Season Preview #14: Bowdoin

#14 Bowdoin

Sorry Slugs, but the Polar Bears might be the coolest mascot in the top 20

General Discussion


Bowdoin is a team that finds itself in a difficult position within the current D3 landscape. They essentially have no chance at winning their conference, and they continually have to compete with the stacked NESCAC to get a pool C bid. Put them in any conference outside the UAA and SCIAC, and they could be conference champs. We don't know; they hardly ever get the chance to play against good teams outside their conference. Unfortunately for them, they have been the 4th best team in the NESCAC for the past two years, and that puts them in a very precarious situation when it comes to making it to the NCAAs. They haven't beaten the NESCAC "top 3" for the past three seasons, but they also haven't gotten upset by the likes of Trinity or Bates. The Polar Bears kind of remind me of Andy Murray in that sense. He can almost beat the big three, but he never does, and he never loses to anyone else. Like Murray, the question with Bowdoin has to be: can they get over the hump?

Where They'll Win


I don't think any team relied as much on one player last year as Bowdoin relied on Stephen Sullivan. He was rock solid at #1 singles, and half of a great #1 doubles team. When they came close to beating Williams teams, it was because he won both of his matches. When they needed someone to get an easy win against an upset-minded MIT, it was Sullivan. And in both disappointing losses to Middlebury, Sullivan lost both of his matches. He's gone now, but the Polar Bears return the heart of their lineup, which competed well against everyone in the country last year. Whoever takes Sullivan's position, whether it's Lord, King, or Pena is probably going to struggle, but I think Bowdoin is going to be particularly strong in the #2-5 positions. They are bringing in a great recruiting class, so they will probably be strong all the way through the bottom, but Bowdoin is one of those teams that has 4 or 5 players that are essentially even. Whoever plays #4 is going to be essentially as good as whoever plays #1, which is great for the #4.

Where They'll Lose


There's another way to look at that previous statement. Whoever plays #1 is going to be essentially as good as whoever plays #4, which is horrible for the #1 player. In their Fall match against Concordia, Pena played 1, and if he stays there, he's in for a rough season. It can't be easy going up against all the best players from all the NESCAC schools, both physically and mentally. They will compete throughout the lineup against everyone, but as a team, they will need to find at least a couple wins from their #1 spot to have a good season. Right now, I predict that they will struggle finding those wins.

Schedule Analysis


The good news for Bowdoin is that they will be playing a ton of out-of-conference matches against highly-ranked teams in California this year. That means they will have several chances to solidify their pool C bid. They will be playing at least 4 out-of-conference teams ranked ahead of them in Trinity (Tx), Kenyon, Wash U, and one or two other teams from the Stag-Hen. They also play CMU and Salisbury, who are ranked below them but offer good competition and some opportunities for indirect wins. If I'm a Polar Bear, however, I'm really concerned about the CMU match. Because of the wacky NESCAC rule that says they can't play until March, it will be their first match of the season, and it will be played outdoors in the toasty California sun. The Polar Bears didn't thrive in California last year, and a loss could be devastating for their Pool C chances. We saw how close they came to getting upset by MIT and Skidmore last year, so we know that it's possible. On the other hand, they undoubtedly played their best tennis in the Northeast last year, so I would say their best opportunity to pull off a massive upset is at home against Williams on April 28th. The match could have some serious NESCAC seeding implications, so both teams should be fired up.

Prediction


Bowdoin's recruiting class is good, and they have great senior leadership, but I feel like Sullivan was too valuable to them last year, and I think they'll struggle a little bit at the beginning of the year without him, as they try to put together cohesive doubles teams. I think they will get upset by CMU because of lack of match experience, and then, they will have to press to get their Pool C bid back the rest of the trip. I think their only chance to make the tournament is by leapfrogging someone in the NESCAC standings, which they will have to do by beating Middlebury on the road or Williams at home, because if they end up with the #4 seed in the NESCAC, they have no chance to get past Amherst. I like the Polar Bears, and I hate the NCAA system, but I think they might get shafted again this season. I kinda hope they prove me wrong.

Season Preview #13: Johns Hopkins

#13 Johns Hopkins

Andy Hersh

General Discussion


Last year, Hopkins looked like a top 10 team on paper, but they never put it all together (partially because they only had a few chances against top-ranked teams). This year, they look absolutely ridiculous on paper, but everyone will be watching to see if they fall apart in May again. The Blue Jays return 4 starters from last year's Sweet Sixteen team, and they add a recruiting class that would make a pretty solid Division I team. We might have to wait a year or two before this recruiting class puts Hopkins in the national championship picture, but if one or two of these recruits are good enough to significantly improve the singles lineup, we can expect to see these guys cracking the top 10 this year pretty easily. I wonder how the returning players will respond to having younger players challenging them for their spots. Best case scenario: the freshmen push the upperclassmen to knew heights, and the Blue Jays find themselves in the top 5 at the end of the year.

Where They'll Win


Hopkins played so few significant matches last year that it's difficult to say where they were strong and where they were weak. Add in the new freshmen, and we have almost no idea what the Jays' lineup will look like this year. Against Amherst this Fall, four of the freshmen were in the singles lineup. The match was competetive, and they Blue Jays managed to win some matches at the bottom of the singles lineup. Amherst was missing 3 of its top 4 players, but that's still an impressive feat. Accordingly, I think we can expect depth to be Hopkins' strength

Where They'll Lose


Hersh had a great Fall, finishing 4th in Mobile and taking a set of Fritz in their dual match with Amherst, but whether he can consistently beat the #1's from other top schools remains to be seen. Still, I would not say that the Blue Jays are weak at the top of their singles lineup. Last year, they played extremely close with Pottish-Goodwin-Egan and won at #2 and #3 against NCW. I also wouldn't say doubles is a weakness. Though they got swept by Williams, they actually won two out of three doubles matches in their other two D3 losses last year. (I don't know if I can get away with this or not, but I'm saying it anyways) With Hopkins, it's not so much "Where they'll lose" but "When they'll lose." Last two years, they laid an egg in the Sweet Sixteen. Maybe the best advice for beating Hopkins is to play them in NCAAs...

