brought in two 2-stars. One of those 2-star freshmen is playing very well for them at #4, and somehow they're using basically the same players to make a much better team, kinda like Pomona last year. In my mind, Whitman and Whitewater are a lot alike. On paper, they have no chance to beat anyone in the top 25, but they've already beaten three this year, so that has to be attributed to development, coaching, and heart.
Where They'll Win
So far this year, the Squirrels have gotten contributions from every position. In their four matches against good DIII teams, every position is at least 2-2. Basically, however, they're playing the same brand of tennis they always have--only quite a bit better. They play really strong doubles and then find wins lower in their singles lineup. Last year, they won 2 out of 3 against Trinity in doubles, and this year, they've taken 2 out of 3 against Mary Washington and swept Cruz. Their box scores from this weekend indicate that they're still strong deep in the lineup, but what has really helped this team is the emergence of La Cava at #1. Last year, they couldn't buy wins from the top position, but La Cava's win over Wichlin shows that they can compete this year.
Where They'll Lose
In years past, Whitman has always had some definite weak spots in their lineup. Last year, it was #3 doubles and their top 2 singles spots. The Squirrels have definitely shored up their weaknesses, and they seem pretty solid from top to bottom this year. Accordingly, they are probably vulnerable wherever another team is strong. Santa Cruz is deep, and they took 4 and 5 from Whitman. Mary Washington is top-heavy, and they took 2 and 3.
Schedule Analysis
The reason I put quotes around the "p" in preview is because they've already played most of their big matches. They've already beaten Cruz, Rhodes, Kalamazoo, and Mary Washington, and the only tests they have left on their schedule are Whittier and Trinity (CT). After that, they just have to take care of their conference and be off to NCAAs.
Prediction
Whitman will probably jump into the top 15 in the next rankings, and if they hold onto that ranking, it would be an absolute travesty if they were sent to the California region. Whittier is better than their ranking, so they have to come to play in that one, but if they do, they should win. Their match against Trinity is really difficult to predict. If Whitman's season follows the same arc as 2010CalLu and 2011Pomona, they will lose that match. Also, a win over Whitman could actually help Trinity in Pool C now (depending on indirects), so the will be really pumped up. Regardless of the outcome of that match, Whitman should make a good #2 seed in the NCAAs, and I expect they will lose in the round of 16 and finish the year in the 13-18 range, a banner year for a "program in decline" (quoting myself. good call, me).
Andrew La Cava (So.)
General DiscussionThe Squirrels are already off to a dream season, and it couldn't be more obvious that I had no idea this was coming. They lost their #3 singles player and another doubles player from last season's team, and they only brought in two 2-stars. One of those 2-star freshmen is playing very well for them at #4, and somehow they're using basically the same players to make a much better team, kinda like Pomona last year. In my mind, Whitman and Whitewater are a lot alike. On paper, they have no chance to beat anyone in the top 25, but they've already beaten three this year, so that has to be attributed to development, coaching, and heart.
Where They'll Win
So far this year, the Squirrels have gotten contributions from every position. In their four matches against good DIII teams, every position is at least 2-2. Basically, however, they're playing the same brand of tennis they always have--only quite a bit better. They play really strong doubles and then find wins lower in their singles lineup. Last year, they won 2 out of 3 against Trinity in doubles, and this year, they've taken 2 out of 3 against Mary Washington and swept Cruz. Their box scores from this weekend indicate that they're still strong deep in the lineup, but what has really helped this team is the emergence of La Cava at #1. Last year, they couldn't buy wins from the top position, but La Cava's win over Wichlin shows that they can compete this year.
Where They'll Lose
In years past, Whitman has always had some definite weak spots in their lineup. Last year, it was #3 doubles and their top 2 singles spots. The Squirrels have definitely shored up their weaknesses, and they seem pretty solid from top to bottom this year. Accordingly, they are probably vulnerable wherever another team is strong. Santa Cruz is deep, and they took 4 and 5 from Whitman. Mary Washington is top-heavy, and they took 2 and 3.
Schedule Analysis
The reason I put quotes around the "p" in preview is because they've already played most of their big matches. They've already beaten Cruz, Rhodes, Kalamazoo, and Mary Washington, and the only tests they have left on their schedule are Whittier and Trinity (CT). After that, they just have to take care of their conference and be off to NCAAs.
Prediction
Whitman will probably jump into the top 15 in the next rankings, and if they hold onto that ranking, it would be an absolute travesty if they were sent to the California region. Whittier is better than their ranking, so they have to come to play in that one, but if they do, they should win. Their match against Trinity is really difficult to predict. If Whitman's season follows the same arc as 2010CalLu and 2011Pomona, they will lose that match. Also, a win over Whitman could actually help Trinity in Pool C now (depending on indirects), so the will be really pumped up. Regardless of the outcome of that match, Whitman should make a good #2 seed in the NCAAs, and I expect they will lose in the round of 16 and finish the year in the 13-18 range, a banner year for a "program in decline" (quoting myself. good call, me).
Monday, February 20, 2012
Oxy beats Brandeis
Occidental def. #24 Brandeis 7-2
I've always wondered why Oxy doesn't have a successful tennis program. They are a small, somewhat prestigious school in a strong conference in Southern California. This year, the coaching carrousel landed on Brian Newhall, who, apparently, has coached the tennis team in the past. Maybe he can bring these guys to prominence. I think this match was more the Judges being bad than the Tigers being good, though. I'm just going to pay more attention to Oxy for the rest of the year and amend my Cal Lu v. Brandeis prediction to 9-0 Kingsmen. Thanks to the tipster who brought this to my attention!
I've always wondered why Oxy doesn't have a successful tennis program. They are a small, somewhat prestigious school in a strong conference in Southern California. This year, the coaching carrousel landed on Brian Newhall, who, apparently, has coached the tennis team in the past. Maybe he can bring these guys to prominence. I think this match was more the Judges being bad than the Tigers being good, though. I'm just going to pay more attention to Oxy for the rest of the year and amend my Cal Lu v. Brandeis prediction to 9-0 Kingsmen. Thanks to the tipster who brought this to my attention!
Weekly (Non-Indoors) Predictions
I thought I would just post a few predictions for the significant matches that will be taking place this week not in Minnesota. These aren't really well though out (because that has been working so well for me), and they're really just meant as a jumping off point for discussion, so please comment if you've got a good feel for any of these
#26 Bates @ #6 Cruz
I didn't really take much of a look at this match when I first saw it because Cruz losing to Bates on its home courts was pretty much unthinkable. But since they lost to the #29 team, I figured it's possible that they lose to the #26 team. The Slugs absolutely have to come out fired up for this one and improve on their doubles performance against Whitman. If they take at least a 2-1 lead, I think they cruise to a victory. On the other hand, Bates is stronger than their ranking indicates, and they should be especially strong in singles. If they manage to take a couple doubles matches, watch out. I can't pick against Cruz on their home courts, though, and match experience might be a factor this early in the season. I'll take the Slugs, 7-2.
Washington & Lee @ #15 Redlands
I think I said this before, but the Generals are stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates. They played and competed extremely well against Hopkins. If we're predicting that Hopkins will be a top 10 team this year, that should mean that W&L has a chance against Redlands, but the Generals were closest in doubles against the Blue Jays, and the Bulldogs have always been phenomenal at doubles. Redlands has also had some pretty impressive non-DIII results early this season, beating a couple top 15 NAIA teams. Redlands probably sweeps doubles and rolls in singles for a 8-1 victory.
#24 Brandeis @ #20 Cal Lu
On the ranking sheet, these two teams are only a couple rows apart, but Cal Lu is trending up and Brandeis is probably going the other way. The Judges also might have trouble adjusting to the California climate, and Cal Lu has improved depth and will be pumped up for their first home match. I will be looking at this box score intently to see exactly how much the Kingsmen have improved deep in their singles lineup. Until they prove that they can win there against ranked teams, I'm going to assume they will lose, but still pick them to repeat their 6-3 victory from last season.
Washington & Lee @ #5 CMS
I wonder if some of Settles' 4-stars that spend time on the bench will get in for this one. 9-0 Stags.
#26 Bates @ #15 Redlands
I think this match will be an absolute battle. As I mentioned, Bates is better than their ranking indicates, and by the time they get down to Redlands, they will have adjusted to the time zone and probably be pretty acclimated to the weather. Without Redlands' results from earlier this year, I would have had this as a possible upset. But since the Bulldogs have played well so far this season, I don't think I can pick against them on their home courts. I think Redlands will take 2 out of 3 dubs, and pull out a 5-4 victory in singles.
That's it for this post, I'll do another for Indoors, and a short one for the other weekend matches (because they matter too, just not as much for the national championship picture). I'm also going to try to take a look at singles and doubles rankings from the regions, but I think it might be a little early for that, and I might wait until after spring break. That's enough out of me. Hope everyone had a great President's Day!
