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Friday, February 24, 2012
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Indoors Updates?/ Week's Results
If anyone who is going to be at Indoors this weekend is interested in writing some guest articles for the blog, please e-mail me. It would be great to have someone who can relay the dramatic moments, and I would love to keep the blog as up-to-date as possible. For instance, if someone saves 3 match points, serving at 4-5 in the third set, breaks the next game, and wins the match, that's something that cannot be captured by a box score. So please e-mail me if you're going to be there and have an interest in writing
As for results this week...
#6 Cruz def. #26 Bates 6-3
A huge bounce back match for Cruz as they prepare for Indoors, but they didn't answer all of the questions surrounding the team at the moment. What is up with Erich Koenig? And what is going on with the Nurenberg/Scandalis doubles team? Those are problems that need to be fixed before tomorrow.
#15 Redlands def. Washington & Lee 6-3
These two teams had a great battle at the top of the singles lineup, and this match is more proof that the Generals are pretty good this year. It also shows that the Bulldogs are back to their battling ways, and that they are extremely deep this year. I look forward to seeing more results from both of these teams.
#20 Cal Lu def. #24 Brandeis 7-2
I don't know whether to take this as a good sign or a bad sign for the Kingsmen. For one, they dominated a nationally ranked team, but they only did one match better than Occidental. Ballou lost his singles match, which needs to not happen if Cal Lu wants to try to repeat its 2010 success. The fact that Sousa is playing 6, however, bodes well for Cal Lu.
As for results this week...
#6 Cruz def. #26 Bates 6-3
A huge bounce back match for Cruz as they prepare for Indoors, but they didn't answer all of the questions surrounding the team at the moment. What is up with Erich Koenig? And what is going on with the Nurenberg/Scandalis doubles team? Those are problems that need to be fixed before tomorrow.
#15 Redlands def. Washington & Lee 6-3
These two teams had a great battle at the top of the singles lineup, and this match is more proof that the Generals are pretty good this year. It also shows that the Bulldogs are back to their battling ways, and that they are extremely deep this year. I look forward to seeing more results from both of these teams.
#20 Cal Lu def. #24 Brandeis 7-2
I don't know whether to take this as a good sign or a bad sign for the Kingsmen. For one, they dominated a nationally ranked team, but they only did one match better than Occidental. Ballou lost his singles match, which needs to not happen if Cal Lu wants to try to repeat its 2010 success. The fact that Sousa is playing 6, however, bodes well for Cal Lu.
Weekend (Non-Indoors) Predictions
Carnegie Mellon's Vinit Palayekar
There are some matchups happening this weekend that are worthy of recognition, but once Indoors starts, I will probably not pay attention to anything else. Here are my predictions for those matches:
Saturday
#21 Wisconsin-Whitewater @ Kalamazoo
Kalamazoo has proven that they are tough, especially on their home courts, but there's a really safe way to view this match: Whitewater beat Chicago 5-4. Kalamazoo lost to Chicago 5-4. Whitewater swept Chicago in doubles. Chicago swept Kalamazoo in doubles. I think these two teams will end up splitting the singles, but Whitewater has been really good in doubles and Kalamazoo has been atrocious. Unless something has changed drastically in the way the Hornets play doubles in the last week, I have to take the Warhawks in this one. 6-3.
#17 Carnegie Mellon vs. Luther
Luther got demolished by Whitewater two weeks ago. Sure, Whitewater is especially good this year, and CMU might be in for a down year, but I just can't pick the upset in this one. Luther apparently has two good singles players, but if they can't win in doubles, they have no chance. This is the first look we'll have at CMU this year, but until they prove that they're especially bad this year, I'll have to go with the Tartans by a score of 7-2.