Schedule Analysis


Hopkins didn't play very many matches against schools ranked above or near them last year, and that might be part of the reason they didn't play very well in NCAAs. Maybe they weren't used to the pressure. That shouldn't be a problem this year. They play all the same schools they played last year (Emory, CMU, NCW, Bates), but they add to that three invaluable matches in the Stag-Hen. I think it will be good for them to play big matches against big teams on a big stage in the tournament setting. They might struggle in the Stag-Hen because of weather/time zone/freshman growing pains, but it will pay off in the long run. The match I'm really looking forward too, ironically, is their second match of the season. In the last two years, the Blue Jays have suffered painful losses to NCW, so they will be extremely hungry to beat them this year, especially in Baltimore. If the Jays can win that one, I think it sets the tone for an incredible season that will land them in the top 10.

Prediction


I think the Blue Jays will start off the season with an emotional victory over NCW, but then struggle in the Stag-Hen. Despite that, I think this is the year they finally make the Elite Eight, but I don't think they'll go any further than that. It will take a year or two for these freshmen to realize their full potential, and with the commits Hopkins already has for next year, the Blue Jays will be competing for a national championship very soon.

Season Preview #12: North Carolina Weslyan

#12 North Carolina Weslyan


General Discussion


NCW is kind of an enigma within Division 3 tennis. The school isn't known for strong academics like pretty much all of the other schools in the top 15. They recruit international players like a D1 school, and they seem not to care too much about doubles (like a D1 school). The only problem with that is that their international players aren't as good as the ones at Baylor, and D3 uses a 9-point scoring system, so doubles sort of matters. Sorry, that sounds meaner than it was meant to be. I have a ton of respect for NCW for breaking the mold and finding a way to be successful in a D3 environment that would normally doom a school like NCW to obscurity. While the Battling Bishops have had tremendous success, they still aren't living up to the lofty expectations they set for themselves. Two years ago, I remember some of NCW's players complaining that they never got the chance to prove how good they were because other schools were ducking them, but when they got the opportunity to play them at Indoors last year, they didn't exactly deliver. Now, they've entrenched themselves in the D3 elite, and they don't have to worry about scheduling problems anymore. If they don't live up to their expectations this year, they'll have nobody to blame but themselves.


Where They'll Win


NCW lost their #1 singles player from last year, but I'm pretty sure the story on them is the same as it has been. They will be strong in singles, especially in the middle of the lineup. They went 12-3 in the 4-6 spots against top 25 teams last year, and, even though their #4 and #5 (Lemongo and Sonn) will have to play one spot higher, I think that will be offset by a year of practice. It's hard for me to gauge their recruiting class or whether the players coming off their bench are capable because they are all international, and, therefore, don't have junior records that are easily accessible or decipherable by me. Nonetheless, I would guess that their roster is a lot like any other D3 team's roster, and they have some hungry players ready to fill in at the #5 and #6 spots


Where They'll Lose


This one is pretty easy. The Battling Bishops always struggle in doubles. It was more pronounced two years ago than it was last year, which indicates that they are working on it, but they still didn't do very well in doubles last year. They lost two out of three against JHU and Trinity, and got swept by Emory and Wash U. But the match against JHU shows what they can do if they can just keep the match close. Still, Hopkins isn't exactly a notoriously good doubles team, and if the Bishops want to make the next step, they will have to start winning doubles matches. Their #1 team won the ITA regional tournament, so that is a nice little ray of hope for them, but they will need to win two or three doubles matches if they want to upset someone like Emory or Wash U. Right now, it doesn't look like they can do that.

Schedule Analysis


Because they don't have Indoors this year, the Battling Bishops' success will be largely dependent on an important few regular season matches. They start off with Case and Kenyon in early February, as the Lords get ready for Indoors. Around spring break, they have their rematch with Hopkins, and a tough match against Chicago in Hilton Head. They're also traveling to Fredericksburg to play Mary Washington and CMU. It's a tough schedule: a lot of teams that could upset them and very few opportunities to improve their ranking. In the end, they might drop a few ranking points, but they will definitely be battle-tested come tourney time.

Prediction


Since I have no info on their recruiting class, this is particularly difficult. They could completely fall off because they have nobody good enough to play #5 and #6 (Cal Lu from last year rings a bell). Regardless, I see them getting "upset" by JHU because of that massive recruiting class, and, based on their struggles indoors last year, I think they will definitely lose to Kenyon and might actually lose to CMU or Mary Washington. Nevertheless, they will win their conference, and the only thing that really matters is if they can play the match of their life in the Sweet Sixteen against (probably) Emory, or get a good draw and beat Hopkins. Unfortunately, I think the season will end in the Sweet Sixteen for the Battling Bishops


Schedule Analysis


Prediction

Season Preview #11: Chicago

#11 Chicago

General Discussion


2011 was somewhat of a break out year for the Maroons. They finally shed their "talented but unsuccessful" label, beat Wash U, and made the NCAA tournament via Pool C, which is a hell of an accomplishment. Personally, however, I feel like that "success" is somewhat overstated. A team with six 4-stars on their roster, along with a couple 3-stars and a few talented international players should not be ranked outside of the top ten. Chicago has always been notorious for behaving like thugs on the court, and, even though they like to think of themselves as the most intimidating team in D3, I don't think their behavior is helping them. One of their players actually walked out on a match against Brandeis two years ago, which might have cost them a trip to the NCAAs. Objectively, it's really sad that a player would give up on his team like that, but for the teams in D3 that hate Chicago, that was hilarious. The Maroons have an interim head coach this year, and it's possible that Coach Bertrand will put an end to those antics. If she does, maybe the Maroons will start finally living up to their potential. I don't know if the attitude is actually to blame for the fact that Chicago continues to underperform, but, while they may not be the most intimidating team to play against, they are definitely one of the most mystifying story lines in D3.