#26 Bates @ #6 Cruz
I didn't really take much of a look at this match when I first saw it because Cruz losing to Bates on its home courts was pretty much unthinkable. But since they lost to the #29 team, I figured it's possible that they lose to the #26 team. The Slugs absolutely have to come out fired up for this one and improve on their doubles performance against Whitman. If they take at least a 2-1 lead, I think they cruise to a victory. On the other hand, Bates is stronger than their ranking indicates, and they should be especially strong in singles. If they manage to take a couple doubles matches, watch out. I can't pick against Cruz on their home courts, though, and match experience might be a factor this early in the season. I'll take the Slugs, 7-2.
Washington & Lee @ #15 Redlands
I think I said this before, but the Generals are stronger than their lack-of-ranking indicates. They played and competed extremely well against Hopkins. If we're predicting that Hopkins will be a top 10 team this year, that should mean that W&L has a chance against Redlands, but the Generals were closest in doubles against the Blue Jays, and the Bulldogs have always been phenomenal at doubles. Redlands has also had some pretty impressive non-DIII results early this season, beating a couple top 15 NAIA teams. Redlands probably sweeps doubles and rolls in singles for a 8-1 victory.
#24 Brandeis @ #20 Cal Lu
On the ranking sheet, these two teams are only a couple rows apart, but Cal Lu is trending up and Brandeis is probably going the other way. The Judges also might have trouble adjusting to the California climate, and Cal Lu has improved depth and will be pumped up for their first home match. I will be looking at this box score intently to see exactly how much the Kingsmen have improved deep in their singles lineup. Until they prove that they can win there against ranked teams, I'm going to assume they will lose, but still pick them to repeat their 6-3 victory from last season.
Washington & Lee @ #5 CMS
I wonder if some of Settles' 4-stars that spend time on the bench will get in for this one. 9-0 Stags.
#26 Bates @ #15 Redlands
I think this match will be an absolute battle. As I mentioned, Bates is better than their ranking indicates, and by the time they get down to Redlands, they will have adjusted to the time zone and probably be pretty acclimated to the weather. Without Redlands' results from earlier this year, I would have had this as a possible upset. But since the Bulldogs have played well so far this season, I don't think I can pick against them on their home courts. I think Redlands will take 2 out of 3 dubs, and pull out a 5-4 victory in singles.
That's it for this post, I'll do another for Indoors, and a short one for the other weekend matches (because they matter too, just not as much for the national championship picture). I'm also going to try to take a look at singles and doubles rankings from the regions, but I think it might be a little early for that, and I might wait until after spring break. That's enough out of me. Hope everyone had a great President's Day!
Season Preview #28: Texas-Tyler
#28 Texas-Tyler
The Patriots were once a perennial top 20 team, but they've been clinging to their national ranking for the last couple years. They lost it briefly last year after losing to McMurray and Rhodes, but got it back and held onto it by the end of the year by beating Whitman. This year, however, I think they're going to drop pretty hard. They lost their top 3 players to graduation, and, while they brought in a decent recruiting class for a 20-30 ranked team, it's usually not good for a team to rely too much on freshmen. They're probably still good enough to win their conference and give some team a decently hard time in NCAAs (if they're not shipped off to California), but that's about it.
Where They'll Win
This preview is going to be both really short and really harsh, because they seem like they are by far the worst team in the top 30. Last year's team probably deserved the ranking, but graduation left this team in tatters, and I really don't think they can win anywhere. Just based on their results from last year, they were deeper than Cal Lu and Whitman, but that really doesn't mean anything if their 4 and 5 players have to move to 1 and 2. Still, if the new freshmen are about as good as Wright and Singer, they will probably be better deeper in the lineup than they will be at the top.
Where They'll Lose
The Patriots basically have no chance to win at the top two singles spots against a ranked team this year. Any team that has a solid 1 player can walk into the match knowing they have that spot pretty much locked up, and basically the only way a good team can lose to Tyler is if they come in totally flat and get swept in doubles. Again, I don't see that happening.
Schedule Analysis
The Patriots' play matches against Redlands and Cal Lu, but I think their big ones will be Rhodes and Whittier. Whittier isn't ranked, but they're on the rise, and Rhodes narrowly beat them next year. I'm sure the Patriots will want some revenge, but they probably don't have it in them to beat the Lynx this year, even if Rhodes isn't very deep. That match is probably their only chance to beat a ranked team, and there's no guarantee Rhodes will be ranked by the time they play.
Prediction
I think you can see this one coming. Tyler will get crushed by Redlands and Cal Lu, lose to Whittier and Rhodes, and drop completely out of the rankings. If they want to return, they will have to really develop these four freshman and start pulling in more recruiting classes like it. Tyler is a program with a considerable amount of tradition, so it would be a shame to see it fall by the wayside, but they might be another victim of the prestigious-liberal-arts DIII landscape.
Kevin Wright (Sr.)
General DiscussionThe Patriots were once a perennial top 20 team, but they've been clinging to their national ranking for the last couple years. They lost it briefly last year after losing to McMurray and Rhodes, but got it back and held onto it by the end of the year by beating Whitman. This year, however, I think they're going to drop pretty hard. They lost their top 3 players to graduation, and, while they brought in a decent recruiting class for a 20-30 ranked team, it's usually not good for a team to rely too much on freshmen. They're probably still good enough to win their conference and give some team a decently hard time in NCAAs (if they're not shipped off to California), but that's about it.
Where They'll Win
This preview is going to be both really short and really harsh, because they seem like they are by far the worst team in the top 30. Last year's team probably deserved the ranking, but graduation left this team in tatters, and I really don't think they can win anywhere. Just based on their results from last year, they were deeper than Cal Lu and Whitman, but that really doesn't mean anything if their 4 and 5 players have to move to 1 and 2. Still, if the new freshmen are about as good as Wright and Singer, they will probably be better deeper in the lineup than they will be at the top.
Where They'll Lose
The Patriots basically have no chance to win at the top two singles spots against a ranked team this year. Any team that has a solid 1 player can walk into the match knowing they have that spot pretty much locked up, and basically the only way a good team can lose to Tyler is if they come in totally flat and get swept in doubles. Again, I don't see that happening.
Schedule Analysis
The Patriots' play matches against Redlands and Cal Lu, but I think their big ones will be Rhodes and Whittier. Whittier isn't ranked, but they're on the rise, and Rhodes narrowly beat them next year. I'm sure the Patriots will want some revenge, but they probably don't have it in them to beat the Lynx this year, even if Rhodes isn't very deep. That match is probably their only chance to beat a ranked team, and there's no guarantee Rhodes will be ranked by the time they play.
Prediction
I think you can see this one coming. Tyler will get crushed by Redlands and Cal Lu, lose to Whittier and Rhodes, and drop completely out of the rankings. If they want to return, they will have to really develop these four freshman and start pulling in more recruiting classes like it. Tyler is a program with a considerable amount of tradition, so it would be a shame to see it fall by the wayside, but they might be another victim of the prestigious-liberal-arts DIII landscape.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Wild Weekend
Whitewater junior, Andrew Bayliss
Another crazy set of matches in the last 24 hours, and I'm not really sure how to cover them, so I'll just go chronologically.
#19 Case Western def. #16 Depauw 6-3
I couldn't have been more wrong about Case Western, but at least this time, the original D3 was with me. They played strong doubles, just like we knew they were capable of playing, but this time, they found a way to win three singles matches. These guys must be pretty tough to take two three setters in their fourth match of the weekend. This win saves their season, but in no way does it mean they will get a Pool C bid. Still, with Chicago's loss, it seems like they're extremely vulnerable, so all they have to do to get the bid is probably beat CMU and Chicago, which is possible. It's still a long shot, but it looks about 100 times more likely than 24 hours ago.
For Depauw, this loss is absolutely devastating. They could sneak into Pool C with wins over W-W and CMU if CMU gets got and beats Case, but in my mind, that's much less likely than them just beating Kenyon for the conference championship. Kenyon is still better, but anyone can get hot for one match. We'll see what happens next weekend for the Tigers (though that match will probably fly under the radar with Indoors)
Kalamazoo def. #23 Rhodes 5-4
This is actually a really interesting result. For one, Kalamazoo finally got a tight win, but from the start times of the two matches in Fredericksburg this morning, I'm guessing they started the match with singles. That means the match was already clinched by the time they went into doubles. I really think this helped Kalamazoo because, if they had been down 0-3 going into singles, it's probably much less likely that they win five of six singles. Regardless, the Hornets finally got their win, and that bodes well for them the rest of the season. They have winnable matches against Whitewater and Trinity left, and they will probably need to win one of those to finish the year in the national rankings.
Rhodes, on the other hand, will probably fall out of the national rankings, and they have little hope of returning. Their only other matches against ranked teams are against Tyler (which will probably fall out of the national rankings themselves) and a possible match with Trinity in the conference chamionship (which is probably unwinnable). The Lynx are still a good team, but they really needed a win this weekend, and they didn't get it.