#24 Brandeis @ #15 Redlands
Redlands starts its D3 schedule tomorrow against Bates, but I think it's safe to say that Bates is significantly better than Brandeis this year after the Judges' loss to Oxy. The only way I see this match being close is if the Bulldogs completely let down after a big win tomorrow. Again, Redlands have looked good this year so far, but they are prone to weird performances. Plus, the Judges will definitely be acclimated by the time they play Redlands. I think Brandeis will play its best match of the trip against Redlands but still lose 8-1.
Luther @ #16 Depauw
I consider CMU and Depauw to be a lot alike this year. Both teams competing for a Pool C bid and flying a little bit below the radar. The difference is that Depauw now has a significant blemish on its record already, so they have to play balls-to-the-wall for the rest of the season if they want to make the tournament. I think they will eventually have to take their foot off the gas, but there's no way that happens in their first big match after the upset. Depauw, 8-1.
#26 Bates @ #5 CMS
Bates, quite simply, has no chance to win this match. It's scary to me that the Stags can use teams ranked in the 20's as warm ups, but they have certainly have a well-planned schedule this year. 9-0 Claremont.
Sunday
#17 Carnegie Mellon @ #16 Depauw
If you ignore the state of Minnesota, this is the match of the weekend. After being upset by Case last weekend, Depauw absolutely cannot afford to lose this match, but the Tartans need it almost as bad. Losing to a Pool C competitor is always incredibly damaging. Given Chicago's start, Pool C looks a little bit more open to both of these teams, but neither can afford to lose this one. Depauw has the slight advantage of playing on their home courts, but that didn't help them last weekend. CMU, however, hasn't played a significant DIII match yet. I think last weekend's experience ends up making the difference in this match, and Depauw wins a 5-4 thriller.
Season Preview #31: Denison
I decided just to pump out two season previews today to finish them off before the season really heats up this weekend.
#30.2 Denison
The Big Red had a ton of close calls last year against teams ranked in the teens, but they just couldn't pull any of them out. As it is, their only good win was a 6-3 triumph over Carnegie Mellon, unless you want to count a 6-3 win over Kalamazoo. Regardless, the Big Red are definitely a solid team: they return 5 of their singles starters from last year, and they bring in a massive recruiting class. In their first match this year, they had two freshmen in their singles lineup (and one more is competing for a spot), which shows that their depth will be much stronger this year. That's good for them, because, honestly, their depth was a little questionable last year.
Where They'll Win
Denison played great doubles last year. They took two out of three from Chicago, CMU, Depauw, and Mary Washington. The only comparable team they couldn't beat in doubles was Case Western, which we know is a great doubles team in its own respect. I would expect them to continue playing good doubles this year, as they return two of their doubles teams. They can only get better with the new additions. Additionally, the heart of their lineup was phenomenal last year. They won 3 and 4 singles against CMU, Case, and Mary Washington, which is saying a lot because they lost two of those matches. #4 seemed to be a particularly strong position, but that might have been an unintentional stack because Cawood is now playing #1 for them.
Where They'll Lose
Denison seemed to run out of good players after 5 last year because they couldn't win at 6 against good teams. Their #5 wasn't great, and he lost in all the matches that I just mentioned, but he also had some big wins. They just never won at #6 singles. That shouldn't be as much of a problem this year with all the new freshmen, and I would think that Denison should finish this year in the mid- or low twenties because of it. When they come up against higher-ranked teams, however, their depth will probably still be their weak point. If not, they will be hurt by the fact that they don't have a definite star, and will not be able to win at #1 singles when they play top 15 teams.
Schedule Analysis
The Big Red have a well-planned schedule this year. The matches they play against higher-ranked teams are winnable (for the most part), and they only have one match against a dangerous lower-ranked team (Kalamazoo). In terms of winnable matches, they have Case, CMU, and Depauw. In terms of unwinnable matches, they have Kenyon, which is tragic because they will need to beat Kenyon to make the NCAA tournament.