Unlike the other teams I've been previewing, the Maroons have actually played a competitive match this Spring already. Even though it wasn't against a fellow D3 team, their match against Illinois (Chicago) should indicate what their lineup will look like this year. They lost their #1 player from last year in Will Zhang, but that might actually not hurt them that much. While Zhang was capable of beating anyone in D3, he also had a reputation for cramping and could lose to anyone also. They return the rest of their lineup, and it looks like Brinker might be taking up the mantle at #1 singles.

Where They'll Win


That was a long intro, so I'll keep this brief. The Maroons were much stronger at the bottom of their lineup last year than they were at the top. In fact, Stefanski was damn near undefeated playing #5 and #6. I don't want to call that a stack. Instead, I would say that's just what happens when you have enough 4-stars on your roster to slate a couple of them in the bottom positions. Though Chicago might get weaker at the top this year due to Zhang's graduation, they should remain just as deep, as they've added a 4-star freshman, who started at #5 in the first match. Not even the top teams in the country should bank on beating the Maroons in the 4-6 singles spots because they have the depth to match anyone.

Where They'll Lose


Maybe I'm putting too much weight on the CMU match from last year, but it seems like the Maroons were pretty vulnerable at the top positions last year. Sure, Zhang and Szabo were capable of picking off some of the top ranked players, but they lost most matches against the bigger names. Without Zhang, that could be an even bigger problem for Chicago. Hopefully for the Maroons, the talented sophomores will have benefitted from their first year of college tennis, and are ready to make a leap. If not, they will still be very beatable at the top.

Schedule Analysis


Chicago has pretty much the same schedule as they had last year, with the huge addition of Indoors. They have to avoid the early season upset this year against either Kalamazoo or Wisconsin-Whitewater. (Neither team should be anywhere close to the Maroons, but Chicago almost lost to Denison last year, so anything is possible). Such a loss would be devastating to their Pool C chances. Chicago's first round opponent at Indoors should be very familiar. It's Wash U. I would predict that Wash U would win that one, barring a doubles sweep, which would leave Chicago in their biggest match of the year against the loser of Trinity/Cruz. If Chicago can win that match, they can basically assure themselves of a Pool C bid, as long as they can "hold serve" the rest of the season, so to speak. If they can't get that one, they will have to hope for an upset in the UAA championship, or a situation where they pick up some indirect wins by beating CMU.

Prediction


You'll notice that I didn't mention doubles in the strengths/weaknesses section. That's because they were so inconsistent last year that it's impossible to designate doubles as either for the Maroons. Nonetheless, their success this year will be largely dependent on their ability to put together one great doubles match. Their season-defining victory against Wash U last year happened largely because of a doubles sweep, but they also almost lost their Pool C bid when they were swept by Depauw and beaten by Denison. It will take more consistent doubles play for the Maroons to keep their ranking and their Pool C bid, because they probably won't be able to recover from a doubles sweep again this year. As for the prediction, I think either CMU, Redlands, or Depauw is going to leapfrog Chicago and steal their Pool C bid, leaving Chicago back where they were two years ago: in the top 20, but not in the tournament.

Season Preview #10: Trinity (Tx)

#10 Trinity (Tx)

Max Frey (Sr.)

General Discussion


The Tigers had huge expectations for themselves last year, and I think it's safe to say that they didn't really live up to them. At the end of the 2010 season, they were playing really good doubles, and appeared capable of sweeping any team in the country. They probably thought that would continue, as they returned their four-time all-American doubles team of Cocanougher/Kowal along with pretty much the rest of their lineup, but things didn't pan out. They got swept in their quad at home with Wash U, CMS, and Cruz, and I know they were expecting to take at least two of those matches. Perhaps even more telling was their result in the Stag-Hen, where they went in as the #3 seed and ended up finishing 6th. Regardless, they pulled it together at the end of the season enough to beat Chicago and advance to the Elite Eight yet again, but they failed to make the next step to the Final Four. Trinity has an advantage when it comes to NCAAs in that they don't have to compete in either the brutal California regional or one of the comparably competitive New England regionals, so they typically only have to beat a team like Chicago or Gustavus to make it to the Elite Eight. (I don't say that to diminish their accomplishment or to put down Chicago. It's just a little easier to beat Chicago once than it is to beat Cruz and CMS on back to back days). Trinity lost two singles starters and a third doubles starter to graduation last year, though they brought in a solid recruiting class. Nonetheless, I think the only way they improve on last year is if they somehow perform better without the burden of expectations. I don't think that's how tennis actually works, and I think they'll have a down year.

Where They'll Win


As I mentioned before, Trinity is known for playing good doubles. Last year was no different. They took two out of three doubles against Claremont, Wash U, and Pomona, and failed to capitalize. They did, however, ride strong doubles performances to wins against NCW, Mary Washington, Bowdoin, and Depauw. I think the take home message is that their doubles teams can consistently hang with and beat basically anyone in the country, but their singles lineup is that of a team ranked in the 15-20 range. How else can you explain them dropping two singles matches to Gustavus?

Where They'll Lose


Speaking of singles... Frey is obviously a legitimate #1 singles player--he got to the semis of the NCAA individual tournament, after all--, but the rest of the lineup is going to be relatively weak. They return DelaFuente, and he will probably be a serviceable #2, but they're going to have a hard time finding players to capably fill the rest of the singles spots. They had trouble remaining competitive at #4-6 against the top teams last year (see matches against P-P, NCW, Bowdoin, Amherst, Claremont, and Wash U), and that should be even more of a problem this year. The only way for these guys to knock off top 10 teams is to follow the 2010 Cal Lu formula: win doubles, win the top two singles spots, and find a W somewhere else in the lineup.

Schedule Analysis


Once again, Trinity is playing Indoors and making a California trip, but instead of playing the Stag-Hen, they just have matches scheduled against P-P, Cal Lu, Redlands, Skidmore, and Bowdoin. Last year, they came up short against Cruz in the first round of indoors, but recovered nicely. If they can do the same this year, it would be even better, because that would mean beating Chicago and either Kenyon or P-P. Instead, I think they will probably go 1-2 at Indoors with a victory over Chicago. For their California trip, I would keep an eye on the Cal Lu match as a possible upset. Cal Lu is strong in the same places as Trinity, and they might be even stronger at the bottom positions, so if they can take one of the top two singles spots, they can win. Trinity's conference has gotten easier with the departure of Depauw, so they are basically a lock to make NCAAs, and they might sneak into the Elite Eight again, thanks to a relatively easy region. The success of their season will probably be determined by a potential Sweet Sixteen match against Chicago or CMU.