#29 Whitman def. #22 Mary Washington
I've been pretty harsh on Whitman so far, but when you're wrong, you're wrong. On paper, they really have no business beating Mary Washington, but they found a way to win again today. D3 mentioned that the weekend was a total team effort, and it's true that they won at least one match from every position (a statistical unlikelihood over the course of three matches). They will be probably be rewarded for their play this weekend with a top 15 ranking, and they are now the biggest Cruz fans on the face of the planet. All they have left on their schedule are matches against an underrated Whittier team and Trinity (CT). They have to avoid to letdown if they want to stay away from the brutal California regional for sure. Short on talent, long on heart.
For Mary Washington, this match hurts, but it's not the end of the world. The big concern is that they looked so much better than Whitman yesterday. They have to be asking themselves how it all went wrong, and I have no idea. I know the Eagles are hoping to return to prominence, but they don't have as much to worry about with Salisbury anymore, so they pretty much have a ticket to NCAAs. Plus, they have a ton of matches left against ranked teams, so they'll have plenty of chances to get their ranking up. Next up for them is a California swing against Cal Lu, Pomona, and Redlands. If they can get a win there, it would be huge.
as good as those matches were, the match of the night goes to....
#21 Whitewater def. #11 Chicago 5-4
I was extremely harsh on Whitewater in the season preview, and I think I have to learn to stop paying so much attention to tennisrecruiting.net. The teams that are ranked with poor recruits are clearly up their for a reason, and Whitewater also has a ton of heart. This box score has the classic look of an upset: a doubles sweep followed by two gritty singles wins. The Warhawks have always played good doubles. Hopefully they don't have to rely on it so much in the future. Up next for Whitewater is Kalamazoo, a match I now think they will win. As a side note, the schedule on Whitewater's calendar doesn't include Depauw, but I think they're playing. This match is now incredibly significant.
For Chicago, I don't even know what to say, really... here's a tweet from one of Whitewater's players:
This is the second time something like this has happened in the last two calendar years. I have a hard time imagining someone just walking out on their teammates like that, but it happened. They think they can beat anyone just because they are insanely talented, but tennis has a lot to do with desire, which I guess is something Chicago just doesn't have. I guess they enjoy their crappy reputation, but it's not helping them at all. We'll see what they do at Indoors, I guess. Somehow, I doubt they'll beat Wash U again.
Incidentally, I had a horrible weekend, prediction-wise... again. But I'm gonna keep trying. I'm new at this. The original D3 is all-wise and all-powerful, picking Whitman and W-W, but even he is having a hard time keeping up with all these upsets (Case and Zoo). Fun times to follow DIII tennis.
Formatting issues, I'll fix them later
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Saturday Recap
Tyler Carey (Fr.)
Sorry, but this post will not include the Case/Depauw match because it's not over yet (at least, the scores aren't available), and I won't be able to post later (Saturday night!). In all honesty, that match is probably over by now. Case lost to Ferris State, and that just doesn't sounds like a team that's about to beat Depauw to me.
Mary Washington Invitational
The four matches in the Mary Washington Invitational this morning went pretty much exactly how the original D3 predicted, though I'm going to take solace in getting 3 out of 4 right. Whitman beat Rhodes with a really gutsy singles performance, especially from Jeff Tolman. With the match tied 2-2, and his opponent serving for the match, he broke-held-broke for the match to swing the momentum in Whitman's favor. In the afternoon, Whitman gutted out another win against Kalamazoo. Northam's last text has them up 5-3 with #6 singles in a third set. My verdict on Whitman remains the same: long on heart, short on talent.
Unfortunately for the Squirrels, Mary Washington looked fantastic today. They absolutely rolled both Rhodes and Kalamazoo, sweeping doubles in both matches to pretty much eliminate any doubt about the outcome early on. Interestingly, they lost at #2 singles in both matches. I don't know if that's significant at all, but Nate Eddy actually didn't play 2 against MWU, so you can't say that's a stack. Regardless, Mary Washington's season is off to a promising start, and I think they are the clear favorite going into tomorrow.
The flip side of these results is that both Rhodes and Kalamazoo desperately need a win tomorrow. A loss for the Lynx would probably drop them out of the rankings, with their only other matches against ranked teams being Emory (unwinnable), Tyler (a win might not be enough to get them in the top 30), and a potential conference final match against Trinity (probably unwinnable). Meanwhile, Kalamazoo has had some great battles this year, but they've come out on the wrong end of all of them. I wonder if something is wrong with the spirit of the team, but one thing is almost certain: after this year, it's pretty much all over for the Hornets. Their top 3 are seniors, and they won't be able to compete without them. The results from today seem to indicate that Zoo is deeper that Rhodes, so I think the Lynx will only win if they can take the doubles, which I think they will do. I stick to my old predictions.
In other news...
#13 Hopkins def. Washington & Lee 7-2
This match says more about Washington & Lee than Hopkins. For Washington & Lee, it says they are ready to compete for a ranking spot this year. They competed extremely well at the top of the singles lineup with the Blue Jays, and only really got beat by their depth. I think they have a chance against anyone outside the top 15. Well done by the Generals. For Hopkins, all is says is, "We have 4 freshmen in our starting six! And they'll all pretty damn good!" The Blue Jays looked as good as we thought they would, and it just occurred to me that one way to shed the label as a choking team is to get a whole new team. I'll really be looking forward to their match against NCW in three weeks, which should be an absolute war.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Season Preview #27: Tufts
#27 Tufts
The Jumbos came within inches of being ranked in the top 20 last year, with a big win over Trinity and a couple close losses to Bates and MIT. Unfortunately, they lost two or three of their starters from last year's team, and they didn't get much in terms of recruiting this year, so they will probably be down this year. The silver lining for Tufts is that their young players will get a ton of experience against good competition this year, which means they will probably look good for 2013 when they bring in a monster recruiting class. Still, this isn't a 2013 season preview; it's a 2012 season preview, and I'm sorry to say that this could be a tough season for the Jumbos.
Where They'll Win
Last year, Tufts had decent doubles and good depth. If they want to be successful this year, they're going to have to lean on that again, because they won't be able to win at the top of the lineup against the rest of the NESCAC. They swept Brandeis in doubles, and took two out of three from Trinity and MIT. They also won the bottom three singles positions against Bates (the only big match in which their doubles let them down), and their depth dominated in their big win against Trinity. If there's something positive to look at from losing their 1 and their 4 from last year, it's that they weren't really relying on wins from their 1. If they have good bench players, they could keep their ranking this year by winning with depth.
Where They'll Lose
The flip side of the coin is that Kai Victoria literally didn't win a single match at #1 singles last year. What are the chances Lutz does well moving up? This might be a team with six players that are all about the same skill level, but that doesn't bode well for the guys who end up playing at the top of the lineup. I think the Jumbos will really struggle to win at 1, 2, and 3 singles positions this year, especially in the NESCAC.
Schedule Analysis
Because of the NESCAC rules, Tufts' first match isn't until March 16th against Middlebury. Then they head to Hilton Head for matches against Carleton and Chicago, a trip that is simultaneously their best chance at a huge upset and their best chance to get upset. After that, they've got their normal smorgasbord of other NESCAC matches and their round robin with MIT and Brandeis.
Prediction
I think Tufts will have a rough year this year. They will probably grit their way to a victory over MIT, Brandeis, or Bates, but at the end of the year, they will probably drop out of the rankings. I think they will also lose to Carleton, who brought in a really strong recruiting class this year. Their best chance at an upset is Chicago, but if the Maroons start losing to the likes of Whitewater, they won't be ranked high enough for that to matter by the time they play.
Ben Barad (Jr.)
General DiscussionThe Jumbos came within inches of being ranked in the top 20 last year, with a big win over Trinity and a couple close losses to Bates and MIT. Unfortunately, they lost two or three of their starters from last year's team, and they didn't get much in terms of recruiting this year, so they will probably be down this year. The silver lining for Tufts is that their young players will get a ton of experience against good competition this year, which means they will probably look good for 2013 when they bring in a monster recruiting class. Still, this isn't a 2013 season preview; it's a 2012 season preview, and I'm sorry to say that this could be a tough season for the Jumbos.
Where They'll Win
Last year, Tufts had decent doubles and good depth. If they want to be successful this year, they're going to have to lean on that again, because they won't be able to win at the top of the lineup against the rest of the NESCAC. They swept Brandeis in doubles, and took two out of three from Trinity and MIT. They also won the bottom three singles positions against Bates (the only big match in which their doubles let them down), and their depth dominated in their big win against Trinity. If there's something positive to look at from losing their 1 and their 4 from last year, it's that they weren't really relying on wins from their 1. If they have good bench players, they could keep their ranking this year by winning with depth.
Where They'll Lose
The flip side of the coin is that Kai Victoria literally didn't win a single match at #1 singles last year. What are the chances Lutz does well moving up? This might be a team with six players that are all about the same skill level, but that doesn't bode well for the guys who end up playing at the top of the lineup. I think the Jumbos will really struggle to win at 1, 2, and 3 singles positions this year, especially in the NESCAC.
Schedule Analysis
Because of the NESCAC rules, Tufts' first match isn't until March 16th against Middlebury. Then they head to Hilton Head for matches against Carleton and Chicago, a trip that is simultaneously their best chance at a huge upset and their best chance to get upset. After that, they've got their normal smorgasbord of other NESCAC matches and their round robin with MIT and Brandeis.