Prediction
Denison played Case, CMU, and Depauw last year; they came really close twice, and won once. If they really want to make a splash this year, they need to win all three, but I don't think that will happen. I think they can beat CMU again, and Depauw might be vulnerable, but I don't think they will beat Case. Case is basically a team that is better at what Denison is good at, which makes that one a poor matchup for the Big Red. Other than that, I think they will beat Kalamazoo, lose to Kenyon to finish the year in the 24-28 range.
#30.2 Denison
Casey Cempre (Fr.)
General DiscussionThe Big Red had a ton of close calls last year against teams ranked in the teens, but they just couldn't pull any of them out. As it is, their only good win was a 6-3 triumph over Carnegie Mellon, unless you want to count a 6-3 win over Kalamazoo. Regardless, the Big Red are definitely a solid team: they return 5 of their singles starters from last year, and they bring in a massive recruiting class. In their first match this year, they had two freshmen in their singles lineup (and one more is competing for a spot), which shows that their depth will be much stronger this year. That's good for them, because, honestly, their depth was a little questionable last year.
Where They'll Win
Denison played great doubles last year. They took two out of three from Chicago, CMU, Depauw, and Mary Washington. The only comparable team they couldn't beat in doubles was Case Western, which we know is a great doubles team in its own respect. I would expect them to continue playing good doubles this year, as they return two of their doubles teams. They can only get better with the new additions. Additionally, the heart of their lineup was phenomenal last year. They won 3 and 4 singles against CMU, Case, and Mary Washington, which is saying a lot because they lost two of those matches. #4 seemed to be a particularly strong position, but that might have been an unintentional stack because Cawood is now playing #1 for them.
Where They'll Lose
Denison seemed to run out of good players after 5 last year because they couldn't win at 6 against good teams. Their #5 wasn't great, and he lost in all the matches that I just mentioned, but he also had some big wins. They just never won at #6 singles. That shouldn't be as much of a problem this year with all the new freshmen, and I would think that Denison should finish this year in the mid- or low twenties because of it. When they come up against higher-ranked teams, however, their depth will probably still be their weak point. If not, they will be hurt by the fact that they don't have a definite star, and will not be able to win at #1 singles when they play top 15 teams.
Schedule Analysis
The Big Red have a well-planned schedule this year. The matches they play against higher-ranked teams are winnable (for the most part), and they only have one match against a dangerous lower-ranked team (Kalamazoo). In terms of winnable matches, they have Case, CMU, and Depauw. In terms of unwinnable matches, they have Kenyon, which is tragic because they will need to beat Kenyon to make the NCAA tournament.
Prediction
Denison played Case, CMU, and Depauw last year; they came really close twice, and won once. If they really want to make a splash this year, they need to win all three, but I don't think that will happen. I think they can beat CMU again, and Depauw might be vulnerable, but I don't think they will beat Case. Case is basically a team that is better at what Denison is good at, which makes that one a poor matchup for the Big Red. Other than that, I think they will beat Kalamazoo, lose to Kenyon to finish the year in the 24-28 range.
Season Preview #30: Skidmore
#30 Skidmore
I'm really not sure how Skidmore managed to keep a ranking based on last year's results. All they had was a pair of victories over Vassar. Don't get me wrong, Vassar is a good team, and Skidmore certainly is one of the 30 best teams in the country, but they probably don't deserve the ranking based solely on their results. The Thoroughbreds have put together consecutive solid recruiting classes now, but the results haven't come yet. This year could be the year they make a leap, but a lot depends on how they recover from the loss of the heart of their lineup (their 3 and 4 singles players). Luckily for them, they've brought in capable replacements in Hoblitzell and Ransom, so look for them to be better than they were last year.
Where They'll Win
Skidmore had good depth and a really strong #3 doubles team last year. I'm always suspicious of teams that consistently win at #3 doubles but not 1 and 2, but Skidmore probably just had three pretty even doubles teams. With regard to depth, they will probably be strong there again this year. Even though they lost the heart of their lineup, they had some pretty good players on their bench, and their new freshmen will definitely bolster the bottom of their lineup. I think Skidmore has the depth of a top 20 team, but they definitely had a hard time winning at the top of the singles ladder last year.