Prediction


Trinity has been in the top 10 for the past couple years, but it's hard for any team to recover from losing two key players like Cocanougher and Kowal in the same year. I think that will effect them, and they will fail to make the Elite Eight. Along the way, however, I expect them to get at least one win against a top 8 team by playing hot doubles. Cruz and P-P might be ripe for the upset.

Season Preview #9: Middlebury

#9 Middlebury

General Discussion


Middlebury is only two years removed from its dominant 2010 National Championship team, but everything has changed. None of the starters from that team are still around, and they have a new coach with a completely new philosophy. Hansen is the Phil Jackson of Divison 3 tennis, and you gotta wonder how the New Englanders will respond to the Zen Master. Having a legendary coach is good, but returning 5 out of 6 starters from a top 10 team is probably better. Peters' graduation leaves a hole that needs to be filled, but Hansen's teams are notoriously hard-working, and I would bet that all that hard work in the off season will have an immediate effect on at least one of the returning starters (Parower and Jones both had solid Fall seasons and are good candidates). The Panthers also brought in two Freshmen who could make an immediate impact. Last year, these same players went up against the very same Amherst lineup and came up short. Will a new coach be enough to bridge the gap between the Panthers and the Lord Jeffs? Or will Middlebury find themselves fighting with Williams for the right to play second fiddle?

Where They'll Win


Middlebury was consistently strong in doubles last year. They won at least 2 doubles matches against every team ranked below them except Redlands (a team that sneakily had great doubles last year), and rode a doubles sweep to a victory over Williams. Hansen's teams have always had strong doubles, so I would expect that trend to continue. They also won two matches low in the lineup against Amherst, which is pretty indicative of how deep a team they are. Since they return 5 starters and have a couple 4-stars on the bench, they will also be incredibly deep this year. If I'm wrong, we'll find out immediately when they jump into their NESCAC schedule.

Where They'll Lose


The Panthers will definitely be weaker at the top this year. Peters was a great #1, as you can see from his victories over Sullivan and Sun, but he's gone now. Even with Peters, Middlebury had difficulty finding wins at the top of their lineup against good teams-- see their matches against Cal Lu, Azusa Pacific, and Amherst. Middlebury might have done fine at the top of their lineup against lesser teams, but they will need to win some matches at the top of the lineup against Amherst if they want to get back the NESCAC crown. If that's going to happen, the players like Parower and Jones need to improve immensely, because past results indicate that they just aren't good enough.

Schedule Analysis


Obviously, Middlebury doesn't start its season until March because of the weird NESCAC rule, but they will have to hit the ground running. Their first matches big matches are against Hansen's old nemeses P-P and CMS. I don't expect them to beat CMS, but they might squeak out a victory against P-P; most NESCAC teams have historical struggled starting their seasons in California without match experience. After that, they jump into their NESCAC schedule, where we will really see what they are made of. If there were ever a year for Bowdoin to fight their way into the NESCAC's top 3, it would be this year because Middlebury might experience some growing pains. On the other hand, Middlebury might thrive in the new system, and maybe I should be looking forward to a potential Sweet Sixteen match against Williams.

Prediction


I really don't want to try to make a prediction for this team, because Hansen on the East coast could go either way. I'm going to trust my basic mathematic instincts: good players + good coach = great team. They'll sweep Bowdoin, beat P-P, beat Williams at least once, and push Amherst, but this team needs one more year to grow before it's ready to challenge for a national championship again.

Season Preview #8: Pomona-Pitzer

#8 Pomona-Pitzer


General Discussion


Some have compared last year's P-P team to the previous year's Cal Lu team, and in a lot of ways, the comparison is apt. Both teams leapfrogged two SCIAC competitors to earn an elusive Pool C bid and finished in the top 10. Unfortunately, both teams also made huge improvements only to get dominated by Cruz in the California regional. Hopefully, the similarities stop there, because if they don't, then the Sagehens are about to get upset by Gustavus and Tommy Meyer is about to suffer a season-ending injury (knock on wood). Fortunately, that's not going to happen. The way I see it, P-P's big 2011 season has been a long time coming. When they finally broke through, they did so in a big way, chalking up wins over both Trinitys, Bowdoin, Williams, and, the one team that they absolutely have to beat to make the tournament, Redlands. As great as their season was, they will always be in the brutal California regional, and, even though they could beat Cruz, they still have a long way to go to topple CMS. Belletto is a great coach, and I think one of his teams will get there eventually, but they aren't there yet. I think their job this year should be to consolidate the progress they made last year, and get another Pool C bid.

Where They'll Win


The Hens return all of their starters except their #6 singles player, and they are deep enough that that shouldn't have much of an effect, especially if you take into account their solid recruiting class. When I look at their results from last year, however, I'm really confused. For most of the season, they looked much stronger in singles than doubles, winning from behind against Trinity (Tx), Williams, and Redlands twice, but they also took two out of three against Emory and Cruz. Nevertheless, experience has taught me that winning a match after losing in doubles is difficult, so their singles must be tough, especially mentally. With another year of practice, their already formidable singles lineup should be even tougher. Meyer and Weichert are obviously great players, but they aren't quite as good as some of the other duos out there, so I think the Hens will be most successful in the middle of their lineup. Singh, Allinson, and Sabel all have a ton of experience, and they have consistently gotten better over the course of their careers, and I think they are all in line to have huge 2012 seasons.

Where They'll Lose


Despite what I said above about their strong doubles against Emory and Cruz (and I didn't even mention their sweep against Bowdoin), I think that if they are going to get beaten by a lesser team, it's going to be because of their tendency to have a bad doubles match every once in a while. They very nearly lost to Redlands last year, which would have been disastrous for their NCAA hopes, and it was because they were down after doubles. They will also need to win doubles if they want to beat CMS, which is something that they didn't do last year. I don't want to harp on this, because they also played some really strong doubles matches, but I'm a huge proponent of the importance of doubles in Division 3 tennis, and I'm the one with the keyboard.