Prediction
I think Tufts will have a rough year this year. They will probably grit their way to a victory over MIT, Brandeis, or Bates, but at the end of the year, they will probably drop out of the rankings. I think they will also lose to Carleton, who brought in a really strong recruiting class this year. Their best chance at an upset is Chicago, but if the Maroons start losing to the likes of Whitewater, they won't be ranked high enough for that to matter by the time they play.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Season Preview #26: Bates
#26 Bates
It must be really interesting for Bates to be the #26th ranked team in the nation, but still only be the 6th or 7th best team in the NESCAC. Maybe this is the year they will finally shake things up a little bit. Trinity doesn't look too strong, Bowdoin might have a hard time recovering from the loss of Sullivan, and Bates returns all of their singles starters from last year's team. They also brought in a solid recruiting class, so there's pretty much no way the Bobcats don't get better this year. The problem for them is that they are in the NESCAC, which means they basically have zero chance of making the NCAA tournament, but look for them to make some serious moves next year. After losing just one doubles player last year, they still only have one senior on their roster, and he only played #4 singles last year. Watch out.
Where They'll Win
It looks like Bates had a pretty significant drop-off after their top 3 singles players. Against ranked teams not in the top 10, they went 12-6 last year at 1, 2, and 3; whereas, they went 3-15 at 4, 5, and 6. That isn't necessarily good news for their 4, 5, and 6 singles players, but since they are bring back their top 3, it's pretty safe to say that they will be strong at those positions this year as well. With another year of experience, maybe they'll start getting wins against the top 10 also. (they went 1-17 in singles in three matches against top 10 teams last year).
Where They'll Lose
This is great because I basically don't have to write anything else. They went 3-24 against ranked teams a 4, 5 and 6 singles last year. That's not good. The Bobcats better hope that their depth players got significantly better. If not, they have absolutely no chance of fulfilling the prophecy of the anonymous poster on tennisd3 who somehow expected everyone to know that Berg beat half of Bowdoin's team in a men's open and predicted that Bates would finish 3rd in the NESCAC.
Schedule Analysis
They start off in five days with a quick California swing against Cruz, Redlands, and Claremont. Those matches seem a little early for a NESCAC school to me, but they should be really good for the Bobcats. They play at Middlebury the following week, and then play their first home match against MIT. Their schedule is absolutely stacked (13 matches against ranked teams), so I'm not going to get into all of it, but I think their most significant matches are the ones against Tufts, Trinity, and Bowdoin, as they will be most indicative of whether or not Bates is ready to move up in the NESCAC.
Prediction
Bates is better than last year, but not as good as they think they are. I would have said they would get swept in California, but after last weekend, I don't know anymore. (I still don't think they will win a match. Redlands has been playing great). I think they will go 2-1 in their round robin against Tufts/MIT/Brandeis, and I think their matches against Trinity and MWU are coin flips. Their best chance to move up in the rankings, however, will be either April 20th on the road against Bowdoin, or (if they can beat Trinity) in the NESCAC tournament. My guess is that they finish this year a little higher than they started last year-- in the 18-22 range.
Matt Bettles (Jr.)
General DiscussionIt must be really interesting for Bates to be the #26th ranked team in the nation, but still only be the 6th or 7th best team in the NESCAC. Maybe this is the year they will finally shake things up a little bit. Trinity doesn't look too strong, Bowdoin might have a hard time recovering from the loss of Sullivan, and Bates returns all of their singles starters from last year's team. They also brought in a solid recruiting class, so there's pretty much no way the Bobcats don't get better this year. The problem for them is that they are in the NESCAC, which means they basically have zero chance of making the NCAA tournament, but look for them to make some serious moves next year. After losing just one doubles player last year, they still only have one senior on their roster, and he only played #4 singles last year. Watch out.
Where They'll Win
It looks like Bates had a pretty significant drop-off after their top 3 singles players. Against ranked teams not in the top 10, they went 12-6 last year at 1, 2, and 3; whereas, they went 3-15 at 4, 5, and 6. That isn't necessarily good news for their 4, 5, and 6 singles players, but since they are bring back their top 3, it's pretty safe to say that they will be strong at those positions this year as well. With another year of experience, maybe they'll start getting wins against the top 10 also. (they went 1-17 in singles in three matches against top 10 teams last year).
Where They'll Lose
This is great because I basically don't have to write anything else. They went 3-24 against ranked teams a 4, 5 and 6 singles last year. That's not good. The Bobcats better hope that their depth players got significantly better. If not, they have absolutely no chance of fulfilling the prophecy of the anonymous poster on tennisd3 who somehow expected everyone to know that Berg beat half of Bowdoin's team in a men's open and predicted that Bates would finish 3rd in the NESCAC.
Schedule Analysis
They start off in five days with a quick California swing against Cruz, Redlands, and Claremont. Those matches seem a little early for a NESCAC school to me, but they should be really good for the Bobcats. They play at Middlebury the following week, and then play their first home match against MIT. Their schedule is absolutely stacked (13 matches against ranked teams), so I'm not going to get into all of it, but I think their most significant matches are the ones against Tufts, Trinity, and Bowdoin, as they will be most indicative of whether or not Bates is ready to move up in the NESCAC.
Prediction
Bates is better than last year, but not as good as they think they are. I would have said they would get swept in California, but after last weekend, I don't know anymore. (I still don't think they will win a match. Redlands has been playing great). I think they will go 2-1 in their round robin against Tufts/MIT/Brandeis, and I think their matches against Trinity and MWU are coin flips. Their best chance to move up in the rankings, however, will be either April 20th on the road against Bowdoin, or (if they can beat Trinity) in the NESCAC tournament. My guess is that they finish this year a little higher than they started last year-- in the 18-22 range.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Weekend Preview: February 18th-19th
Weekend Preview #2
Saturday
Washington & Lee @ #13 John's Hopkins
Washington & Lee beat Christopher Newport 5-4 over the weekend (in a match that went unnoticed by me), but that doesn't mean that they're ready to compete with the Blue Jays. Still, I'm interested in this match to see which of Hopkins' 39 freshmen will be playing in the starting lineup. I'll take Hop, 9-0, on their home courts, as they try to start off the season on the right foot, and strike some fear into the hearts of their opponents.
#19 Case Western @ #16 Depauw
This is the match of the weekend--at least in terms of NCAA tournament implications. Case had an extremely disappointing weekend, but it was pointed out to me that winning 2 out of 3 doubles against NCW looks a little better in light of the Bishops' victory over Kenyon. A loss would be devastating for Depauw, but it would essentially end Case's chances of making NCAAs. There's definitely a lot on the line for such an early season match. I'm tempted to take Case because they've already played some intense matches, but I think Depauw is slightly underrated, and, in the words of G.W. Bush, "Fool me once, shame on-- shame on you. Fool me-- you can't get fooled again." I'm gonna go with Depauw, 6-3.
Sunday
#11 Chicago vs. #21 Wisconsin-Whitewater
In my season preview of Whitewater, I said they had no chance to win this one. Then I saw the Maroon's box score against Kalamazoo this weekend, and I was reminded that they lost 2 of 3 doubles to Grinnell. I was hoping for Chicago's sake that their new coach would have instilled a little discipline into them, but I can see that they still like to mess around. If they're not serious, Whitewater could surprise them, but I still think they will do enough to get the W this time. I'll take Chicago, 6-3.
Mary Washington Quad
I wouldn't be surprised if none of these teams make it out of the weekend unbeaten, but I think that Mary Washington has the best chance. These four teams are probably more even than anyone would have anticipated when they scheduled it, and it reminds me of a best-of-five match between Nadal and Djokovic (not in level of tennis): even when one of them is clearly playing better than the other, it never ends in three sets. The losing player always has enough pride and grit to pull out at least one set, and it's so easy for the other to get complacent with the lead. That's how I see this weekend playing out.
In the Saturday morning matches, Mary Washington will come out excited and fresh for their first big match of the season and gut out a 6-3 win over Kalamazoo. Whoever wins the doubles will win the afternoon match between Whitman and Rhodes, but after Whitman's performance last weekend, I think they will come out energized and take advantage of Rhodes' lack of match toughness. Probably 5-4 either way in that one
In the afternoon matches, Mary Washington will take care of business with its biggest crowd of the weekend (I just don't see many college students showing up for those weekend morning matches). Rhodes has a shot at this one if they come out angry, but I don't think their lineup matches up well with MWU. Probably 7-2 again for MWU. Kalamazoo will be sick of losing close matches by the time the afternoon rolls around, and Whitman will either feel nervous about backing up their results or overly-confident. I think the Hornets win 2 of 3 doubles, and Whitman won't be able to recover in singles. 6-3 Kalamazoo.
In the Sunday matches, I just think MWU is better than Whitman, especially on their home courts. I also think Whitman will struggle their second day in the Eastern time zone. 6-3 MWU. In the final match, I think Rhodes will come out like an angry bear and beat 'Zoo. This prediction is more about heart than anything about these two teams' lineups. The Lynx will be determined not to leave Fredericksburg without a win.