Where They'll Lose
Speaking of which, the Thoroughbreds return their top two singles players from last year, but they will have to play better this year if Skidmore wants to move up in the rankings. Loutsenko had a good Fall, and he's in the #1 spot now. A lot of Skidmore's success will depend on his play. He still probably isn't good enough to compete with the top players from the best teams, but Skidmore will be in good shape if he can beat a Guzick. Other than that, Skidmore had a little difficulty at #1 doubles last year, and they will need to shore that up, as well.
Schedule Analysis
Skidmore plays Vassar in a couple of days, and that is probably the most important regular season match for them. If they can't beat Vassar, they won't go to NCAAs, so I'll be paying particular attention to that box score. Other than that, Skidmore basically plays the entire top 10, and I have to wonder about that scheduling because they have very little chance of beating any of those teams. At best, they pick off a team who is unexpectedly weak this year, and they are well-prepared for their conference championship match against Vassar. At worst, they lose every match and become despirited.
Prediction
I don't think the Thoroughbreds will actually win any of those matches against top 10 teams, but they probably have a better team than Vassar. If the Guzicks can somehow will that team to victory this year, it will be a testament to their ability, but Vassar has half a team, and I think Skidmore will beat them with their depth.
Oliver Loutsenko (So.)
General DiscussionI'm really not sure how Skidmore managed to keep a ranking based on last year's results. All they had was a pair of victories over Vassar. Don't get me wrong, Vassar is a good team, and Skidmore certainly is one of the 30 best teams in the country, but they probably don't deserve the ranking based solely on their results. The Thoroughbreds have put together consecutive solid recruiting classes now, but the results haven't come yet. This year could be the year they make a leap, but a lot depends on how they recover from the loss of the heart of their lineup (their 3 and 4 singles players). Luckily for them, they've brought in capable replacements in Hoblitzell and Ransom, so look for them to be better than they were last year.
Where They'll Win
Skidmore had good depth and a really strong #3 doubles team last year. I'm always suspicious of teams that consistently win at #3 doubles but not 1 and 2, but Skidmore probably just had three pretty even doubles teams. With regard to depth, they will probably be strong there again this year. Even though they lost the heart of their lineup, they had some pretty good players on their bench, and their new freshmen will definitely bolster the bottom of their lineup. I think Skidmore has the depth of a top 20 team, but they definitely had a hard time winning at the top of the singles ladder last year.
Where They'll Lose
Speaking of which, the Thoroughbreds return their top two singles players from last year, but they will have to play better this year if Skidmore wants to move up in the rankings. Loutsenko had a good Fall, and he's in the #1 spot now. A lot of Skidmore's success will depend on his play. He still probably isn't good enough to compete with the top players from the best teams, but Skidmore will be in good shape if he can beat a Guzick. Other than that, Skidmore had a little difficulty at #1 doubles last year, and they will need to shore that up, as well.
Schedule Analysis
Skidmore plays Vassar in a couple of days, and that is probably the most important regular season match for them. If they can't beat Vassar, they won't go to NCAAs, so I'll be paying particular attention to that box score. Other than that, Skidmore basically plays the entire top 10, and I have to wonder about that scheduling because they have very little chance of beating any of those teams. At best, they pick off a team who is unexpectedly weak this year, and they are well-prepared for their conference championship match against Vassar. At worst, they lose every match and become despirited.