Schedule Analysis


The Hens open their season with their first trip to Indoors. Cal Lu seemed to have some issues adjusting to the indoor courts last year, and the Hens might have the same problem. One thing is for certain, their first round opponent, Kenyon, will have nothing to adjust to. As always, their schedule is loaded with ranked teams, which should help them at the end of the season. Unfortunately, they don't play Cruz, but they do play their normal conference match against Claremont, and that's the match I'll be looking at for the Hens. That regular season match will be the best indicator of whether or not they have a chance to make a magical run at nationals. I don't have much else to say about this team, so let's put an end to this lackluster post!

Prediction


While I don't think last season was a fluke for the Hens, I think they will drop off a little bit this year. I think they'll struggle to make the adjustment to indoor tennis and lose a couple matches at Indoors. Even though they will get a couple good wins, I think their tough schedule will wear them down, and they will eventually lose a match to a team that they're better than (like Redlands or Cal Lu). In the end, I think they will get their Pool C bid, and finish the season somewhere in the 10-12 range.

Season Preview #7: Kenyon

#7 Kenyon


General Discussion


People like to talk about Kenyon like they're the little team that could, but just because they didn't have any 4- or 5-stars on their roster last year doesn't mean that they don't get talented recruits. Last year, they had six 3-stars on their roster, and all of them had at least one year of college experience. As we've learned from some of the more prestigious schools on the East Coast, sometimes one or two really good recruits don't pan out, but when you have the kind of depth in recruiting that Kenyon has, at least one of them will always improve tremendously over the course of their career and turn into a really solid player, i.e. Polster. The Lords may have lost Polster from last year's team, but they return the rest of their starting lineup, and they add an immensely talented recruiting class that includes two 4-stars. They did a great job last year, but this year could be even better. The question is: can they improve enough to make the leap into the Final Four? With the possible decline of Wash U, they might.

Where They'll Win


From their results last year, it seems that the Lords don't have any definitive strengths or weaknesses in their singles lineup, but one area where they are definitely strong is doubles. They won at least two doubles matches against Chicago, CMU, CLU, Case, Mary Washington, and Wash U. That's pretty impressive. Their singles lineup is solid enough that if they can take two doubles matches, they will find three wins against any team outside the top 5. The problem is that their singles, overall, isn't as strong as their doubles, which brings me too...

Where They'll Lose


While last year's Lords were not especially weak at any individual singles position, they were not especially strong anywhere either. That is both a blessing and a curse: everyone in the lineup knew that they had to fight for every single match, but they didn't really have one position that they could count on for consistent wins. I think that could change this year. Kenyon brought in such a strong recruiting class that they should be exceptionally deep, so their #5 and #6 positions should be exceptionally strong. That means that their weak point will be the top of the lineup. While Burgin and Williams seems to have made strides, they might not be ready to beat, for example, Lane and Erani, which is what they'll need to do if they want to make the Final Four.

Schedule Analysis


Kenyon's schedule is fantastic. They will play plenty of top 10 teams and a whole slew of teams in the second tier (which, as far as I'm concerned, goes from about 14-30 with the drop off coming after Bowdoin). They're not so good that they can afford to let down against the lower tier teams, so they will have to push themselves throughout the entire season. With regard to individual matches, I see them having to work hard to defend their ranking against NCW, Cal Lu, and Bowdoin; whereas, they have the opportunity to improve their ranking at Indoors, against UCSC, and at the Stag-Hen. Against NCW, Cal Lu, and Bowdoin, they should take the lead in doubles and never look back, but I'm really looking forward to a potential match against Emory, Wash U, or Claremont. Because the Slugs are such a question mark this year, only a match against one of those three would be the proper indicator as to whether or not Kenyon is capable of making the Final Four this year.

Prediction


There's not much point in analyzing this stuff if you don't stick your neck out every now and then. I think Kenyon is the team that usurps Wash U and take the Final Four spot. I know I said something like that for another team, but I really think Kenyon is very much improved. They are a hard-working team with great facilities, good senior leadership, and a youthful push. 3rd place finish for the Lords

Season Preview #6: Santa Cruz

#6 Santa Cruz


General Discussion


I'm trying to think if there have been any big, catalytic changes for the Santa Cruz tennis team between last year and this year, but for some reason I can't think of any... Oh wait, there's that whole thing where their legendary coach, Bob Hansen, left for Middlebury. That might have an effect on the program. In all seriousness, however, I don't think the effect of Hansen leaving will be felt by Santa Cruz this year. The team is still made up of players who were recruited by Hansen, and, for the most part, have experience in his system. Additionally, new coach Bryce Parmelly has a decade of experience as some part of the Santa Cruz team, and you might have heard of their two assistant coaches, Seeburger and Pybas. I think there is plenty of Hansen left behind on this team to make them very successful this year. They return 5 of their singles starters, two more doubles starters, and they brought in a talented transfer from UCSB in Devin Nurenberg, but it's difficult to recover from losing someone like Pybas. The results from the Fall also suggest that the Slugs will have a hard time keeping up with Claremont this year, but Santa Cruz practices harder than anybody, and it's hard guess how much they will have improved from a semester's worth of practicing. Not sure what else to say about the Slugs. They've always won by using their 2 and 3-stars to beat everyone else's 4 and 5-stars, and if they're going to have a good year this year, they're going to have to do it again.

Where They'll Win


Doubles has always been a strength for Santa Cruz, and I think that will continue this year. Two years ago, they won Indoors by sweeping doubles in every match, and finding two wins somewhere in the singles lineup. If they're going to beat any top 5 teams this year, that's the formula they're going to have to follow. (Though last year they beat CMS by taking the top 4 singles spots, I don't think that will happen again). In singles, while the Slugs certainly have good players at the top in Koenig, Nurenberg, and Larsen, I think they are definitely stronger at the bottom. They always have hungry, hard working players that overachieve filling out their roster, and they can definitely surprise some of the top teams at these spots.