Obviously, with teams this close is skill level, it could go any way, but I think it's likely that the end result will look something like:
MWU 3-0
Rhodes 1-2
Whitman 1-2
Kalamazoo 1-2
Mary Washington's University Tennis Center, the site of last year's Indoors, hosts a slightly less exciting quad this weekend
Washington & Lee @ #13 John's Hopkins
Washington & Lee beat Christopher Newport 5-4 over the weekend (in a match that went unnoticed by me), but that doesn't mean that they're ready to compete with the Blue Jays. Still, I'm interested in this match to see which of Hopkins' 39 freshmen will be playing in the starting lineup. I'll take Hop, 9-0, on their home courts, as they try to start off the season on the right foot, and strike some fear into the hearts of their opponents.
#19 Case Western @ #16 Depauw
This is the match of the weekend--at least in terms of NCAA tournament implications. Case had an extremely disappointing weekend, but it was pointed out to me that winning 2 out of 3 doubles against NCW looks a little better in light of the Bishops' victory over Kenyon. A loss would be devastating for Depauw, but it would essentially end Case's chances of making NCAAs. There's definitely a lot on the line for such an early season match. I'm tempted to take Case because they've already played some intense matches, but I think Depauw is slightly underrated, and, in the words of G.W. Bush, "Fool me once, shame on-- shame on you. Fool me-- you can't get fooled again." I'm gonna go with Depauw, 6-3.
Sunday
#11 Chicago vs. #21 Wisconsin-Whitewater
In my season preview of Whitewater, I said they had no chance to win this one. Then I saw the Maroon's box score against Kalamazoo this weekend, and I was reminded that they lost 2 of 3 doubles to Grinnell. I was hoping for Chicago's sake that their new coach would have instilled a little discipline into them, but I can see that they still like to mess around. If they're not serious, Whitewater could surprise them, but I still think they will do enough to get the W this time. I'll take Chicago, 6-3.
Mary Washington Quad
I wouldn't be surprised if none of these teams make it out of the weekend unbeaten, but I think that Mary Washington has the best chance. These four teams are probably more even than anyone would have anticipated when they scheduled it, and it reminds me of a best-of-five match between Nadal and Djokovic (not in level of tennis): even when one of them is clearly playing better than the other, it never ends in three sets. The losing player always has enough pride and grit to pull out at least one set, and it's so easy for the other to get complacent with the lead. That's how I see this weekend playing out.
In the Saturday morning matches, Mary Washington will come out excited and fresh for their first big match of the season and gut out a 6-3 win over Kalamazoo. Whoever wins the doubles will win the afternoon match between Whitman and Rhodes, but after Whitman's performance last weekend, I think they will come out energized and take advantage of Rhodes' lack of match toughness. Probably 5-4 either way in that one
In the afternoon matches, Mary Washington will take care of business with its biggest crowd of the weekend (I just don't see many college students showing up for those weekend morning matches). Rhodes has a shot at this one if they come out angry, but I don't think their lineup matches up well with MWU. Probably 7-2 again for MWU. Kalamazoo will be sick of losing close matches by the time the afternoon rolls around, and Whitman will either feel nervous about backing up their results or overly-confident. I think the Hornets win 2 of 3 doubles, and Whitman won't be able to recover in singles. 6-3 Kalamazoo.
In the Sunday matches, I just think MWU is better than Whitman, especially on their home courts. I also think Whitman will struggle their second day in the Eastern time zone. 6-3 MWU. In the final match, I think Rhodes will come out like an angry bear and beat 'Zoo. This prediction is more about heart than anything about these two teams' lineups. The Lynx will be determined not to leave Fredericksburg without a win.
Obviously, with teams this close is skill level, it could go any way, but I think it's likely that the end result will look something like:
MWU 3-0
Rhodes 1-2
Whitman 1-2
Kalamazoo 1-2
Season Preview #25: MIT
#25 MIT
General Discussion
MIT, of course, is a school best known for its tennis team, and boy do they have a good one. They have brought in a ton of talent in the last couple years, and they only have one senior on their roster. The lone senior didn't even start last year, so I think it's safe to say that this team's best seasons are still in front of them. The only problem for the Engineers is that they play an extremely weak schedule. They have played pretty much the same schedule the last three seasons: Tufts, Bates, Brandeis, and one elite NESCAC team (this season it's Middlebury). The last couple years, they've also played some Fall matches against elite NESCAC teams, which don't mean much when it comes to rankings in the Spring. But at least we have a general idea of what they're lineup will look like. In this case, their lineup looks pretty much the same as last year, except they've replaced Tilburg, who graduated, with the freshman Eugene Oh at #2; they've flipped their 3 and 4 singles players; and two players who only started in doubles last year are playing numbers 5 and 6. Their 5 and 6 from last year haven't played singles, but one of them have played doubles, and for all we know, the other was abroad or something. Anyways, their lineup looks really strong.
Where They'll Win
Zhang was nearly unstoppable last year, as he bounced around the top of the lineup, ending up at #1. At the end of the year, he destroyed some good players at 1, and I have to wonder what would have happened in the Bowdoin match if he had been in the 1 spot against Sullivan. He is back this year, so I would say #1 singles is definitely their best position. They also managed to get doubles wins against the two best NESCAC schools this Fall, and last season, their #2 and 3 doubles teams went 7-1 against Bowdoin, Brandeis, Tufts, and Bates. Put together, I think they have strength at the top of their lineup in singles, and strength at the bottom of their lineup in doubles.
Where They'll Lose
The Engineers also lost #1 doubles in all four of those matches I just mentioned. I don't whether that just means that MIT has three equally good doubles teams, they're stacking, or if the teams they played against just always had one great doubles team; but the Engineers will need to win, at least occasionally, at #1 doubles to improve their ranking. Their depth also betrayed them when they played Brandeis and Bowdoin last year, so I think they don't have enough good players to hang with the top 15 teams. At the end of the year, they will probably end up playing Midd, Bowdoin, or Williams in the round of 32, and I think that's when their depth will really be exposed.
Schedule Analysis
I alluded to this earlier, but the Engineers play basically the same schedule they do every year: Bates, Brandeis, Tufts, Middlebury. I think Bates, Brandeis, Tufts, and MIT play a round robin every year (at least they did last year), and if someone were to go 4-0, they might find themselves in the top 20. That's essentially the only chance MIT has at improving their ranking this year, but I think they have the best shot out of any of those four teams. Unfortunately, I think the Middlebury match is pretty much unwinnable for them.
Prediction
I believe in the Engineers! At least, I believe in their ability to be second tier D3 teams, which is why I think they're win their matches against Bates, Brandeis, and Tufts. Ultimately, they'll lose to some NESCAC school in the NCAA tournament, but if I'm right, they're making progress. It's only a matter of time before they start competing with the better schools in the NESCAC. We just gotta keep these kids out of the classroom.
That's not an Engineer. Can someone explain this to me? Please. E-mail me.
MIT, of course, is a school best known for its tennis team, and boy do they have a good one. They have brought in a ton of talent in the last couple years, and they only have one senior on their roster. The lone senior didn't even start last year, so I think it's safe to say that this team's best seasons are still in front of them. The only problem for the Engineers is that they play an extremely weak schedule. They have played pretty much the same schedule the last three seasons: Tufts, Bates, Brandeis, and one elite NESCAC team (this season it's Middlebury). The last couple years, they've also played some Fall matches against elite NESCAC teams, which don't mean much when it comes to rankings in the Spring. But at least we have a general idea of what they're lineup will look like. In this case, their lineup looks pretty much the same as last year, except they've replaced Tilburg, who graduated, with the freshman Eugene Oh at #2; they've flipped their 3 and 4 singles players; and two players who only started in doubles last year are playing numbers 5 and 6. Their 5 and 6 from last year haven't played singles, but one of them have played doubles, and for all we know, the other was abroad or something. Anyways, their lineup looks really strong.
Where They'll Win
Zhang was nearly unstoppable last year, as he bounced around the top of the lineup, ending up at #1. At the end of the year, he destroyed some good players at 1, and I have to wonder what would have happened in the Bowdoin match if he had been in the 1 spot against Sullivan. He is back this year, so I would say #1 singles is definitely their best position. They also managed to get doubles wins against the two best NESCAC schools this Fall, and last season, their #2 and 3 doubles teams went 7-1 against Bowdoin, Brandeis, Tufts, and Bates. Put together, I think they have strength at the top of their lineup in singles, and strength at the bottom of their lineup in doubles.
Where They'll Lose
The Engineers also lost #1 doubles in all four of those matches I just mentioned. I don't whether that just means that MIT has three equally good doubles teams, they're stacking, or if the teams they played against just always had one great doubles team; but the Engineers will need to win, at least occasionally, at #1 doubles to improve their ranking. Their depth also betrayed them when they played Brandeis and Bowdoin last year, so I think they don't have enough good players to hang with the top 15 teams. At the end of the year, they will probably end up playing Midd, Bowdoin, or Williams in the round of 32, and I think that's when their depth will really be exposed.