Prediction
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Indoors Predictions
The Swanson Tennis Center welcomes Indoors back to its bubbly interior this weekend
#2 Emory vs. Gustavus Adolphus
It's good for the Gusties to play matches like this, but, honestly, they don't have any chance. Gustavus has a couple good players, but they are no match for Pottish/Goodwin, and Emory is by far the deeper team. Goodwin hasn't been playing so far this year, so he might be injured, but I think the Eagles will sweep the singles with or without him. Gustavus was able to win a point in each of their matches last time they hosted, and if they're going to get one in this one, they're going to have to do it in doubles. I don't see that happening, and I think Emory will win 9-0
#3 Wash U vs. #11 University of Chicago
Wash U beat the #19 ranked team in DII last week, so it looks like they will be as strong as ever this year. The box score indicates that they are incredibly deep, as they took 5 and 6 singles easily. I think we all know the story with Chicago by now. On paper, it seems like this match should be pretty even, and last year, it was. But history will not repeat itself at Indoors. The Maroons swept the Bears last year, but I think it will be the other way around this time. Wash U will come out energized and sweep the doubles. They will proceed to roll through singles. Chicago will pick up its lone win from Jan Stefanski, who always seems to win (and is probably playing way lower than he should be). Wash U, 8-1.
#6 Santa Cruz vs. #10 Trinity (TX)
The Slugs rebounded nicely today against Bates, and momentarily quenched some of the fatalistic rhetoric surrounding the program. Trinity has only played a handful of non-DIII matches so far, and it's hard to know where their strength is. I think this match will come down to the wire, as it did last year, but I think Cruz' experience with indoor tennis at Whitman will ultimately help them win this one. I think Cruz wins #3 doubles, Trinity wins #2 doubles, Cruz wins #1 singles, Trinity wins #3 singles, and Cruz takes 2 out of the 4-6 positions. Trinity probably has a slight edge at #1 doubles with the very experience Frey/DelaFuente , but the Rosner/Stanley doubles team is playing well. Santa Cruz will win if Koenig can find his form and beat Dela Fuente, which I think he will. Santa Cruz, 5-4.
#7 Kenyon vs. #8 Pomona-Pitzer
This is a very interesting matchup. The Lords are coming off a disappointing loss to NCW, so they should be hungry to win this one to prove that they are for real this year. P-P has never played at Indoors before, and I think it's probably a safe bet to say that their players won't be used to playing Indoor tennis at all. Also, when these two teams met last year, it was an absolute war. I like the Lords to come out on top in this one, 6-3. I think the Hens could take a 2-1 lead after doubles, but I think the Lords are probably stronger 4-6, and I think they will take two out of the top 3. I think Kenyon is better prepared to play this match inside, on a big stage, and that will ultimately be the difference. When they meet in the Stag-Hen, it will probably be a different story.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Season (P)review #29: Whitman
#29 Whitman
The Squirrels are already off to a dream season, and it couldn't be more obvious that I had no idea this was coming. They lost their #3 singles player and another doubles player from last season's team, and they only brought in two 2-stars. One of those 2-star freshmen is playing very well for them at #4, and somehow they're using basically the same players to make a much better team, kinda like Pomona last year. In my mind, Whitman and Whitewater are a lot alike. On paper, they have no chance to beat anyone in the top 25, but they've already beaten three this year, so that has to be attributed to development, coaching, and heart.
Where They'll Win
So far this year, the Squirrels have gotten contributions from every position. In their four matches against good DIII teams, every position is at least 2-2. Basically, however, they're playing the same brand of tennis they always have--only quite a bit better. They play really strong doubles and then find wins lower in their singles lineup. Last year, they won 2 out of 3 against Trinity in doubles, and this year, they've taken 2 out of 3 against Mary Washington and swept Cruz. Their box scores from this weekend indicate that they're still strong deep in the lineup, but what has really helped this team is the emergence of La Cava at #1. Last year, they couldn't buy wins from the top position, but La Cava's win over Wichlin shows that they can compete this year.