Where They'll Lose


It looks like the Slugs are going to be weak at the top this year. It's not a good sign when your star transfer loses to your rival's third best freshman, nor is it a good sign when your best returning player loses to your rival's #6 singles player. Also, where is Larsen? He played in the Fall, but he's not on their roster right now. If they lose him, they will be even weaker at the #3 spot, and their doubles will suffer significantly. On paper, Santa Cruz doesn't really look like an elite team, but they've always been able to beat teams that look better than them on paper in the past. Hopefully, they can do it this year too, but they're going to have a hard time if they can't win at the top 3 positions. To have a good season, the Slugs desperately need either Nurenberg or Koenig to fill the massive hole left by Pybas' graduation.

Schedule Analysis


Cruz has an early season match against Whitman, which shouldn't be much of a problem, but it will give them more indoor experience heading into their first round match against Trinity at Indoors. The Trinity match will be massive in terms of establishing momentum for the whole season, and quelling lingering questions about the coaching switch. They could win that match and then lose to the next two and consider Indoors a success. After that, they have home matches against Kenyon and Claremont. I know they really want to beat Claremont, but I just don't know if that can happen this year. Nevertheless, the CMS match will likely determine who hosts the brutal California regional for nationals this year, which might be Santa Cruz' only chance to make it to the Elite Eight, even though I think home court advantage is overrated. After that, they road trip to So Cal to play Redlands and Williams. The match against Redlands is huge because all Redlands really needs is one big win to get into pool C, and Cruz might be ripe for an upset this year, but the Williams match isn't all that important in the big picture of nationals. The Slugs have plenty of good matches on their schedule, but in the grand scheme of things, Cruz will need to beat CMS at the end of the year to get back to the Elite Eight, and all of their other matches are just preparation for that one.

Prediction


Despite the intangibles, I think Cruz will have a down year this year. They will find a way to beat a weakened Trinity team, and maybe even end up finishing 3rd at Indoors. They might beat Kenyon, but I don't see them beating CMS or Williams, and they will eventually get knocked out in the Sweet Sixteen, though they will probably give Claremont a run for their money as they always do. The Slugs have always succeeded by developing their players, but if they're going to succeed in the new D3 environment, they're going to have to find a way to start getting some 4 or 5-star recruits.

Season Preview #5: CMS

#5 CMS


General Discussion


There are couple ways to look at CMS' 2010-2011. The first and most prominent way is to look at it and say, "Look, they blew 7 match points at NCAAs again, and this time they did it on their home courts. These guys are choke artists." The second and more optimistic way is to look at it and say, "Well, the finally managed to beat Santa Cruz at UCSC, so maybe they've gotten that monkey off their back. Also, we learned from Amherst that taking that final step from contender to champion can be a painful and arduous process." Personally, I would love to say that the Stags are choke artists, but I'm more inclined to take the second route. This team took a couple steps forward last year, and this might be the year they win the national championship. They return perhaps the best 1-2-3 punch in the country in Lane, Erani, and Johnson, and while they'll miss the rock solid performances of Wu and Brockett, something tells me they'll get over it. That "something," in this case, is the cumulative Fall performance their Freshmen Wood, Marino, and (especially) Bernhardt. In addition to these new faces, they also return doubles specialists Pereverzin and Wei along with talented but underrated players like Chien and Cahill. This team is stacked. There's no doubt about it, but it's championship or bust for Settles' squad. Is this their year?

Where They'll Win


Lane has proven himself to be one of the best players in the nation. Erani proved himself to be one of the best players in the nation two years ago, and now he's going to play two or three. Johnson showed that he's also capable of beating anyone in the country (though less consistently). While Claremont definitely has phenomenal depth, they'll have to replace their old stalwarts with unproven talent. Until the freshman step in and prove that they can win (which I think they will), I'm going to have to say that the Stags are stronger at the top for now. Perhaps, as the year progresses, their depth will turn out to be their strength, but they say experience wins championships. It's true that CMS lost a lot of matches in the top positions early last year, but that was before Erani came back from his injury. At the end of the year they did very well at the top against P-P, Cal Lu, UCSC, and Williams.

Where They'll Lose


Because they only lost three D3 matches last year, it's hard to say where the Stags are vulnerable, but I think the best way to beat CMS is by using the Santa Cruz formula from the past decade. Jump on them in doubles, and find a way to win a few singles matches. That's how Emory and Williams beat them, at least. It's really hard to say how the freshmen will fit into CMS' doubles lineup, but the Stags might actually be relatively weak in doubles this year. They lost Wu, who was probably their best doubles player, and it seems like they've always had a little bit of trouble coming up with cohesive doubles teams. Maybe it's because their roster is filled with California grinders (hence two guys from Oregon being two of their best doubles players), but that's just speculation. Regardless, if your name isn't Amherst and you want to beat CMS, you will have to beat them in doubles. (That probably sounds familiar, but sweeping doubles is basically the only way for a lesser team to pull off a big upset. Remember Cal Lu from two years ago? I do).

Schedule Analysis


Well, Claremont has a great schedule, as always, and they hardly have to leave their driveway. One of their most interesting matches to me, however, is their road match against Santa Cruz. Can they prove their superiority by beating them in SC twice in a row? If so, they could establish their own little California dynasty.

Season Preview #4: Williams

#4 Williams


General Discussion


Let me start off by saying I love this team. I've never seen them play, but you gotta love any team that has enough heart to save seven match points against one of the best teams in the nation on the road. Williams' 5-4 victory over CMS would have been great even if it didn't take them to the Final Four for the first time in a couple years while simultaneously dispelling the myth that Greenberg had been promoted beyond his competency, but it did. Plus, their mascot is the Purple Cows. That's awesome. In all seriousness, Williams had a great season last year. The only problem was that Amherst had a better season, and, even though Williams returns all of its starters from last year and adds another talented freshman, they will likely spend this year playing little brother to Amherst as well. If they want to win a national championship, they're going to have to do what they came so close to doing in the regular season last year, beat Amherst. I don't think it's going to happen, but the Fall season offered a faint glimmer of hope. Their #1 doubles team of Bryan Chow and Richard Meyer won the New England region against some (but not all) of Amherst's best players, then proceeded to win the whole D3 tournament, and even win their first round in the Super Bowl. That's impressive. Anyways, let's move on...