Schedule Analysis
I alluded to this earlier, but the Engineers play basically the same schedule they do every year: Bates, Brandeis, Tufts, Middlebury. I think Bates, Brandeis, Tufts, and MIT play a round robin every year (at least they did last year), and if someone were to go 4-0, they might find themselves in the top 20. That's essentially the only chance MIT has at improving their ranking this year, but I think they have the best shot out of any of those four teams. Unfortunately, I think the Middlebury match is pretty much unwinnable for them.
Prediction
I believe in the Engineers! At least, I believe in their ability to be second tier D3 teams, which is why I think they're win their matches against Bates, Brandeis, and Tufts. Ultimately, they'll lose to some NESCAC school in the NCAA tournament, but if I'm right, they're making progress. It's only a matter of time before they start competing with the better schools in the NESCAC. We just gotta keep these kids out of the classroom.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Season Preview #24: Brandeis
#24 Brandeis
The Judges finished the season two years ago on a high note by beating Chicago, and jumped into the 2011 season with a shiny, new national ranking and high expectations. Unfortunately, they didn't deliver on the expectations, but they did enough to keep their ranking. Despite losing their #1 player, Nick White, and their #5 to graduation, Brandeis will probably have another strong team this year, as they return a lot of veteran leadership. They also brought in a solid recruiting class that should help them fill the holes, and they could be even better this year, depending on whether or not Yovanoff is ready to step into the 1 spot.
Where They'll Win
White at #1 singles was probably their most consistent winner last year, so losing him is going to be tough for the Judges. After Miller left their lineup, they had a hard time winning at #2 and 3 singles, but they picked up several wins at the lower positions. If the new freshmen are better than Brown was at 6 last year, he will probably play there again, and that will make them very, very strong at the bottom of the singles lineup.
Where They'll Lose
The Judges really struggled in doubles last year. The only ranked team they took two doubles matches from was Bates (a team that has it's own doubles woes), and they got swept by CMU and unranked Rochester. Getting swept in doubles basically kills Brandeis' chances of beating any good team, and they aren't so good in singles that they can consistently come back from a 1-2 hole. But if the Judges can find a way to start winning doubles matches against ranked teams, their singles lineup is strong enough to win them the match. The only other problem they might have this year is winning matches at #1 singles. Yovanoff and Bernstein are strong 3/4 combo, but they had a hard time winning at 2/3 last year, and if they play 1/2 this year, it could be a disheartening season for them.
Schedule Analysis
Brandeis starts off its season next week with an early trip to California. We'll see what they're made of when they play Cal Lu and Redlands, but given Redlands' good start this season, I don't think they can win either of those matches. Their other big matches are Middlebury, Bates, MIT, Bowdoin, Trinity (CT), and Tufts. If the Judges want to hold on to their ranking, they will have to win two of those, and the matches against Middlebury and Bowdoin just aren't winnable.
Prediction
I really think the loss of White will be hard for Brandeis to overcome. If they're going to be successful this year, they will have to lean pretty heavily on the bottom half of their lineup. Unfortunately, D3 just keeps getting deeper, and I think they will get upset a couple times this year. I see them going 1-7 against ranked teams, with a win over Tufts or Bates, and ultimately falling out of the top 30. The Judges are good, but there are more good teams battling for ranking spots than ever before, and someone out there is going to get a better win than that.
Dave Yovanoff (Jr.)
General DiscussionThe Judges finished the season two years ago on a high note by beating Chicago, and jumped into the 2011 season with a shiny, new national ranking and high expectations. Unfortunately, they didn't deliver on the expectations, but they did enough to keep their ranking. Despite losing their #1 player, Nick White, and their #5 to graduation, Brandeis will probably have another strong team this year, as they return a lot of veteran leadership. They also brought in a solid recruiting class that should help them fill the holes, and they could be even better this year, depending on whether or not Yovanoff is ready to step into the 1 spot.
Where They'll Win
White at #1 singles was probably their most consistent winner last year, so losing him is going to be tough for the Judges. After Miller left their lineup, they had a hard time winning at #2 and 3 singles, but they picked up several wins at the lower positions. If the new freshmen are better than Brown was at 6 last year, he will probably play there again, and that will make them very, very strong at the bottom of the singles lineup.
Where They'll Lose
The Judges really struggled in doubles last year. The only ranked team they took two doubles matches from was Bates (a team that has it's own doubles woes), and they got swept by CMU and unranked Rochester. Getting swept in doubles basically kills Brandeis' chances of beating any good team, and they aren't so good in singles that they can consistently come back from a 1-2 hole. But if the Judges can find a way to start winning doubles matches against ranked teams, their singles lineup is strong enough to win them the match. The only other problem they might have this year is winning matches at #1 singles. Yovanoff and Bernstein are strong 3/4 combo, but they had a hard time winning at 2/3 last year, and if they play 1/2 this year, it could be a disheartening season for them.
Schedule Analysis
Brandeis starts off its season next week with an early trip to California. We'll see what they're made of when they play Cal Lu and Redlands, but given Redlands' good start this season, I don't think they can win either of those matches. Their other big matches are Middlebury, Bates, MIT, Bowdoin, Trinity (CT), and Tufts. If the Judges want to hold on to their ranking, they will have to win two of those, and the matches against Middlebury and Bowdoin just aren't winnable.
Prediction
I really think the loss of White will be hard for Brandeis to overcome. If they're going to be successful this year, they will have to lean pretty heavily on the bottom half of their lineup. Unfortunately, D3 just keeps getting deeper, and I think they will get upset a couple times this year. I see them going 1-7 against ranked teams, with a win over Tufts or Bates, and ultimately falling out of the top 30. The Judges are good, but there are more good teams battling for ranking spots than ever before, and someone out there is going to get a better win than that.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Season Preview #23: Rhodes
#23 Rhodes
General Discussion
Before I get into it, I want to start off by saying that I'm going to try to get through season previews for the top 30 before Indoors, so they might get a little shorter. Obviously, a few teams outside the top 30 like Kalamazoo deserve a season preview, but you have to draw the line somewhere.
Anyways, Rhodes is the antithesis to the saying, "nothing ventured, nothing gained." They have played almost nobody in the last couple years, yet they are rewarded with their #23 ranking because they haven't lost. This year, they will finally have to back up their ranking against someone other than UT-Tyler when they travel to Mary Washington. Because they have so few meaningful results, it's extremely difficult to get a pulse on this team. They also make it deliberately difficult to figure out who is on their team by not keeping an accurate tennisrecruiting profile, but they actually have a ton of talent. They lost their 4 and 6 singles players from last year, as well as their #3 doubles team, so they might have depth problems. It's impossible to tell who they brought in, so we'll just have to wait and see.
Where They'll Win
They only played 3 matches against ranked teams last year, but in those three matches, they went 11-1 at 1, 2, 5, and 6 singles. I think it's fair to say that they had two standouts, and then four players that were about even with each other. Ryley Erhardt won almost every match he played last year at 1, and he's back this year with a little more of an opportunity to show what he's got. Morgan Slevin also had a strong season at 2, and he's back also, so 1 and 2 singles should be Rhodes' best positions. Slevin and Erhardt also played well together in the Fall, so if the Lynx keep that doubles pairing, #1 doubles will also be a strong position for them
Where They'll Lose
Two years ago, the Lynx really struggled in doubles, but they shored that up last year by splitting their two best players. If they keep them together this year, Rhodes could be weak at #2 and 3 doubles, but what I'm really concerned about for them is the middle of their singles lineup. They went 0-6 against ranked teams at 3 and 4 last year, and their #4 player graduated. So their #3 player, who struggled last year will still be playing three, and their #5 will have to move up and play 4. I'm guessing that the Lynx will have players to step in and fill the void at 5 and 6, but they will need wins from the 3 and 4 positions to beat ranked teams this year.
Schedule Analysis
I'm glad I got to this season preview now, because the bulk of their significant matches take place this weekend. They're in the Mary Washington, Whitman, Kalamazoo quad, and they will probably need to win two of those to keep their ranking. They play Emory two weeks later, which will be good for them to see what's out there, and then they have their yearly matchup with UT-Tyler. The Patriots have taken a couple tough losses from the Lynx in the last few years, and this should be a good grudge match. After that, all they have is the SCAC tournament, and, with Depauw out of the way, you bet on a final match with Trinity.
Prediction
There's just so little to go off of, it's difficult to make a prediction for this team. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they went 3-0 this weekend, but I also wouldn't be that surprised if they went 0-3. Either way, a win over UT-Tyler might be enough to keep them in the rankings, but they only way this program takes a step forward is if they beat Trinity to make it to the NCAA tournament. That's not happening, so I think the best case scenario for the Lynx this year is a year-end ranking around #19, and that only happens if they beat MWU, Whitman, Kalamazoo, and Tyler. I don't think that's going to happen, and my guess is that Rhodes will end the year a little lower than where they started it. Probably in the 26-30 range.
I don't know who these guys are, but can someone tell me why the net man is standing?