Where They'll Lose
In years past, Whitman has always had some definite weak spots in their lineup. Last year, it was #3 doubles and their top 2 singles spots. The Squirrels have definitely shored up their weaknesses, and they seem pretty solid from top to bottom this year. Accordingly, they are probably vulnerable wherever another team is strong. Santa Cruz is deep, and they took 4 and 5 from Whitman. Mary Washington is top-heavy, and they took 2 and 3.
Schedule Analysis
The reason I put quotes around the "p" in preview is because they've already played most of their big matches. They've already beaten Cruz, Rhodes, Kalamazoo, and Mary Washington, and the only tests they have left on their schedule are Whittier and Trinity (CT). After that, they just have to take care of their conference and be off to NCAAs.
Prediction
Whitman will probably jump into the top 15 in the next rankings, and if they hold onto that ranking, it would be an absolute travesty if they were sent to the California region. Whittier is better than their ranking, so they have to come to play in that one, but if they do, they should win. Their match against Trinity is really difficult to predict. If Whitman's season follows the same arc as 2010CalLu and 2011Pomona, they will lose that match. Also, a win over Whitman could actually help Trinity in Pool C now (depending on indirects), so the will be really pumped up. Regardless of the outcome of that match, Whitman should make a good #2 seed in the NCAAs, and I expect they will lose in the round of 16 and finish the year in the 13-18 range, a banner year for a "program in decline" (quoting myself. good call, me).
Andrew La Cava (So.)
General DiscussionThe Squirrels are already off to a dream season, and it couldn't be more obvious that I had no idea this was coming. They lost their #3 singles player and another doubles player from last season's team, and they only brought in two 2-stars. One of those 2-star freshmen is playing very well for them at #4, and somehow they're using basically the same players to make a much better team, kinda like Pomona last year. In my mind, Whitman and Whitewater are a lot alike. On paper, they have no chance to beat anyone in the top 25, but they've already beaten three this year, so that has to be attributed to development, coaching, and heart.
Where They'll Win
So far this year, the Squirrels have gotten contributions from every position. In their four matches against good DIII teams, every position is at least 2-2. Basically, however, they're playing the same brand of tennis they always have--only quite a bit better. They play really strong doubles and then find wins lower in their singles lineup. Last year, they won 2 out of 3 against Trinity in doubles, and this year, they've taken 2 out of 3 against Mary Washington and swept Cruz. Their box scores from this weekend indicate that they're still strong deep in the lineup, but what has really helped this team is the emergence of La Cava at #1. Last year, they couldn't buy wins from the top position, but La Cava's win over Wichlin shows that they can compete this year.
Where They'll Lose
In years past, Whitman has always had some definite weak spots in their lineup. Last year, it was #3 doubles and their top 2 singles spots. The Squirrels have definitely shored up their weaknesses, and they seem pretty solid from top to bottom this year. Accordingly, they are probably vulnerable wherever another team is strong. Santa Cruz is deep, and they took 4 and 5 from Whitman. Mary Washington is top-heavy, and they took 2 and 3.
Schedule Analysis
The reason I put quotes around the "p" in preview is because they've already played most of their big matches. They've already beaten Cruz, Rhodes, Kalamazoo, and Mary Washington, and the only tests they have left on their schedule are Whittier and Trinity (CT). After that, they just have to take care of their conference and be off to NCAAs.
Prediction
Whitman will probably jump into the top 15 in the next rankings, and if they hold onto that ranking, it would be an absolute travesty if they were sent to the California region. Whittier is better than their ranking, so they have to come to play in that one, but if they do, they should win. Their match against Trinity is really difficult to predict. If Whitman's season follows the same arc as 2010CalLu and 2011Pomona, they will lose that match. Also, a win over Whitman could actually help Trinity in Pool C now (depending on indirects), so the will be really pumped up. Regardless of the outcome of that match, Whitman should make a good #2 seed in the NCAAs, and I expect they will lose in the round of 16 and finish the year in the 13-18 range, a banner year for a "program in decline" (quoting myself. good call, me).
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