Where They'll Win


I'm sure that I'm starting to sounds like a broken record, but it's difficult to find a definite strength or weakness on this team. Solely judging from their matches against P-P, CMS, and Amherst, it seems like the bottom half of their singles lineup is their strength, and this year, they figure to be even better. They destroyed the bottom half of P-P's singles lineup, hung tough at the bottom in all three matches against Amherst, and beat CMS at 5 and 6, which means they out-depthed the supposed deepest team in the country. Simply put, I don't think they're going to lose very many matches at 4-6 singles.

Where They'll Lose


I don't mean to pick on Sun and Micheli, because they are absolute studs, but I think they are a little outmatched when they play the best players in D3. They always beat players that they should beat, but I just don't see Sun and Micheli taking out Pottish/Goodwin or Rattenhuber/Kahan (though they came really close to doing just that in the regular season). With respect to doubles, they are an absolute mystery. I would like to say that they are strong in doubles, given Chow and Meyer's results from the Fall and the fact that they took 2 out of three from CMS and Amherst. But they also lost 2 out of 3 to P-P and Bowdoin, and they were swept by Middlebury. I'll just chalk it up to the fact that prosets are unpredictable, but I will add that if you play these guys on a bad doubles day, they are beatable.

Schedule Analysis


The Purple Cows' schedule isn't on their team site, but we know that they have an exciting match against CMS in March. I see that as the ultimate f-you match for CMS, and I think Williams is likely going to get destroyed. Then, they have their regular season matches against Bowdoin, Amherst, Middlebury, and Trinity that all figure to be tight. While Williams could surprise Amherst and Bowdoin could surprise Williams, I'll be keeping my eye on the Williams/Middlebury matches. These matches will be a good indicator of how the Hansen-Middlebury team is doing and determine who will be playing second fiddle to Amherst, as well as have some impact on NCAA seeding.

Prediction


Though I admire Hansen and like Middlebury's team, I think this is the year that Williams puts some distance between itself and the rest of the NESCAC. I see them handling Bowdoin easily and beating Middlebury, but, ultimately, I don't think they can beat Amherst. I think a Final Four appearance is in the works for these guys, and, perhaps a 3rd place finish over Emory, but nothing more than that.

Season Preview #3: Wash U

#3 Wash U

General Discussion


It's always interesting to see how a prominent team responds to losing a couple star players. Wash U won't be any different this year. They lost their top two players in Stein and Woods, and conventional wisdom suggests that this should be a down year for the Bears. I'm not convinced. Adam Putterman performed remakably in the Fall tournament, beating Joey Fritz and Alex Lane on his way to a second place finish, so it doesn't seem like Wash U will be lacking a star at the top. They also have a talented coach, a deep roster, and a particularly good recruiting class, so I don't think this will be a down year at all. Getting back to the final four will be a challenge because they will likely have to get past an improved Kenyon team to do it, but I think it's possible, if not likely.

Where They'll Win


Looking at their results from last year, it's really difficult to say where these guys are the strongest. Sometimes, their stars pulled them through, but in their wins over Santa Cruz and Trinity in the quad, however, it was the middle of the singles lineup that pulled them back from doubles deficits. Will the middle of the lineup remain a strength as the 3-6 singles players shift up? Will their 5 and 6 spots take a hit? I think some of the new freshmen will step in capably at the bottom of the lineup, and the middle will still be the strength of this team as the 4, 5, and 6 players from last year will be playing with an extra year of experience. Overall, this team is equally strong from top to bottom, but opponents will be particularly hard-pressed to win in the middle.

Where They'll Lose


Wash U's one big loss last year to Chicago came courtesy of a doubles sweep. They also fell behind in doubles against Trinity, Kenyon, and Santa Cruz (the second time), so doubles has to be this team's weakness. Interestingly, they managed to take two out of three doubles against Emory at Indoors, and they swept Williams, so they are clearly capable of playing good doubles, which, by ranking, was their best win of the year. Accordingly, I think the Bears' success this season will be determined by how well they play doubles. They can probably win three singles matches against anyone in the country, so the best way to beat them is to jump on them in dubs. Finally, I wonder how Adam Putterman will respond to the pressures of playing #1 over the course of the whole season. It can be a grind playing against the other team's best player every single match, especially if you start to lose some close matches.

Schedule Analysis


Once again, the Bears will start of their D3 schedule with Indoors, and I've already said that I predict a finals for them in that tournament. Things will get really interesting when they play Chicago the next week. I'm sure they will be looking to avenge last season's regular season loss (even though they beat Chicago handily in UAAs), but they will probably be playing a very different Chicago team under the new coach. After that, they travel to California for Spring Break, where they have an interesting match against Bowdoin. They also have a measuring-stick match against Case Western, where we'll get to see how that team has progressed, and they finish up with UAA's and NCAA's.

Prediction


For the Bears: a second place finish at Indoors and UAAs, a cakewalk to the Elite Eight, and a surprising Elite Eight loss to an emerging team like Middlebury or JHU (that team has to make a run eventually, right?). I hate to go against proven winners, but I think this is the year they finally fail to make the Final Four.

Season Preview #2: Emory

#2 Emory


General Discussion


Emory. Let's see; there are a lot of ways to cover this one. Psych! I could have sworn that Pottish was out of eligibility, but any conversation of this year's Emory team has to start with Pottish and Goodwin. Emory has the two best players in the country, and it's almost like they start every single match up 2-0, and, as an opponent, it must be intimidating knowing you have to win 5 of the 7 remaining spots to win. Last year, it went a step further when they had Egan, who nearly went undefeated at #3 singles. Throw in Pottish/Egan at #3 doubles, and that is formidable no matter who fills out the rest of the lineup. The rhetoric on this team has always been that they are extremely arrogant. While they certainly deserve to be confident, I wonder if this attitude is holding them back, because they haven't won the National Championship that they think they deserve for the past five seasons. If they're going to pull it off this year, they're going to need more than Pottish and Goodwin. Fortunately, they have a big roster full of talented players, and we never know when one of them is going to make the leap into D3 stardom.