General Discussion
Before I get into it, I want to start off by saying that I'm going to try to get through season previews for the top 30 before Indoors, so they might get a little shorter. Obviously, a few teams outside the top 30 like Kalamazoo deserve a season preview, but you have to draw the line somewhere.
Anyways, Rhodes is the antithesis to the saying, "nothing ventured, nothing gained." They have played almost nobody in the last couple years, yet they are rewarded with their #23 ranking because they haven't lost. This year, they will finally have to back up their ranking against someone other than UT-Tyler when they travel to Mary Washington. Because they have so few meaningful results, it's extremely difficult to get a pulse on this team. They also make it deliberately difficult to figure out who is on their team by not keeping an accurate tennisrecruiting profile, but they actually have a ton of talent. They lost their 4 and 6 singles players from last year, as well as their #3 doubles team, so they might have depth problems. It's impossible to tell who they brought in, so we'll just have to wait and see.
Where They'll Win
They only played 3 matches against ranked teams last year, but in those three matches, they went 11-1 at 1, 2, 5, and 6 singles. I think it's fair to say that they had two standouts, and then four players that were about even with each other. Ryley Erhardt won almost every match he played last year at 1, and he's back this year with a little more of an opportunity to show what he's got. Morgan Slevin also had a strong season at 2, and he's back also, so 1 and 2 singles should be Rhodes' best positions. Slevin and Erhardt also played well together in the Fall, so if the Lynx keep that doubles pairing, #1 doubles will also be a strong position for them
Where They'll Lose
Two years ago, the Lynx really struggled in doubles, but they shored that up last year by splitting their two best players. If they keep them together this year, Rhodes could be weak at #2 and 3 doubles, but what I'm really concerned about for them is the middle of their singles lineup. They went 0-6 against ranked teams at 3 and 4 last year, and their #4 player graduated. So their #3 player, who struggled last year will still be playing three, and their #5 will have to move up and play 4. I'm guessing that the Lynx will have players to step in and fill the void at 5 and 6, but they will need wins from the 3 and 4 positions to beat ranked teams this year.
Schedule Analysis
I'm glad I got to this season preview now, because the bulk of their significant matches take place this weekend. They're in the Mary Washington, Whitman, Kalamazoo quad, and they will probably need to win two of those to keep their ranking. They play Emory two weeks later, which will be good for them to see what's out there, and then they have their yearly matchup with UT-Tyler. The Patriots have taken a couple tough losses from the Lynx in the last few years, and this should be a good grudge match. After that, all they have is the SCAC tournament, and, with Depauw out of the way, you bet on a final match with Trinity.
Prediction
There's just so little to go off of, it's difficult to make a prediction for this team. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they went 3-0 this weekend, but I also wouldn't be that surprised if they went 0-3. Either way, a win over UT-Tyler might be enough to keep them in the rankings, but they only way this program takes a step forward is if they beat Trinity to make it to the NCAA tournament. That's not happening, so I think the best case scenario for the Lynx this year is a year-end ranking around #19, and that only happens if they beat MWU, Whitman, Kalamazoo, and Tyler. I don't think that's going to happen, and my guess is that Rhodes will end the year a little lower than where they started it. Probably in the 26-30 range.
Season Preview #22: Mary Washington
#22 Mary Washington
General Discussion
It wasn't too long ago that Mary Washington was in the top ten, but in the last couple years they fell on hard times. Last year, they hosted Indoors, and got what appeared to be a great win over Cal Lu, and it seemed like they were headed back in the right direction, but then they wasted it by losing to Bates, Whittier, and missing an opportunity against CMU. They ended the year by limping into NCAAs against conference rival Salisbury and falling to Kenyon in the Sweet Sixteen. Still, I would say that this program is on its way back to the promise land. They only lost one starter in singles (and another in doubles), and they brought in a recruiting class that includes a four-star in Charles, who might be able to fill the shoes of Murata right away. Additionally, the Eagles have a stacked schedule this year, so they have plenty of opportunities to improve their ranking.
Where They'll Win
Mary Washington seems to have gotten about the same number of wins from all of their singles positions last year, which tells me that they were neither especially strong or especially weak anywhere. Sam Wilchin did pick up a number of good wins at #1 singles last year, and Blahkin was a very capable #3. With another year of experience, they should be even stronger. Add in the recruiting class, and I think the Eagles will be very good this year at the top of their singles lineup. The bottom of the singles lineup shouldn't be much weaker, but they did struggle a little bit at #5 and 6 against the better teams last year. Those positions should be stronger this year, but I still think the top of the singles lineup will be the strength for this team
Where They'll Lose
The Eagles really struggled in doubles last year. They got swept pretty much every time they played a top 15 team, and they even lost two doubles matches against Salisbury, Denison, Bates, and Whittier. I'm convinced that doubles is the key to an upset (watch NCW and take notes), and I really think Mary Washington has to figure this out if they want to beat some of the good teams on their schedule this year. They have the pieces, it's just a matter of putting them together. If they can figure out doubles, they could easily move into the top 20 or even higher.
Schedule Analysis
Mary Washington starts their season this weekend at home against Rhodes, Whitman, and Kalamazoo. They should be favorites in all three of these matches, with the new added bonus of a possible indirect win over Santa Cruz. After that, they will make an early-March trip to California, where they will play Cal Lu, Pomona, and Redlands. They have gone 1-2 against these teams each of the past two years, but I think if they can get one win this year, that would have to be considered a victory. Their next big matches are Case, NCW, Bates, and CMU, and their last match against a ranked team is Johns Hopkins. Based on this weekend, I would say they have a pretty good shot against Case, and virtually no chance against NCW. I'm sure they will be hungry for revenge against Bates, and I think they will get it at home. CMU probably has a slight edge over the Eagles, and Johns Hopkins is probably out of reach. Overall, it's a great schedule, and if they can take care of business against Salisbury in conference, they will be extremely well-prepared going into NCAAs.
Prediction
I think they will sweep this weekend then get swept in California. I now believe they can beat Case, but it will be tough, and I think they will manage to move into the top 20 by beating CMU and Bates on their home courts again. Indoors last year showed that they are pretty tough on their home courts, and I think those same home courts will help them get the wins to climb back into the top 20 this year. I still don't think it will be enough to get them into the Elite Eight though, because they still aren't good enough to beat one of the big dogs, even on their best day.
General Discussion
It wasn't too long ago that Mary Washington was in the top ten, but in the last couple years they fell on hard times. Last year, they hosted Indoors, and got what appeared to be a great win over Cal Lu, and it seemed like they were headed back in the right direction, but then they wasted it by losing to Bates, Whittier, and missing an opportunity against CMU. They ended the year by limping into NCAAs against conference rival Salisbury and falling to Kenyon in the Sweet Sixteen. Still, I would say that this program is on its way back to the promise land. They only lost one starter in singles (and another in doubles), and they brought in a recruiting class that includes a four-star in Charles, who might be able to fill the shoes of Murata right away. Additionally, the Eagles have a stacked schedule this year, so they have plenty of opportunities to improve their ranking.
Where They'll Win
Mary Washington seems to have gotten about the same number of wins from all of their singles positions last year, which tells me that they were neither especially strong or especially weak anywhere. Sam Wilchin did pick up a number of good wins at #1 singles last year, and Blahkin was a very capable #3. With another year of experience, they should be even stronger. Add in the recruiting class, and I think the Eagles will be very good this year at the top of their singles lineup. The bottom of the singles lineup shouldn't be much weaker, but they did struggle a little bit at #5 and 6 against the better teams last year. Those positions should be stronger this year, but I still think the top of the singles lineup will be the strength for this team
Where They'll Lose
The Eagles really struggled in doubles last year. They got swept pretty much every time they played a top 15 team, and they even lost two doubles matches against Salisbury, Denison, Bates, and Whittier. I'm convinced that doubles is the key to an upset (watch NCW and take notes), and I really think Mary Washington has to figure this out if they want to beat some of the good teams on their schedule this year. They have the pieces, it's just a matter of putting them together. If they can figure out doubles, they could easily move into the top 20 or even higher.
Schedule Analysis
Mary Washington starts their season this weekend at home against Rhodes, Whitman, and Kalamazoo. They should be favorites in all three of these matches, with the new added bonus of a possible indirect win over Santa Cruz. After that, they will make an early-March trip to California, where they will play Cal Lu, Pomona, and Redlands. They have gone 1-2 against these teams each of the past two years, but I think if they can get one win this year, that would have to be considered a victory. Their next big matches are Case, NCW, Bates, and CMU, and their last match against a ranked team is Johns Hopkins. Based on this weekend, I would say they have a pretty good shot against Case, and virtually no chance against NCW. I'm sure they will be hungry for revenge against Bates, and I think they will get it at home. CMU probably has a slight edge over the Eagles, and Johns Hopkins is probably out of reach. Overall, it's a great schedule, and if they can take care of business against Salisbury in conference, they will be extremely well-prepared going into NCAAs.
Prediction
I think they will sweep this weekend then get swept in California. I now believe they can beat Case, but it will be tough, and I think they will manage to move into the top 20 by beating CMU and Bates on their home courts again. Indoors last year showed that they are pretty tough on their home courts, and I think those same home courts will help them get the wins to climb back into the top 20 this year. I still don't think it will be enough to get them into the Elite Eight though, because they still aren't good enough to beat one of the big dogs, even on their best day.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Another Big Upset
NCW Senior, Alexey Rumyantsev
http://athletics.kenyon.edu/x42122.xml
#12 NC-Wesleyan 5, #7 Kenyon 4
So much for that talk about Kenyon being a possible Final Four team. And so much for the talk about NC-Wesleyan sucking at doubles. I. Am. Always. Wrong.
Anyways, NC-Wesleyan looked good in doubles today. It seems like Kenyon was lucky to get the one point that they got. In singles, NCW got a fairly routine victory at #3 singles, but the Kenyon freshmen stepped up big. That must have left the match at 3-3, with three matches left. NCW showed once again that they are exceptionally deep, taking five and six. I think we can take away from this match that just because a team looks dominant one weekend, doesn't necessarily mean they always play that way.
Kenyon
I can't wait to see how the Lords respond to this loss at Indoors. It's gotta be heartbreaking to lose a match like that on your home courts, and I know that Kenyon is really confident this year. Will a loss like this shake their confidence? Or will they come out like a wounded bear? Burgin is playing like a savvy veteran, and could actually be one of the best players in the country. Their freshman are also playing like savvy veterans, which is a nice little bonus for the Lords. But so far, the bottom of their lineup is slightly suspect, and they need to shore that up before Indoors, or they could see their ranking start to slip in a hurry. We really have no idea how Depauw is going to be this year, but they have to come back with a vengeance so that everyone knows the conference championship is not in question.
NC-Wesleyan
This is an awesome win for the Battling Bishops, and they can expect to be in the top 10 when the rankings come out in March. They will have to back it up with a victory over JHU if they want to keep that ranking. I think it's pretty apparent that NCW's success against higher-ranked teams will be heavily dependent on their doubles play. Their singles lineup is so good that, if they can take two doubles matches, they can beat anyone in the country (except for Amherst and Claremont). Anyone know how a higher ranking could affect the shape of NCAA's this year?
In other news...
http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=228997&page=lr
#11 Chicago 5, Kalamazoo 4
What!? At least I picked the winner right this time. Jesus. And that score is with a doubles sweep from the Maroons. What are they doing!? I really have no words for this team. They might actually lose to Wisconsin-Whitewater. I never would have thought that was possible. They mystify me. For all I know, they could turn around and win two matches at Indoors. I'm going to reserve judgement on them.
Kalamazoo
The Hornets are definitely strong this year, and they are my new pick to beat Whitman next weekend. This group of seniors seems to be hungry to get their team back into the national rankings, and they have plenty of opportunities: Whitman, Rhodes, and Mary Washington next weekend; Whitewater the following weekend; and Trinity (CT) over Spring Break. I think they can get one. But again, we'll reassess after next weekend. I just had a total nostalgia moment. It's hard to believe the Hornets were ranked #17 and coming off a huge victory over Chicago about this time two years ago. How things have changed...
Whitman Stuns Cruz (and other weekend results)
Whitman Junior, Jeff Tolman
#29 Whitman 6, #6 Santa Cruz 3
I was going to try to hold off on posting about this weekend until it was over, but what happened last night needs writing about. Whitman beat Cruz 6-3, and the box score doesn't even make it look like an upset (I got this off Coach Northam's blog because it's not on the ITA website yet. you can also read about the match at http://www.whitmantennis.net):
Doubles
- Matt Tesmond/Conor Holton-Burke def Devin Nerenberg/Eli Scandalis 8-1
- Jeff Tolman/Andrew La Cava def Erik Rosner/Ian Stanley 8-6
- James Rivers/Sam Sadeghi def Sam Rodgers/Erich Koenig 9-7
Singles
- Andrew La Cava lost Devin Nerenberg 6-3, 6-4
- Jeff Tolman def Erich Koenig 6-3, 6-4
- Conor Holton-Burke def Andre Halabi 7-6, 6-0
- James Rivers lost Erik Rosner 4-6, 7-6, 6-4
- Sam Sadeghi lost Bryce Bettwy 5-7, 6-2, 10-7
- Adriel Borshansky def Sam Rodgers 6-2 6-4
Normally, with a colossal upset, you see a doubles sweep followed by two tight victories. This isn't that. From Northam's blog, it seems like this match was a lot closer to being 8-1 Whitman than 5-4 Cruz. Whitman had a match point at #4 singles, and you can see from the score line that they came close at #5.
There are two ways to look at this result. You can look at it and say, "Cruz lost its edge when it lost Hansen, and is now clearly overrated. They will probably finish the season outside the top 15 for the first time in forever." Or you can say, "Whitman must be much better than we thought they were. They're bound to be tough on their home court, so let's not overreact to the Cruz loss and just give Whitman some credit." In reality, it's probably a combo of both, but I want to cover both sides of it.
Cruz
It didn't seem like this would be a down year for Cruz. They were supposed to return 5 out of 6, and, even though they lost an all-time great in Pybas, they added Nurenberg, so that shouldn't hurt them too much. Unfortunately, they also lost Parker Larsen for some reason, and I think that loss really has them reeling. Cruz has always been one of the best doubles team, and without Larsen and Pybas, they lose their #1 team from last year. That's hard to recover from. I want to take it easy on Coach Parmelly, but I just don't think Hansen would have let his team go down 0-3 in a hostile environment. No matter how tough you are, you can't come back from that against a good team.
The upswing of all this is that Cruz desperately, desperately needs a win against Trinity at Indoors. If they can get it, they can write this loss off as a bit of a fluke like that loss to Cal Lu two years ago, and everything will be right in the world. If they lose, the mumbles and grumbles about Hansen will only get louder. This is a program with a lot of tradition, and I think D3 was overreacting a little bit last night when he said something along the lines of "this is the beginning of the end of the golden age of Cruz tennis," but they need to do better and fast.
Whitman
I think it's only appropriate for me to just eat my words about Whitman. I was wrong. They won, and they looked good doing it. Looking at their results from this year, they have clearly been playing great tennis this whole time. They beat Hawaii-Pacific (ranked #22 in DII) earlier this year, and they've given some DI teams a tough time. Still, just like with the Cruz situation, I don't think people should overreact. I don't think it's safe to consider Whitman a top 15 team yet. The last couple years, they've had some big wins against Pomona and Trinity (Tx), so in a way, we already knew that they were capable of playing like a top 10 team one out of six times. Each of the past two years, however, they've followed up their big win by laying a huge egg. Two years ago, they lost to Redlands by an uncompetitive 7-2 score after beating Pomona, and last year they lost to Texas-Tyler 6-3 after beating Trinity.
That said, Whitman has what might be the most important weekend in program history this weekend when they travel to Virginia to play Mary Washington, Rhodes, and Kalamazoo. These matches weren't on the D3 calendar, but they're on the Whitman website. Honestly, I think Whitman will probably drop at least one of these three matches, which will murder their chances at a top 15 ranking. They will be under a lot of pressure to back up their big win, and they will have to beat three good teams far, far away from home. Even if that happens, this is a great win for a program that's long on heart and short on talent. I would love to see what Whitman could do with some better recruits.
Other Weekend Results
#7 Kenyon 8, #19 Case Western 1
http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=228778&page=lr
I'm a little tired of typing at this point, so I'll keep this brief. I was wrong, again. I'm not off to a good start with this prediction thing. It looks like Case isn't actually ready for the big time, as they got killed by Kenyon, and there's no way you can look at this score line and say that it was close. Kenyon got two easy wins in doubles, and the third one looks solid, aswell. Then, Kenyon demolished Case at three of the singles positions. Burgin and Williams are off to great starts, and the Lords are getting contributions from their freshman already. I think this recruiting class could help these guys make the push into the final four. We'll know more after today's match.
#12 NCW 7, #19 Case Western 2
http://athletics.case.edu/sports/mten/2011-12/files/case-ncm.htm
This boxscore confirms that Case just isn't ready to move into the top 15, but I'll talk about NCW first. Why can't they play doubles!? I don't get it. Their singles lineup is so strong, and they can sweep anyone outside the top 15 off the singles court. Why can't they put together cohesive doubles teams. It doesn't make any sense. They need to turn their doubles around if they want to become the team they think that they already are. Right now, their doubles is preventing them from moving into the top 10. Other than that, their singles lineup looks great. They absolutely demolished Case, and I think the relatively easy wins at the bottom of the lineup are an especially good sign because I didn't know how deep they were (it's hard to tell how good their bench players are when they're all international)
With regard to Case. I was wrong. Oh boy, was I wrong. They didn't even compete with Kenyon and NCW in singles. It's clear that they can still play good doubles, but even a doubles sweep won't help if you can't win a singles match. Hopefully they can turn it around this week before they play Depauw. If they lose that one, their chances of making NCAAs will fall from slim to none.
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