Where They'll Win


This one's easy. They will win at #1 and 2 singles, and if they insist on playing Pottish at #3 doubles, they will win there too. I know Pottish doesn't hit that hard, but his passing shots are ridiculous, he's deadly when you give him a target, and he's so match tough that anyone he plays at #3 doubles is completely outmatched. In the past, people have said that their doubles teams are vulnerable, but they also return Humphreys, which means they can keep the experienced doubles team of Goodwin/Humphreys that beat Amherst's #1 in the national championship match, so #1 doubles has to be a strong point as well. Beyond that, they return Szczurek, which will give them a very strong #3.

Where They'll Lose


If anyone's going to beat Emory, they're going to have to take advantage of the bottom half of their lineup. They lost both their #5 and #6 singles players, along with Egan, so theoretically, they will be vulnerable at numbers 4-6. The problem with that is that they have four extra 4-stars and several other players with a couple years of college practice under their belts waiting in the wings, so it's not like they're filling out these positions with scrubs. In fact, they're considerably deeper than any team outside the top 10 (or maybe even top 5), but the unpleasant truth is: if you're going to beat Emory, you need to win 2 out of 3 doubles and dominate the bottom half of the singles lineup. Good luck.

Schedule Discussion


Emory has pretty much the exact same schedule as last year: Indoors, Stag-Hen, Johns Hopkins, UAA's, NCAA's. The field for the Indoors is phenomenal, but, honestly, they will probably ease by the Gusties and the winner of Kenyon/P-P (even though Pomona gave them a run at the Stag-Hen last year, I think experience would give Emory a huge edge if they were to play at Indoors). They will most likely play Wash U in the finals--unless UCSC can bring back some of that 2010 magic-- and I just don't think the Bears can hang with Emory this year. The Stag-Hen will probably give them a rematch with CMS, which is a match I'm really looking forward to. I have to believe that Settles' squad will be fired up after last year's match, and it could be a preview of a potential NCAA semifinal match. As the d3tennis blogger pointed out, the match against JHU will be huge, but it's more important for the Bluejays as a measuring stick/proving ground than it is for Emory.

Prediction


Past events are the best predictor of future events, right? Emory will win Indoors, the Stag-Hen, and UAA's. Then, they will fall in a heartbreaking match in the semifinals to a hungry Claremont team, and the deflated Emory team will follow it up with a lackluster loss in the 3rd/4th place match. Pottish will win the individual national championship, and someone else will help him out by taking Goodwin out in the quarters.

P.S I forgot to do a prediction for Amherst, but I think it goes without saying: National Championship

Season Preview #1: Amherst

Hello there loyal reader. I think there's no better way to prove that I really mean to provide the quantity of d3 tennis talk that you yearn for by doing a season preview for every team in the top 30. I have no idea what kind of algorithm the other guy used to determine the order for his team previews, but I figure I might as well start at the top and go from there. Here we go:

#1 Amherst

General Team Discussion

OK, where to start with these guys. Well, they're good. Really good. They won the national championship, and they returned everyone. Not only that, but they have a HUGE roster, which means the younger guys will be fighting the returning starters for the starting spots. Also, Garner is too good of a coach to let this team get complacent. Who knows where everybody will stack up this year, but former #1 Austin Chafetz lead the team to the championship match two years in a row, and he played #3 last year. Last year's #4, Joey Fritz, won the Northeast ITA Regional tournament (in large part because the top 3 were missing). That's absurd, and it says a lot about how good the team is. To the rest of the nation: good luck.

Where They'll Win


This team has the deadly combination of stars at the top and depth at the bottom. This is in no way a knock on Rattenhuber and Kahan, but I think they're best spots are 3-6. A couple D3 teams have some studs at the top of the lineup, so it is at least within the realm of possibility that a team like Emory could take #1 and #2, but I think numbers 3 through 6 are basically untouchable. Of course, every player has a bad day every now and then, but if you want to pull of an upset in college tennis, you have to pull of upsets in five individual matches on the same day. Once again: good luck.

Where They'll Lose


The short answer to this question is "nowhere," but we need something to talk about. I think it's general knowledge that if an upset is going to happen in division 3, it's going to be because of doubles. Amherst is in no way vulnerable in doubles, but Cal Lutheran showed us a couple years ago what can happen when a whole team gets hot in doubles. Just about the only way I can see this team losing is if some team comes out fired up in dubs, and manages to sweep them before they have a time to recover. If that team is Emory, then they can hope to get the top two spots for the win. If that team is Claremont, they will have to hope to pick off some wins throughout the lineup, because I think CMS is just about the only team that can dance with these guys from top to bottom.

Schedule Analysis


Just about the only interesting thing about Amherst's schedules is the fact that they start late. I'm excited to see their regular season match with CMS because I think it will be a preview of the national championship. I'm also interested to see how their match(es) with Middlebury will play out, but that's more because I'm interested to see what Hansen does with those East Coasters (if that's a word). Of course, the match(es) with Williams are also very important. Together, these three opponents will be the measuring stick for just how much Amherst is going to dominate the rest of the country this year. If they come out of the gates hot and throttle CMS, look out. Oh yeah, they've also got two 5-star commits for next year. Good for you, Amherst.

Welcome

Greetings d3tennis community. Welcome to this new blog. Here's my mission statement: I like to read about division 3 tennis, and I think there are a lot of people who do too. The other blog has been an excellent rallying point for the division 3 tennis community, and I expect that it is irreplaceable, but... this will be a blog where people can get a little more in terms of quantity (though probably not quality). It will also be a place where people can share their viewpoints, as long as they're constructive and well reasoned and not obviously inflammatory and abrasive. Without further ado, let's talk some tennis.